RollBamaRoll.com did/does this effective run chart and a similar thing could be done for passing imo. I think if you broke down Jalen's passing by "expected yardage by down" you would find he's not that efficient at all.
1) the score was 28-0 when he threw itNot all INTs are created the same. You really have to look at the next series or two after an INT to figure out its impact.
For example, Tua threw 2 INTs last year.
The first one was a 90+ yard pick six against Tennessee. It cost Bama between 10-14 points. Very costly.
If I've heard correctly, he did royally botch that play - I believe it was supposed to be a screen and something happened or something.The second was picked off in the title game. On the next play Bama picked off UGA. It didn't cost Bama any points. In fact, we ended up with *better* field position after Raekwon Davis picked off Fromm. I wouldn't call that a positive INT, but it certainly wasn't as bad as the Tennessee pick.
Absolutely.Sometimes a long pass that's picked off on 3rd down is effectively a punt. Sometimes a pass is tipped by the WR and picked off.
You really have to look at each interception as a unique play.
Who called him a liability? If they did they were wrong or the context was misunderstood.He's not a liability....AT ALL.
We must have been sitting real near each other because it happened right in front of me in the endzone.1) the score was 28-0 when he threw it
2) the receivers on the offense bear a lot of the burden. YES, it was a terrible pass (it was right in front of me; in fact, I have the film clip on You Tube), but I also seem to recall Saban angry at the offense for lackadaisical pursuit, too
3) Tua would not have been in the game had it not been deemed "safe" at that point in time.
It was - on the scoreboard - costly, I do agree with that. In the larger picture, it was not so big. And he learned from it no doubt.
If I've heard correctly, he did royally botch that play - I believe it was supposed to be a screen and something happened or something.
The irony to me is this: he got incredibly lucky when he needed to (UGA) and incredibly unlucky when it didn't matter (Vols)
Absolutely.
A bomb at the end of the half that the other team comes down with usually doesn't matter except it lowers your turnover margin.
Please enlighten me. What high octane air attack won a college championship? What, like BYU's dubious one (even then they won with Robbie Bosco, not exactly Steven Young or Jim McMahon, but in the BCS or playoff era no way they win)? If you look at pretty much every single champion you usually see the same things, good defense, good running game. I mean I went over the list, the 100 most prolific college seasons passing, and only two won titles. Full of contenders, full of future NFLers, and yet a pretty darn low success rate (considering over much of the sample size there weren't much more than 100 college programs).The idea that you can't pass your way to a NC is just a fallacy in about eight different directions, namely because CFB is just a different game than the NFL.
Clemson?Please enlighten me. What high octane air attack won a college championship?
That's kind of cheating, because I already gave you that one.Clemson?
Crab Legs went off in 2013 for F$U - 4,057 yards 40 TD's 10 INT'sClemson?
Those are also literally the only two top 100 passing seasons to win National Titles (as I already mentioned)... But yeah, I'd tend to agree that if Bama has 4,000 yards and 40 TDs in the air they'll be tough to beat, heh. I'd still prefer balance that doesn't over rely on the quarterback.Crab Legs went off in 2013 for F$U - 4,057 yards 40 TD's 10 INT's
Deshaun Watson in 2016 for Clemson - 4,593 yards 41 TD's and 17 INT's
So yeah basically any year recently that 'Bama hasn't won the NC the team who did averaged 4,100 yards passing and 41TD's
I think you have to include tOSU tandem in there too. If Barrett doesn't get injured they still throw for those yards and TD's. It's gaudy TEAM passing stats either way.Those are also literally the only two top 100 passing seasons to win National Titles (as I already mentioned)... But yeah, I'd tend to agree that if Bama has 4,000 yards and 40 TDs in the air they'll be tough to beat, heh. I'd still prefer balance.
I was thinking Florida with Wuerffel, just for starters.Clemson?
Not in terms of single season, he has good total numbers but he never cracked the 4,000 yard or 40 TD mark (same with Wuerffel by the way).Matt Leinart wasn't a Top 100 passer?
