Alabama QB competition article

B1GTide

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After the LSU and Mississippi State games my friend and I were certain we could not beat Auburn with only a running game and going three & out. We were right.
I think that Auburn was just on fire when you played them. Remember, Clemson beat Auburn and Jalen beat Clemson last year. Alabama was good enough to beat Auburn last year with Jalen - just not that week. That week it looked like Auburn knew every defensive play call. They picked up every one of your blitzes as if they knew the calls.
 

gtgilbert

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Then we move forward to the Miss. State game. I'm not sure Tua could have played much better. Alabama's offense was kept off the field most of the game, Hurts came in and had what might have been the best game of his career when you consider what was on the line. That's the point where I wonder if Tua had started are we sure that turns out the same way? One big mistake and Miss. State might have won the game.
I guess I see the MSU game a little differently. Yes, jalen deserves a lot of credit for the last minute heroics to pull off the win. The flip side of that, as you mentioned, was that our offense was kept off the field most of the game. We had several 3 and outs and a couple other drives that were also very short. We had no sustained, time consuming drives, really only moving the ball with long plays. Jalen ran 19 times, the same # as ALL the RBs combined but only got 40 yards. He was 10/18 passing, with over half the yardage coming on two big plays. watching the game and the RBs and WRs were visibly upset. Because of the nature of plays were ran with Jalen, what we don't know is how many of those 19 rushes he took, should have been handoffs to RBs he decided to keep? How many of them should have been throws he but he decided to pull it down and run instead? Defenses knew what to show Jalen to get him to react a certain way - the offense was diagnosed and they could bait Jalen into the lower percentage plays or plays were they could more easily defend him - yes, they knew he'd get a long play every once and a while, but they also knew our success rate would be lower and we'd have a ton of short drives, exposing our depleted defense and keeping them on the field longer. A&M, LSU, MSU, Aubarn, Clemson and Georgia all did the same thing. Even FSU did to some degree. The D kept FSU (with no QB), LSU or clemson from being close games MSU almost got us, the barn did, and without Tua, UGA did.
 

BamaMoon

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As others stated, it's all speculation. But here's my take:

I do believe that Tua would have struggled with FSU in the opening game, but I'm of the opinion he was probably good enough and learning fast enough (and his learning would have been accelerated at a rapid pace in games in games 2-5 against Fresno St. Col. St, Vandy and Ole Sis) so much that he would have been a more effective starter as the season wore on last year. Here's why I think that:

The biggest Straw Man argument that keeps getting brought up is that Tua would have been "pick 6" prone. The problem with this argument is that it doesn't account for the increase in passing plays he would have completed to stop so many of those 3 and outs Jalen was continuing to rack up. Tau, no doubt, would have thrown for more 3rd down conversions, more explosive passing plays and ultimately TDs. Not only that, our RBs would have been getting more touches to compliment the offense and keep them happy. AND, our disgruntled receivers wouldn't have been complaining with Tua at QB for the majority of the season. Tua might have thrown a few INTs if he would have played most of the '17 season??? Or might he have thrown a pick 6 a time or two? Maybe or probably, but I contend all the good would have been much more than any negatives so much that a pick 6 probably wouldn't have cost us a game.

But since Tua didn't play and Jalen did, let's give credit where credit is due. His signature is on 12 wins last year.

But I'm pretty confident Tua's contribution would have had a significant impact on our team last year that would have no doubt made our offense better and kept our defense off the field and might have cut down on some of those injuries we kept experiencing.
 

rgw

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I think that Auburn was just on fire when you played them. Remember, Clemson beat Auburn and Jalen beat Clemson last year. Alabama was good enough to beat Auburn last year with Jalen - just not that week. That week it looked like Auburn knew every defensive play call. They picked up every one of your blitzes as if they knew the calls.
It was pretty crazy how well their frankly mediocre pass-pro OL (though those boys could get after it on the ground) handled the blitz packages when their tape gave every indication they were prone to miss assignments if you put pressure on them. I think they must've had some tells or knew some of the likely more limited set of defensive signals considering the inexperience at ILB by that point in the season. I'm leaning towards the signals being too predictable/limited and Auburn just flat out knowing what was coming more than their fair share.
 

