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SBNation has their indepth Pre Season rankings out.

R

Redwood Forrest

Hall of Fame
Sep 19, 2003
11,046
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Boaz, AL USA
Bill Connelly gives us his (S&P) preseason rankings for 2018 with Alabama, Auburn and Georgia all in the top ten.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-fo...86/2018-college-football-rankings-projections

I love stats and I keep busy with them. It is a lot of work but I enjoy it better than TV. Plus it is fun.

In 2015 my stat system (R&R) beat all the polls in picking conference champions. In 2016 they dipped down to finish 4th. In 2017 they rebounded to finish 1st again. I tweak them each year so who knows about this coming season, though that changes little -- I guess that is why it is called "tweaking."

In 2017 R&R picked 7 or the 10 Power Five Championship teams while most others picked 6 of the 10. R&R picked all 128 teams regular season and beat both SBN and Phil Steele. It was close but R&R beat 'em. For a boy raised on a farm I thought that was awesome, although Bill and Phil might have been raised on a farm too, for all I know. ;)

Lasy year's conference championship game pickens were: Street & Smith 4-6. Phil Steele, USA/Today Coaches Poll and Massey Computer all at 5-5. Athlon, Lindy's, Sporting News, AP, S&P and Sagarin at 6-10. R&R picked 7 of the 10 correctly. R&R had FSU/Miami, Ohio St/Wisconsin, Oklahoma/Texas, USC/Stanford and Alabama/Georgia. I missed on FSU, Texas and Alabama.

For 2018 the predictions from the two I have seen are:
S&P has the five CG as:.... Clemson/Miami, Ohio St/Wisconsin, Alabama/Georgia, Stanford/ USC and Oklahoma/Okla St with the favorite listed first.
R&R has the five CG as:........... FSU/Miami, Ohio St/Nebraska, Alabama/Georgia, USC/Stanford and Oklahoma/Texas with the favorite listed first.

I don't agree with my stats on FSU or Nebraska but that is what they predict, so I will respectfully disagree with myself.
 
B

BamaMan09

All-SEC
Feb 26, 2009
1,852
0
0
The opener between Auburn and Washington will sure be interesting to watch. The Huskies are supposed to be very good but you know the barn has recruited better overall players and the game is in Atlanta.
 
R

Redwood Forrest

Hall of Fame
Sep 19, 2003
11,046
913
237
77
Boaz, AL USA
BamaMan09 said:
The opener between Auburn and Washington will sure be interesting to watch. The Huskies are supposed to be very good but you know the barn has recruited better overall players and the game is in Atlanta.
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R&R has Auburn -1.5 vs Washington. S&P has Washington -8 vs Auburn. I give a five year 50% weighed recruiting in my calculation and Mr. Connelly gives a 2 year weighed recruiting for 25%. I wonder which two years he uses? 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 or 2018? I use all five years with 2014 and 2018 calculated at 50%. That is because '14 only has the redshirts who didn't go pro left and '18 will have at least half the team redshirted or not contributing much at all. That is my tweak for this season on recruiting. I figured the middle three years would have more participation and needed 100% calculation. I am playing guessing game with this.
 
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Tider n LA

Tider n LA

All-SEC
Dec 7, 2003
1,224
356
107
Alabama
GrayTide said:
Statistics aside, Washington ain't going to beat auburn.
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I lot of folks said ucf wasn't going to beat the boogs but you see what happened. What would be funny is if the boogs lose, that will be 0-3 in Atlanta since the famous 49 million dollar extension.
 
Intl.Aperture

Intl.Aperture

All-American
Aug 12, 2015
3,681
23
57
Chesapeake, Virginia
Tider n LA said:
I lot of folks said ucf wasn't going to beat the boogs but you see what happened. What would be funny is if the boogs lose, that will be 0-3 in Atlanta since the famous 49 million dollar extension.
Click to expand...
Not to derail this thread, but this was Bama VS Ok in 2013. Auburn had nothing to gain from that game and UCF had everything (from a program standpoint) to gain.
Had Auburn gone in there and played like they did in the first game against Georgia or against Alabama it would have been a curb stomping. Auburn never got on the bus to go to the game. Their season had it's heart ripped out when they lost the rematch in the conference championship and then had to watch the arch-rival that it actually beat get selected to the playoff (and then go on to win, no less!).

