Recipe for an invite to the dance?
- Thread starter BJ4TIDE
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There's been a few in the low to high 60's get in , particularly 2011. There's been a few in the 20's get left out scattered among the years but that was in larger part due to overall record and conference strength when combined. For the most part it's been a pretty big indicator when factoring schedule record and conference strength. I think this year Bama will sit pretty well at the end of the season with a good rpi and overall record and conference record
I got to watch Auburn for the 1st time since our game last night. You guys are pretty darn good. The only issue I can see if obviously a big down low, but you guys make up for it with great rebounding guards and skilled shooting. I don't think I've seen a team with as many 3 point shooters as you guys have. You guys have to have the greatest percentage of your total points from 3 I've ever seen. Skilled basketball players are hard to come by.
I don’t remember who at the moment. It was a few years ago. It seems like it was a mid-major who won a bunch of games and was the reg season conf champ, but lost the the conf tourn which was the AQ. Their SOS was very weak. The “atmosphere” at the time was to reward those types of seasons. My point was that the Comm uses the rpi as only one of its tools in its selection process. I was reminded of the occasional “strangeness” of the rpi this year in comparing Bama to some of the other schools near it, and am glad it is not the final arbiter of selection or seeding.
Actually I find this to be true of any formula driven evaluation. We got into this discussion with regard to the football computer rankings. They have value, but it is limited.
Not limited that much at all this year. It’s actually a little more important when consider the committee’s new quadrant win formula for quality wins. The quadrant win system is strictly RPI driven.
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4-2 is a realistic stretch goal, especially if we play well in the losses.
In all likelihood, that would mean taking care of business at home, and beating either Kentucky or aTm on the road.
It demands a consistency that we honestly haven't shown yet, but maybe (maybe!) are turning the corner on.
This Saturday, we need to play well. A win would be great. But it's at least as important that, if we lose, we play well in defeat.
The UK team will gather itself, and the crowd will be raucous....so long as things go well. But I think it will be a brittle bravado....they have four consecutive losses, and are a major lucky break (against a mediocre Vandy team) away from a five-game game skid. They're shaken and doubting themselves. To mix similes, like the cornered wounded blue-blood program they are, they'll come out with their hair on fire.
We'll need to withstand the initial onslaughts at the tip and the start of the 2nd half, and make them (the team and the crowd) sweat. If we can do that, the doubts that the Big Blue nation already have will become front of mind. The team will hear voices, the crowd will get quiet, and there is nothing so intimidating to a home team as a quiet arena.
In all likelihood, that would mean taking care of business at home, and beating either Kentucky or aTm on the road.
It demands a consistency that we honestly haven't shown yet, but maybe (maybe!) are turning the corner on.
This Saturday, we need to play well. A win would be great. But it's at least as important that, if we lose, we play well in defeat.
The UK team will gather itself, and the crowd will be raucous....so long as things go well. But I think it will be a brittle bravado....they have four consecutive losses, and are a major lucky break (against a mediocre Vandy team) away from a five-game game skid. They're shaken and doubting themselves. To mix similes, like the cornered wounded blue-blood program they are, they'll come out with their hair on fire.
We'll need to withstand the initial onslaughts at the tip and the start of the 2nd half, and make them (the team and the crowd) sweat. If we can do that, the doubts that the Big Blue nation already have will become front of mind. The team will hear voices, the crowd will get quiet, and there is nothing so intimidating to a home team as a quiet arena.
Good article on rpi in selection and it's impact in determining success in the tournament....thought it mayfit in here
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.nc...-does-top-rpi-ranking-predict-ncaa-tournament
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.nc...-does-top-rpi-ranking-predict-ncaa-tournament
Oh, gag, don't remind me. It seemed we had teams capable of deep runs in the tournament, and we would get paired against the hot team or the emotional or sentimental favorite all the stinking time. There was Providence (I've disliked Petino and Donovan ever since.), South Alabama (Peanut Butter and Jelly- I got in trouble for punching a hole in a door on that one.), and Loyola Marymount (They had the emotional situation with Gathers passing away.). Wimp had very, very good teams, but we never could break that sweet 16 round curse.
Lunardi has us as a 6 seed in Dallas now moving up. This really makes me wonder now what our ceiling really is. I would rather be a 6 seed than be apart of the dreaded 5/12 matchup.
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Note Purdue in that bracket. Guess who took their spot as the last 1 seed? :biggrin2:
Lunardi has us as a 6 seed in Dallas now moving up. This really makes me wonder now what our ceiling really is. I would rather be a 6 seed than be apart of the dreaded 5/12 matchup.
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Look at the region Lunardi has you guys in though. Based on that projection, we would have an easier road to the final four than you guys. You’re side of that bracket projection is BRUTAL.