RTR91

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It was pretty crazy how well their frankly mediocre pass-pro OL (though those boys could get after it on the ground) handled the blitz packages when their tape gave every indication they were prone to miss assignments if you put pressure on them. I think they must've had some tells or knew some of the likely more limited set of defensive signals considering the inexperience at ILB by that point in the season. I'm leaning towards the signals being too predictable/limited and Auburn just flat out knowing what was coming more than their fair share.
IIRC, most of their passes were quick to negate Alabama's pass rush. That was the main reason for Auburn's success in the passing game this year.
 

gtgilbert

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It was pretty crazy how well their frankly mediocre pass-pro OL (though those boys could get after it on the ground) handled the blitz packages when their tape gave every indication they were prone to miss assignments if you put pressure on them. I think they must've had some tells or knew some of the likely more limited set of defensive signals considering the inexperience at ILB by that point in the season. I'm leaning towards the signals being too predictable/limited and Auburn just flat out knowing what was coming more than their fair share.
we were very, very limited in what we could do against auburn. We just didn't have the horses with experience at ILB to bring a lot of variety. SDH out, Holcombe had fallen off and lost his starting dime LB role to Wilson, and wilson was trying to play on one leg. Moses has immense talent, but I am sure at that point was still somewhat limited in the breadth of defenses he was able to play in. At OLB we were trying to get Lewis and Miller back after injury and it was clear they also were not yet at full speed either.
 

rgw

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The thing that killed us on some 3rd downs were crossing routes though. I agree, they were throwing them out quick most of the time but when it really counted they were getting enough pass protection to let a receiver move across the field.
 

Bamabuzzard

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The things that killed us on some 3rd downs were crossing routes though. I agree, they were throwing them out quick most of the time but when it really counted they were getting enough pass protection to let a receiver move across the field.
The quarterback did a bang up job of sliding to his left or right when we sent pressure from one side, buying him a second or two, which is more than enough for an underneath crossing receiver to come open. They did it to us all game.
 

TiderJack

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IIRC, most of their passes were quick to negate Alabama's pass rush. That was the main reason for Auburn's success in the passing game this year.
I know that 80% of their passing yards against UGA in the reg season game was mostly on screen passes and the other was swing passes to RB's or WR's. The only pass they completed downfield was the 40+ yard bomb just before halftime. It was similar in our game but they did complete 2 or 3 mid range crossing patterns that were 10-15 yards downfield.
 

KrAzY3

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I guess I see the MSU game a little differently. Yes, jalen deserves a lot of credit for the last minute heroics to pull off the win. The flip side of that, as you mentioned, was that our offense was kept off the field most of the game
I suppose we do, because in the game I watched, the defense couldn't get off the field against Miss. State. Miss. State shortened the game with long clock eating drives.

To that point, Alabama had the ball 21 minutes to Miss. State's nearly 39 minutes. But wait, was Alabama's offense kept in check while Miss. State ran all over Alabama? Not really, Alabama had 19 first downs and Miss. State had 22. Alabama actually not only outscored Miss. State, but they out-gained them by over 100 yards. This was actually a very efficient Alabama offense, they scored and moved the ball well in the short window they had it. 31 points and 444 yards in 21 minutes of possession time is fantastic. Miss. State managed to put Alabama's backs against the wall, simply by slow, plodding, clock eating drives. Managing to stretch 330 yards over nearly 39 minutes of possession is also a remarkable feat. What this did though was make Alabama's margin of error very low, thus any major mistakes would have lost the game for Alabama.

