RollBamaRoll.com did/does this effective run chart and a similar thing could be done for passing imo. I think if you broke down Jalen's passing by "expected yardage by down" you would find he's not that efficient at all.
Alabama QB competition article
- Thread starter Redwood Forrest
- Start date
1) the score was 28-0 when he threw it
2) the receivers on the offense bear a lot of the burden. YES, it was a terrible pass (it was right in front of me; in fact, I have the film clip on You Tube), but I also seem to recall Saban angry at the offense for lackadaisical pursuit, too
3) Tua would not have been in the game had it not been deemed "safe" at that point in time.
It was - on the scoreboard - costly, I do agree with that. In the larger picture, it was not so big. And he learned from it no doubt.
If I've heard correctly, he did royally botch that play - I believe it was supposed to be a screen and something happened or something.
The irony to me is this: he got incredibly lucky when he needed to (UGA) and incredibly unlucky when it didn't matter (Vols)
Absolutely.
A bomb at the end of the half that the other team comes down with usually doesn't matter except it lowers your turnover margin.
So, I was wrong (probably) and since this came across my twitter feed I figured I'd own up to it.
Keep in mind these are NFL stats not college stats so its likely pretty different and that Sacks has been separated out from scrambles but...
EPA per play in the NFL from 2009-2017
Rushes by non-QBs:-0.10
All dropbacks: +0.06
Designed QB runs:+0.25
QB Scrambles:+0.38
Sacks: -1.63
Pass attempts: +0.15
There are some caveats to this and it doesn't provide context. But still, scrambles and QB runs are clearly heavily undervalued in the NFL. I wish we had these numbers for college.
Keep in mind these are NFL stats not college stats so its likely pretty different and that Sacks has been separated out from scrambles but...
EPA per play in the NFL from 2009-2017
Rushes by non-QBs:-0.10
All dropbacks: +0.06
Designed QB runs:+0.25
QB Scrambles:+0.38
Sacks: -1.63
Pass attempts: +0.15
There are some caveats to this and it doesn't provide context. But still, scrambles and QB runs are clearly heavily undervalued in the NFL. I wish we had these numbers for college.
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Who called him a liability? If they did they were wrong or the context was misunderstood.
First, part of this is Dilfer poisoning the conversation with a stupid comment. But, and I've said this before, for my part at least I'm discussing inherent risks of the passing game. I use Drew Brees as an example because I can't think of a much better quarterback, but I've seen him lose games because of interceptions. Specifically this is something Saban mentioned about Tua, which is trying to put the ball into a tight window. In the NFL you have to do it more, but I don't think Saban wants Tua doing that often, in the least his comments indicate that, and for good reason.
In college, where one loss can cost you the season, 75%, or 80% really isn't good enough. You have to have extreme consistency, because unlike in the NFL, where you can lose several games and still earn a championship, just one bad day can be enough to keep you out of the title game. And, as I outlined, a bad day in terms of turnovers or what not does not necessarily mean the quarterback's play was even poor. There are just inherent risks to throwing the ball. Now people can bring this back to Hurts or what ever, but it isn't about him at all, it's just about college football and what the quarterback needs to do.
Time and time again it's been proven you can't just pass your way to a championship in college football. You could have a future NFL star throwing for 4,000+ yards, on a contender, and still they're probably not going to win a championship. Ask Sam Darnold, he might be the #1 pick, he played on a contender, he threw for 4,000 yards, but he doesn't have a ring. There's a reason for that, when a guy like Tim Tebow can have less than 3,000 yards passing, with something less than a legit NFL arm, and can still dominate on his way to a championship. The college game doesn't need you to make a lot of NFL throws, it just needs you to not make a lot of mistakes while being a competent passer. I'd add, this isn't just about turnovers, it's about things like throwing the ball on short yardage situations and getting away from sure things.