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Whoa buddy. If Auburn got to sweet sixteen and played Arizona, it would be brutal. We witnessed Deandre Ayton first hand in December.
Us versus NC State would be interesting. Mark Gottfried would be singing, "Mem'ries light the corners of my mind
Lunardi has us as a 6 seed in Dallas now moving up. This really makes me wonder now what our ceiling really is. I would rather be a 6 seed than be apart of the dreaded 5/12 matchup.
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Misty water-colored mem'ries of the way we were......"
It was probably a C+ effort though. We opened shooting something like 1-15 from the floor. Luckily, UK couldn’t take advantage and build a lead and our shots started falling. We were also down and out when UK took their biggest lead in the second half, but Bryce Brown, bad shoulder and all, willed us back into it on the offensive end while UK went ice cold on their end of the court, Anfernee locking down the paint against multiple guys with 4+ inches on him.
Regarding weaknesses, you're spot on. When we encounter a team that has size and rangy guards that can shoot and match our aggression, it's going to be a problem when it comes time to survive and advance.
That being said, great guard play is what will carry you deep into the tourney, and we have that, but there's a very thin line between greatness and irrelevance and all it takes is one bad night or match-up.
Y’all laid out the blueprint on how to knock us off. Slow it down, force us to work out of the half court and make the most of your opportunities. UK implemented the strategy well last night, but they didn’t have John Petty lighting us up like Bama does and couldn't keep up the pace inside of the final 7-8 minutes.
From an unbiased perspective, I think it’s hard not to appreciate what Auburn is doing this year. Come whatever may from the investigation and no matter what you think of him, Bruce's bona fides as a program builder and coach really can't be questioned at this point. The guy can just flat do it.
Lunardi now has us a 7 seed. We are still in good shape as far as making the dance.
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Here are my thoughts as of today.
If we finish:
3-0 No brainer we are in
2-1 win 2 at home and lose to A&M highly like we are in
1-2- it get s dicey here. it depends on how the rest of the league does and what the pecking order is. If we finish worse than 7th in the league there are no guarantees.
0-3 Highly like we are out as we'd finish probably around 9th or 10th in the league and would be limping into the SEC tournament
Wildcard- SEC tournament we win or finish as runner up- I think that will get us in. Frankly it might better for us to play on the 2nd day so we could get another win. Depending on the draw, this could be the most wide open SEC tournament in recent memory.
Don't forget about the mid major upsets in the conference tournaments which will cause a few bubble teams to miss the big dance. We need to be cheering for the favorites to win. The committee has screwed us before so we need to take care of business by winning out the regular season and make it next to impossible to leave us out.
If we finish:
3-0 No brainer we are in
2-1 win 2 at home and lose to A&M highly like we are in
1-2- it get s dicey here. it depends on how the rest of the league does and what the pecking order is. If we finish worse than 7th in the league there are no guarantees.
0-3 Highly like we are out as we'd finish probably around 9th or 10th in the league and would be limping into the SEC tournament
Wildcard- SEC tournament we win or finish as runner up- I think that will get us in. Frankly it might better for us to play on the 2nd day so we could get another win. Depending on the draw, this could be the most wide open SEC tournament in recent memory.
Don't forget about the mid major upsets in the conference tournaments which will cause a few bubble teams to miss the big dance. We need to be cheering for the favorites to win. The committee has screwed us before so we need to take care of business by winning out the regular season and make it next to impossible to leave us out.
Since we haven’t been in a while, they aren’t going to give us the benefit of the doubt.
I think 3-0 it is a lock even if we lose by 30 in the first game of the SECT.
At 2-1 I think we are in good shape. A loss at the SEC would be overlooked as long as it isn’t too embarrassing.
I think 1-2 it gets tricky. We would be 9-9 and 18-13. That could do it, but I think we’d need at least one win in the tourney.
Going 0-3 would be a disaster. That would be a five game losing streak and a record of 8-10 and 17-14. We’d need to make some noise at the tournament to get in the NCAA.
What we don’t need is a bunch of bottom feeders pulling upsets and popping bubbles everywhere.
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I think 3-0 it is a lock even if we lose by 30 in the first game of the SECT.
At 2-1 I think we are in good shape. A loss at the SEC would be overlooked as long as it isn’t too embarrassing.
I think 1-2 it gets tricky. We would be 9-9 and 18-13. That could do it, but I think we’d need at least one win in the tourney.
Going 0-3 would be a disaster. That would be a five game losing streak and a record of 8-10 and 17-14. We’d need to make some noise at the tournament to get in the NCAA.
What we don’t need is a bunch of bottom feeders pulling upsets and popping bubbles everywhere.
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