Give credit to UCF for their season, but the bowl win is a bit misleading, IMHO.
 
rgw

rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
1,351
232
Tuscaloosa
BamaMan09 said:
The opener between Auburn and Washington will sure be interesting to watch. The Huskies are supposed to be very good but you know the barn has recruited better overall players and the game is in Atlanta.
Click to expand...
I think Auburn drops that game and their road trips to Athens and Tuscaloosa. A tough 9-3 record where they lose to the two SECCG participants and two CFP participants.
 
rgw

rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
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Tuscaloosa
Washington has a good defense and a senior backfield. I think Auburn is going to struggle offensively and Browning & Gaskins will make a few more plays than Stidham.
 
Tider n LA

Tider n LA

All-SEC
Dec 7, 2003
1,224
356
107
Alabama
Intl.Aperture said:
Not to derail this thread, but this was Bama VS Ok in 2013. Auburn had nothing to gain from that game and UCF had everything (from a program standpoint) to gain.
Had Auburn gone in there and played like they did in the first game against Georgia or against Alabama it would have been a curb stomping. Auburn never got on the bus to go to the game. Their season had it's heart ripped out when they lost the rematch in the conference championship and then had to watch the arch-rival that it actually beat get selected to the playoff (and then go on to win, no less!).

Give credit to UCF for their season, but the bowl win is a bit misleading, IMHO.
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I guess auburn should have declined the bowl invitation since they had nothing to gain. I wish programs and fans would quit using that excuse for a loss. I would think any college football player would want to win every game they play and every game a program wins counts for something.
 
Intl.Aperture

Intl.Aperture

All-American
Aug 12, 2015
3,681
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57
Chesapeake, Virginia
Tider n LA said:
I guess auburn should have declined the bowl invitation since they had nothing to gain. I wish programs and fans would quit using that excuse for a loss. I would think any college football player would want to win every game they play and every game a program wins counts for something.
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They should have declined because they clearly didn't care. It's a real reason. Take umbrage with the players who give half effort. Not all of them do, but enough.

Coaches talk about the difficulty of motivating players through a long season and then you wonder how it's possible that a team with a season like Auburn's shows up flat in the postseason against a team like UCF?


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RTR91

RTR91

Super Moderator
Nov 23, 2007
39,407
6
0
Prattville
Intl.Aperture said:
They should have declined because they clearly didn't care. It's a real reason. Take umbrage with the players who give half effort. Not all of them do, but enough.

Coaches talk about the difficulty of motivating players through a long season and then you wonder how it's possible that a team with a season like Auburn's shows up flat in the postseason against a team like UCF?


Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Not only that but many key contributors were injured for the game and didn't play.


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R

Redwood Forrest

Hall of Fame
Sep 19, 2003
11,046
913
237
77
Boaz, AL USA
Tider n LA said:
I guess auburn should have declined the bowl invitation since they had nothing to gain. I wish programs and fans would quit using that excuse for a loss. I would think any college football player would want to win every game they play and every game a program wins counts for something.
Click to expand...
I understand were you are coming from but football is a game of emotions and sometimes our emotional state is not good. When Florida crushed our dream in 2008 and we went down to N.O. to play that mighty juggernaut the Utah Utes I had the same "who cares" attitude our players did. Who wanted to play Utah when we were dreaming of Ohio State or Texas? Remember that score? Remember how Utah ran over, around and through our sleep walking team? Coach Saban tried his best to motivate but it didn't happen. Twice he told us (through the meida) that our team was not taking the game seriously) and it showed. It was embarrassing but I couldn't blame our team for having the same attitude I had. I was afraid it was going to be deflated Bama facing that pumped up mad hornets nest with a chip on their shoulder. I was not looking forward to that game. If you were pumped up and looking forward to Utah then I concede you are a better fan than I am. I will add that the Aubies I know were in than numbed "who gives a dang" state about UCF.
 
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rgw

rgw

Suspended
Sep 15, 2003
20,852
1,351
232
Tuscaloosa
Johnson clearly took a hit in the Iron Bowl that gimped him for the rest of the season. He was the centerpiece of their offense. Stidham uptick was directly related to their OL and Johnson carrying the rock becoming an unstoppable force in the second half of their season. We saw what they looked like in the postseason without a 100% Johnson.


I have my doubts about Auburn but their schedule after Washington up to @UGA is very favorable with their two hardest games in that stretch at home.
 
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