The key thing here to understand is that while it seems like Tua does improve Alabama's odds of winning a championship, it does not necessarily improve Alabama's odds of going undefeated. That will center around how reliant Alabama is on the passing game, because to reiterate, NFL caliber passing games are not necessarily the safest route to championships in college. Alabama has had a lot of their success with a strong running game that is complimented by a competent passing game. If Tua can do better that's great, but the offense shouldn't revolve around that.
To give one last example, in AJ's senior year Alabama passed more and ran less. Alabama was obviously trustworthy of AJ, but that season he protected the football a bit less. The running game didn't actually get worse, but they ran a lot less (5 less times per game). The problem as I see it wasn't AJ's play though, it was just that the offense leaned more heavily in AJ than they should have, and didn't focus on establishing a strong running game as much as they should have (remember they had Henry, didn't even use in in the Auburn game for example). The problem was, AJ was making it easy. Alabama was winning every game by like two touchdowns, at least, they were blowing everyone out. But, when they needed more, specifically a few yards on the ground they couldn't find it. Was it AJ's fault that Alabama's offense became over-reliant on the quarterback's arm? No, it wasn't. But it was still a bad thing...
We must have been sitting real near each other because it happened right in front of me in the endzone.
The INT against Georgia was a result of Tua missing a signal. It was supposed to be a QB run and Tua missed the sign. That's the reason the receivers were blocking down field.
One reason I won't stress over that INT is because it was probably just a result of not playing as much. A missed signal is easily correctable, especially when you start getting all the first team reps, like he will.
The idea that you can't pass your way to a NC is just a fallacy in about eight different directions, namely because CFB is just a different game than the NFL.
Please enlighten me. What high octane air attack won a college championship? What, like BYU's dubious one (even then they won with Robbie Bosco, not exactly Steven Young or Jim McMahon, but in the BCS or playoff era no way they win)? If you look at pretty much every single champion you usually see the same things, good defense, good running game. I mean I went over the list, the 100 most prolific college seasons passing, and only two won titles. Full of contenders, full of future NFLers, and yet a pretty darn low success rate (considering over much of the sample size there weren't much more than 100 college programs).
I reiterate, over reliance on the passing game is not a good way to win a championship in college. Furtheremore, and I thought my point made that clear, relying on the passing game is more successful in the NFL, namely because it is a different game with a different margin of error.
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That's kind of cheating, because I already gave you that one.
Edit: I'll have to find the totals from another page, but for instance in 2015 their rushing rank was higher than their passing rank. 2016 though, I believe, yeah they were more heavily reliant on the pass and still won. But Hurts almost beat 'em
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Crab Legs went off in 2013 for F$U - 4,057 yards 40 TD's 10 INT's
The Barrett/Jones combo in 2014 for OSU - 3,694 yards 41 TD's 12 INT's
Deshaun Watson in 2016 for Clemson - 4,593 yards 41 TD's and 17 INT's
So yeah basically any year recently that 'Bama hasn't won the NC the team who did averaged 4,100 yards passing and 41TD's
That's the type of production potential we have with Tua... in addition to our yearly Top 4 Defense and Stellar running game.
Those are also literally the only two top 100 passing seasons to win National Titles (as I already mentioned)... But yeah, I'd tend to agree that if Bama has 4,000 yards and 40 TDs in the air they'll be tough to beat, heh. I'd still prefer balance that doesn't over rely on the quarterback.
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Matt Leinart wasn't a Top 100 passer?
Also - "balance that doesn't over rely on the quarterback?" Literally no one is advocating that.
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Also - "balance that doesn't over rely on the quarterback?" Literally no one is advocating that.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I think you have to include tOSU tandem in there too. If Barrett doesn't get injured they still throw for those yards and TD's. It's gaudy TEAM passing stats either way.
But my main point is that the game has changed for most teams. The rules have slanted the advantages to Offensive teams and Passing in particular. We have been able to have enormous success with Balance that relied primarily on the running game but others have HAD to have a passing threat.
It has now finally caught up to us as well.
We only won in 2015 because Jake Coker saved his two best career games for last. He was Masterful against Clemson.
We lost in 2016 because we didn't have a real forward passing game that could score or move the ball for 1st downs.