As to Tua and what could or would have happened, we all saw what could have happened. We saw a tremendously talented but also inexperienced and mistake prone quarterback. That's just reality, yes more talented than Jalen, yes capable of more, but this is also the guy who got yanked twice from games because he wasn't able to manage the offense correctly. That's the sort of thing you expect from a true freshman. Now logically at some point those things would have smoothed themselves out, but during what stretch of games would those growing pains not pose a risk?
 
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drwho

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As to Tua and what could or would have happened, we all saw what could have happened. We saw a tremendously talented but also inexperienced and mistake prone quarterback.
Tua didn't play enough to call him "mistake prone."
 

BamaInBham

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I suppose we do, because in the game I watched, the defense couldn't get off the field against Miss. State. Miss. State shortened the game with long clock eating drives.

To that point, Alabama had the ball 21 minutes to Miss. State's nearly 39 minutes. But wait, was Alabama's offense kept in check while Miss. State ran all over Alabama? Not really, Alabama had 19 first downs and Miss. State had 22. Alabama actually not only outscored Miss. State, but they out-gained them by over 100 yards. This was actually a very efficient Alabama offense, they scored and moved the ball well in the short window they had it. 31 points and 444 yards in 21 minutes of possession time is fantastic. Miss. State managed to put Alabama's backs against the wall, simply by slow, plodding, clock eating drives. Managing to stretch 330 yards over nearly 39 minutes of possession is also a remarkable feat. What this did though was make Alabama's margin of error very low, thus any major mistakes would have lost the game for Alabama.

As to Tua and what could or would have happened, we all saw what could have happened. We saw a tremendously talented but also inexperienced and mistake prone quarterback. That's just reality, yes more talented than Jalen, yes capable of more, but this is also the guy who got yanked twice from games because he wasn't able to manage the offense correctly. That's the sort of thing you expect from a true freshman. Now logically at some point those things would have smoothed themselves out, but during what stretch of games would those growing pains not pose a risk?
He would have "grown up" in the soft part of the schedule. He would have benefitted greatly from first team reps as he did in the playoff lead-up. He makes mistakes, as does every other QB, but IMO, there's not enough evidence to call him "mistake prone". He threw 2 ints in 77 passes, lost 0 fumbles, and had a great 5.5 TD to int ratio. He had a spectacular 175 QB rating. We're all just speculating, but it's very reasonable to say that he could have led Bama to an undefeated season. One thing is for certain: In Tua's playing history, his mistakes were not a problem, and they almost fade into nothing in comparison to the positives gained by his insertion into the lineup.
 

KrAzY3

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Tua didn't play enough to call him "mistake prone."
He made "freshman mistakes", clearly. He is an amazing talent, and I it might sound like my comments as an attack on Tua (they're not, he should be the starter from here on out), but I watched him get pulled from the CSU game because of issues. I watched him need to come out after Alabama wasted clock at the end of the Georgia game. I saw some of the things you expect from a true freshman. This has absolutely nothing to do with Tua, and everything to do with what you expect from a true freshman. Clearly he was better than like 99% of the true freshman QBs out there, it's not about that. Inexperienced players make mistakes, it's what they do.

He would have "grown up" in the soft part of the schedule.
The problem was Alabama didn't start with a soft part. Going back to A-Day, which I did in my first post in this topic, we saw that Hurts clearly managed an elite defense better than Tua. No knock on Tua, that's an experience issue. But to assume the Tua we saw against Georgia would have been the Tua we saw against FSU? That's a stretch, because the Tua that faced FSU would have looked a lot more like the one that faced CSU. I do agree that a nice soft patch of games would have cleaned up most that stuff though, I just have trouble finding the spot to do that, as mop-up duty by itself wasn't enough. Do you start him after the FSU game? That's the best window I see for that to occur, but I'm not sure any coach in the country would sit their starting QB after he just beat one of the top teams in the country.

