What's funny is I've heard that same speech since 1980, and the GOP is 6-4 in that time frame.
Everybody can always tell me ON PAPER how all it's gonna work.
I watched Bill Clinton saddled with a 42% approval, 53% disapproval heading into Christmas 1994. He couldn't possibly win, all the GOP had to do was run a paper bag against him......he won.
I've seen this with Reagan (35% approval in January 1983).
In January 2012, Romney was 2 up on Obama.
Let me just say this: IF the Democrats are stupid enough to just nominate "anybody" (and their history during my lifetime tells me they are more often than not), get ready for four more years of the Cheeto. "Well, once people actually see how so and so really is" - and that's when they decide, "Hey, we need to nominate a nutbag since we can't possibly lose."
It's NOT enough to just say "I'm not as bad as the other person." Not at the national level against an incumbent.
Carter ran on honesty in government.
Reagan beat Carter - whose entire re-election campaign was "this guy is gonna start WW3" - with "the time is now for leadership."
Clinton beat Bush - whose entire campaign was "but he's lying" - with "we want opportunity, we demand responsibility" as the supporting base
of "it's the economy, stupid"
Bush II beat Kerry - whose entire campaign was some kind of nonsense about "I went to Vietnam."
Trump - whose slogan was "Make America Great Again" - beat the other narcissist, who spent 25 years planning to run for the office without ever once formulating WHY she wanted it (this was even the assessment of her own supporters working with her in "Shattered" - they seriously thought about the slogan "Because It's Her Turn" as insane as that sounds)
In the TV age, a general and catchy guideline that spells out a GENERAL vision is necessary.
As insane as it sounds now, beating an incumbent President (and I'll even say this if Trump is gone and Pence is there) is NOT nearly as easy as it sounds on paper. Gerald Ford was not even elected Vice President, much less President. He was a bumbling oaf at a time when the Democratic Party BY FAR was the majority party in the country. He had to claw out his nomination against Reagan at the Convention and trailed by 33 points in August. He had pardoned the felon who got him the job in the first place.
He came within 23,000 votes in two states of winning election despite all I listed above.
And the moment the other party takes over Congress - and becomes responsible for government - it's quite amazing what a transformation most Presidents undergo in how they're perceived.
However - I'll grant that where Trump is concerned on must subjects, you throw the book out.