We almost didn't win in 2017 for the same reason.... until we put in a Passing Phenom who torched the opponent for 2 quarters and some change.
You almost just HAVE to have a legitimate Playmaking QB now to go all the way.
Not in terms of single season, he has good total numbers but he never cracked the 4,000 yard or 40 TD mark (same with Wuerffel by the way).
To walk things back a bit, my point isn't that great quarterbacks can't win championships or any nonsense like that. Obviously they can. Winston, Newton, and Watson come to mind (and I already mentioned them by name). But the point I'm making is we can't go oh Alabama has an NFL caliber passer, now they'll never lose! It just isn't as simple as that. There's plenty of NFL greats who played on great college teams and don't have any rings.
Heck, Watson almost lost to Hurts, a guy we all know isn't wasn't anywhere near being an NFL passer in that game. Clemson had tons of talent around Watson to, yet despite Watson playing an amazing game, they still almost lost. And, I think Tua is great, but do I think he can put up more yards (420 yards) in a championship game? Probably not. But, by throwing the ball 56 times, it also created an environment where Alabama still had a chance. So a big part of my point is I hope Alabama doesn't try to...
I'd argue that you can't be over-reliant on the running game either, Alabama moved the ball well with Hurts and the running game most the time, it was just a couple games where the lack of downfield passing really did harm. So think of it like this, just because Alabama could run all over teams with Hurts, doesn't mean they should have (and I said that at the time by the way, complaining they ran too much). So, the flip side is just because they can throw all over teams with Tua doesn't mean they should.
In the case of Tua I think the Alabama offense can do everything, but it will take a greater force of will to not just air things out, and to continue to maintain discipline, protect the football and keep up balance in the offense. If they do that, then Alabama might become unstoppable.
See that's a real interesting point you bring up, because while Coker was nowhere near the top 100 passing seasons that year, Henry had one of the top rushing seasons ever. There's no way that was a high octane passing offense that year. Yet, somehow Kiffin and Coker managed to turn on the passing game when they needed it most. It also says something else about the passing game, which is you don't always need it, you just need to be able to do it.
But that's actually to my point. I'm talking about a full season (and the undefeated in college nonsense). It isn't one game, or a few games, it's playing this out over a full season, or seasons and so many variables. Alabama would have lost if all they did was rely on Henry, despite how amazing Henry had been. Fortunately they managed to have a great passing game up their sleeves, but make no mistake had they not, they would have lost. Alabama couldn't run their way to a championship with Hurts or Henry, but I don't think they can just pass their way to one either (or it would be excessively risky, AJ and Blake both threw for 3,000 yards, neither won a championship that season). Alabama needs to both keep down the mistakes (as Winston, and Watson did) and find a way to keep the running game "sharp" so to speak. They didn't do that so well in 2013 and it cost them.
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If you take out the 6 Saban national title teams, the worst statistical QB of any of those teams from 2003 to present is LSU's Matt Flynn. Basically every other QB was a minimum 3000 yard passer other than Tim Tebow '08 who added nearly 700 yards rushing. During The Saban Era of college football, when Saban has not lifted the trophy then the champion team almost always had a top-tier college quarterback who accounted for at least 3500 total yards and 30+ total touchdowns.
But, we are talking about Saban teams.
Explain this one. If a great passer is a sure fire trip to the title game, how is it that 3 out of 4 of the best Saban Alabama quarterback seasons didn't even make the title game?
How is it that Blake Sims, AJ, and GMac as a senior could fall short? They all threw the ball well, they all had great seasons passing, and I mean heck it's Alabama right? How can Alabama+a lot of passing yards not equal a championship? They didn't though. Blake threw for 3,500 yards his senior year, AJ cracked 3,000 yards for the first time his senior year, and GMac was 13 yards short of 3,000 his senior year...
I wasn't trying to make a benchmark when I pointed to top 100 in passing yards, just make a point that a prolific passing offense is not a sure fire way to win a championship or go undefeated.
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