My main point though is that while I'll concede that from the Auburn game on Tua might have been the better choice, it's really hard to find a "safe" spot to start him earlier. Hurts steered Alabama through rough waters, and Tua saved Alabama's season. Those two things co-exist just fine.
 
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drwho

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He made "freshman mistakes", clearly. He is an amazing talent, and I it might sound like my comments as an attack on Tua (they're not, he should be the starter from here on out), but I watched him get pulled from the CSU game because of issues. I watched him need to come out after Alabama wasted clock at the end of the Georgia game. I saw some of the things you expect from a true freshman. This has absolutely nothing to do with Tua, and everything to do with what you expect from a true freshman. Clearly he was better than like 99% of the true freshman QBs out there, it's not about that. Inexperienced players make mistakes, it's what they do.
And, making freshman mistakes is not being "mistake prone," big difference. If we knew which plays were called during the year, I'd be willing to bet that Hurts made more mistakes, by running the ball as often as he did with wide open receivers.
 

UAllday

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we were very, very limited in what we could do against auburn. We just didn't have the horses with experience at ILB to bring a lot of variety. SDH out, Holcombe had fallen off and lost his starting dime LB role to Wilson, and wilson was trying to play on one leg. Moses has immense talent, but I am sure at that point was still somewhat limited in the breadth of defenses he was able to play in. At OLB we were trying to get Lewis and Miller back after injury and it was clear they also were not yet at full speed either.
delete
 
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KrAzY3

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And, making freshman mistakes is not being "mistake prone," big difference. If we knew which plays were called during the year, I'd be willing to bet that Hurts made more mistakes, by running the ball as often as he did with wide open receivers.
That might not have been the best wording. I meant mistake prone not as an innate characteristic of Tua, not at all. It was just in regards to inexperience. I think a couple more starts under his belt and that sort of thing should be behind him.
 

gtgilbert

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I suppose we do, because in the game I watched, the defense couldn't get off the field against Miss. State. Miss. State shortened the game with long clock eating drives.

To that point, Alabama had the ball 21 minutes to Miss. State's nearly 39 minutes. But wait, was Alabama's offense kept in check while Miss. State ran all over Alabama? Not really, Alabama had 19 first downs and Miss. State had 22. Alabama actually not only outscored Miss. State, but they out-gained them by over 100 yards. This was actually a very efficient Alabama offense, they scored and moved the ball well in the short window they had it. 31 points and 444 yards in 21 minutes of possession time is fantastic. Miss. State managed to put Alabama's backs against the wall, simply by slow, plodding, clock eating drives. Managing to stretch 330 yards over nearly 39 minutes of possession is also a remarkable feat. What this did though was make Alabama's margin of error very low, thus any major mistakes would have lost the game for Alabama.

As to Tua and what could or would have happened, we all saw what could have happened. We saw a tremendously talented but also inexperienced and mistake prone quarterback. That's just reality, yes more talented than Jalen, yes capable of more, but this is also the guy who got yanked twice from games because he wasn't able to manage the offense correctly. That's the sort of thing you expect from a true freshman. Now logically at some point those things would have smoothed themselves out, but during what stretch of games would those growing pains not pose a risk?
So we both see that Alabama lost the ToP significantly during the game, and you credit MSU with shortening the game with clock eating drives, as they deserve. Wouldn't it then be our offenses fault that they did not also dominate the clock, or at least attempt to?

The playbook against us since the middle of 2016 was to defend the short part of the field, with the risk of giving up some long plays. With this mentality, even when Bama scores, it's usually the result of a long play instead of a sustained, time consuming drive. Our most time consuming first half drive against, score or not, was only 2:02 and that was right at the end of the half, our average clock consumed on a drive was around 1:35. For the entire game, the offense only had TWO drives that consumed more that 2:30 and NO DRIVE took more than 4:30 and on our most time consuming drive, we had to convert on a 4th down to keep it going. Defenses scheme to this because it basically pushes us to either strike out fast, or hit a homerun. They don't let us play small ball to get runners around the bases. The reason they do that? They know it will wear our our defense and we are too good when we are fresh, so that's the best option to have a chance. Dabo even had a play count he was targeting to run in the first half against us remember? It became easy to scheme us into that trap. It's EXACTLY what we used to do with our offenses being able to sustain long, time consuming drives that simply wore the other defense out, and our offense the last couple of years fell directly into the same pitfall.
 