See that's a real interesting point you bring up, because while Coker was nowhere near the top 100 passing seasons that year, Henry had one of the top rushing seasons ever. There's no way that was a high octane passing offense that year. Yet, somehow Kiffin and Coker managed to turn on the passing game when they needed it most. It also says something else about the passing game, which is you don't always need it, you just need to be able to do it.We only won in 2015 because Jake Coker saved his two best career games for last. He was Masterful against Clemson.
To your text in bold - good heavens.Not in terms of single season, he has good total numbers but he never cracked the 4,000 yard or 40 TD mark (same with Wuerffel by the way).
To walk things back a bit, my point isn't that great quarterbacks can't win championships or any nonsense like that. Obviously they can. Winston, Newton, and Watson come to mind (and I already mentioned them by name). But the point I'm making is we can't go oh Alabama has an NFL caliber passer, now they'll never lose! It just isn't as simple as that. There's plenty of NFL greats who played on great college teams and don't have any rings.
Heck, Watson almost lost to Hurts, a guy we all know isn't wasn't anywhere near being an NFL passer in that game. Clemson had tons of talent around Watson to, yet despite Watson playing an amazing game, they still almost lost. And, I think Tua is great, but do I think he can put up more yards (420 yards) in a championship game? Probably not. But, by throwing the ball 56 times, it also created an environment where Alabama still had a chance. So a big part of my point is I hope Alabama doesn't try to...
I'd argue that you can't be over-reliant on the running game either, Alabama moved the ball well with Hurts and the running game most the time, it was just a couple games where the lack of downfield passing really did harm. So think of it like this, just because Alabama could run all over teams with Hurts, doesn't mean they should have (and I said that at the time by the way, complaining they ran too much). So, the flip side is just because they can throw all over teams with Tua doesn't mean they should.
In the case of Tua I think the Alabama offense can do everything, but it will take a greater force of will to not just air things out, and to continue to maintain discipline, protect the football and keep up balance in the offense. If they do that, then Alabama might become unstoppable.
See that's a real interesting point you bring up, because while Coker was nowhere near the top 100 passing seasons that year, Henry had one of the top rushing seasons ever. There's no way that was a high octane passing offense that year. Yet, somehow Kiffin and Coker managed to turn on the passing game when they needed it most. It also says something else about the passing game, which is you don't always need it, you just need to be able to do it.
But that's actually to my point. I'm talking about a full season (and the undefeated in college nonsense). It isn't one game, or a few games, it's playing this out over a full season, or seasons and so many variables. Alabama would have lost if all they did was rely on Henry, despite how amazing Henry had been. Fortunately they managed to have a great passing game up their sleeves, but make no mistake had they not, they would have lost. Alabama couldn't run their way to a championship with Hurts or Henry, but I don't think they can just pass their way to one either (or it would be excessively risky, AJ and Blake both threw for 3,000 yards, neither won a championship that season). Alabama needs to both keep down the mistakes (as Winston, and Watson did) and find a way to keep the running game "sharp" so to speak. They didn't do that so well in 2013 and it cost them.
Very well said. 4000 yds/40 TDs is an unfair benchmark in CFB, especially given the rate at which backups play in garbage time.If you take out the 6 Saban national title teams, the worst statistical QB of any of those teams from 2003 to present is LSU's Matt Flynn. Basically every other QB was a minimum 3000 yard passer other than Tim Tebow '08 who added nearly 700 yards rushing. During The Saban Era of college football, when Saban has not lifted the trophy then the champion team almost always had a top-tier college quarterback who accounted for at least 3500 total yards and 30+ total touchdowns.
But, we are talking about Saban teams.If you take out the 6 Saban national title teams
I wasn't trying to make a benchmark when I pointed to top 100 in passing yards, just make a point that a prolific passing offense is not a sure fire way to win a championship or go undefeated.Very well said. 4000 yds/40 TDs is an unfair benchmark in CFB