B1GTide

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So we both see that Alabama lost the ToP significantly during the game, and you credit MSU with shortening the game with clock eating drives, as they deserve. Wouldn't it then be our offenses fault that they did not also dominate the clock, or at least attempt to?

The playbook against us since the middle of 2016 was to defend the short part of the field, with the risk of giving up some long plays. With this mentality, even when Bama scores, it's usually the result of a long play instead of a sustained, time consuming drive. Our most time consuming first half drive against, score or not, was only 2:02 and that was right at the end of the half, our average clock consumed on a drive was around 1:35. For the entire game, the offense only had TWO drives that consumed more that 2:30 and NO DRIVE took more than 4:30 and on our most time consuming drive, we had to convert on a 4th down to keep it going. Defenses scheme to this because it basically pushes us to either strike out fast, or hit a homerun. They don't let us play small ball to get runners around the bases. The reason they do that? They know it will wear our our defense and we are too good when we are fresh, so that's the best option to have a chance. Dabo even had a play count he was targeting to run in the first half against us remember? It became easy to scheme us into that trap. It's EXACTLY what we used to do with our offenses being able to sustain long, time consuming drives that simply wore the other defense out, and our offense the last couple of years fell directly into the same pitfall.
Kiffin brought that offense to Alabama. The advantage - you can score a ton of points very quickly. The disadvantage - your defense stays on the field too long and some teams are going to be able to take advantage of that.

But, IMO, the changes made to your offense by Daboll would have put you back on track if Jalen were a more capable/confident passer. My baseball analogy - Daboll called plays that were less "home run" and more "singles and doubles". Jalen just couldn't execute against better defenses, so the 3rd down execution killed drives. Too many strikeouts with 2 outs and a man on.
 

KrAzY3

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So we both see that Alabama lost the ToP significantly during the game, and you credit MSU with shortening the game with clock eating drives, as they deserve. Wouldn't it then be our offenses fault that they did not also dominate the clock, or at least attempt to?.
Yes, it would be, except that part is on Daboll. He organized the gameplan, he orchestrated things. If he'd instituted a plan like Miss. State, based around eating up clock then things would be different. The idea that Alabama didn't eat up more clock because of the QB isn't really true, because Alabama ran well that game, and it isn't as though Hurts can't throw short stuff. Look up the box score.

Edit:
Daboll consistently had Hurts attempt longer passes throughout the season. The issue with that is it doesn't eat up clock, ever. Either it works and it is a big play, or it doesn't and the clock stops. This was gameplanning. Even Kiffin retained the underneath. Hurts averaged 13.4 per completion. Nick averaged 6.6. Alabama also ran the ball better, averaging 5.3 to 3.5. The fact is that Alabama got outcoached that game, but fortunately not outplayed. I'm not saying Daboll's overall gameplan was a bad one either, but he absolutely could have ran the ball more and had more short passes, underneath, etc... that's exactly how Miss. State put Alabama on the ropes (it is also how Auburn beat Alabama).
 
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Crimson White

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Most of the year I thought Daboll was a poor offensive coordinator, but then, he looked pretty good when Saban let him play Tagovailoa. Kind of amazing the difference.

That aside, I'm not sure why we're obsessing so much about the Mississippi State game. It wasn't a great offensive game by any stretch, but in any event, there have been 2 years to judge Hurts, and against good defenses, a category in which I would not include MSU, he struggles.
 
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