Alabama QB competition article

81usaf92 said:

You say that but we could have some shootouts if our secondary is like the 2014 version. We do play offenses at home that have qbs that can cause some level of concern.

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That's kinda the point. If our defense has an "off" day, Tua is the QB on the roster that is better suited for a 45-44 type game. And we already know, he's a good "come from behind" type of QB.

I don't think Coach Saban has every coached a QB as talented as Tua. He knows it. I don't think there is any way Tua isn't playing if he is healthy. He has to prove it on the field consistently, but you just don't have that type talent come along much. Better use him for the two years you got him. Hurts has performed admirably overall. He just isn't as capable as Tua. Be great if he stayed as a back up.

GrayTide said:

Looking back it appears that what was best for Hurts and what was best for the team were and are not the same. This goes back to KrAzY's comments about Hurts. For his benefit he should have been redshirted his freshman year to learn how to be a more accomplished QB, for the benefit of the team he needed to play since Barnett nor the other backups would have gotten us to the NC game. Now his lack of development will, in all likelihood, negatively affect the team, but still give him a chance to play QB in a backup role, for his benefit. I have no idea how this will play out, but I imagine he will rely on his father's advice to stay or leave.

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I think this is a very fair assesment.

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TideWatcher said:

I don't think Coach Saban has every coached a QB as talented as Tua. He knows it. I don't think there is any way Tua isn't playing if he is healthy. He has to prove it on the field consistently, but you just don't have that type talent come along much. Better use him for the two years you got him. Hurts has performed admirably overall. He just isn't as capable as Tua. Be great if he stayed as a back up.

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I actually think Jamarcus Russell was extraordinarily talented but he did NOT have the competitive drive and discipline to capitalize on his talent.

Had he kept his shape, been disciplined and motivated he'd likely have been a VERY productive NFL qb.

But I agree with the gist of your sentiment. Tua is a special talent and to ignore that would not seem wise.

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TideWatcher said:

I don't think Coach Saban has every coached a QB as talented as Tua. He knows it. I don't think there is any way Tua isn't playing if he is healthy. He has to prove it on the field consistently, but you just don't have that type talent come along much. Better use him for the two years you got him. Hurts has performed admirably overall. He just isn't as capable as Tua. Be great if he stayed as a back up.

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I think if you could get CNS to speak freely he'd probably admit he knows what he's got in Tua. He's smart enough not to pull a Gus and pimp his ride before it's taken him anywhere (NC game aside) but I believe CNS sees the incredible potential in Tua.

It's not a stretch at all to believe we have decent odds of winning 3 in a row and Tua being the #1 draft pick 2 years from right now.

BamaMoon said:

We must have been sitting real near each other because it happened right in front of me in the endzone.

The INT against Georgia was a result of Tua missing a signal. It was supposed to be a QB run and Tua missed the sign. That's the reason the receivers were blocking down field.

One reason I won't stress over that INT is because it was probably just a result of not playing as much. A missed signal is easily correctable, especially when you start getting all the first team reps, like he will.

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I was in section PP, row 11, seat 7 fwiw

selmaborntidefan said:

I was in section PP, row 11, seat 7 fwiw

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I was with a friend sitting in his season tickets. Lower bowl about 25 rows up in the corner of the endzone. I would have been just to your right down below. Pass was almost coming right at us.

I'm reading through this and sometimes I'm thinking folks are talking past each other simply because it's the internet and we can argue, ha ha.

If I'm reading krazy correctly (and I won't PROMISE that I am).....he's saying that:

a) Tua should be the starting QB (I agree)
b) Tua starting gives us the best chance to win but does not guarantee the unbeaten season folks want (I also agree)
c) at its core CFB is STILL the same game it was: run, stop the run, win the turnover battle but a competent passer gives you
an extra weapon for when the running game is having trouble (I also agree)

I decided - just for the hell of it - to look at the NCAA FBS passing leaders going back to 2011 (I could go further but who cares?).

2011
Case Keenum (Houston)
Brandon Weeden (Okie St)
Landry Jones (OU)
Geno Smith (WVA)
Nick Foles (Arizona)

2012
Nick Florence (Baylor)
L Jones (OU)
G Smith (WVA)
Seth Doege (TX Tech)
Rakeem Cato (Marshall)

2013
Derek Carr (Fresno)
Sean Mannion (Oregon St)
Connor Holiday (WSU)
Bryce Petty (Baylor)
David Fales (San Jose)

2014
Brandon Doughty (W KY)
Shane Carden (ECU)
Marcus Mariota (Oregon)
Garrett Grayson (CSU)
Jared Goff (Cal)

Sixth btw was Jameis Winston

2015
Doughty
Matt Quin Johnson (Bowling Green)
Goff
Patrick Mahomes (TX Tech)
Luke Falk (WSU)

2016
Mahomes
Ryan Higgins (LT)
DeShaun Watson
Falk
Mike White (WKU)

2017
Mason Rudolph (OK St)
Baker Mayfied
Riley Ferguson (Memphis)
White
Tyler Rogers (NMSU)

So now....how many of these guys were even national title contenders?

Weeden in 2011 (one play in the ISU game and they play LSU)
Mariota (ok and Winston) in 2014
Watson in 2016
Mayfield in 2017


The thing I've always cautioned is how statistics can be drastically skewed by the cupcake games - or even how one anomaly can
really make things look out of kilter. Watson had nearly 600 of his 4593 yards in ONE game.....oh, the game they LOST to Pitt btw.
He had another 420 against us. On the flip side - even though Clemson routed SC State (59-0), he only threw for 152 yards, well
below his 306 ypg average.

Furthermore, it seems clear to me that with the exception of Weeden, all these other guys were ALSO capable of making you pay
for coverage by taking off and running with the ball. Watson ran for 629 yards in 2016 (over 1100 in 2015) and Mariota rushed for
over 700. Mayfield ran over 300 and Winston over 200 (by contrast, AJ had -50 career rushing yards for us), J P Wilson had mins 6
in 2008, McElroy had 71 in two full seasons, Coker had 68 his last year. Only Blake Sims was anything resembling a dual threat.



I think the notion you can be a one-dimensional passing team and win the title is not supported by the data - while the idea you CAN be one dimensional running team is at least supported by some teams awhile back (we can argue the validity as applied to today).


Someone brought up 1991 Miami.

Gino Torretta was 5th in the nation with 3095 passing yards, but Miami had at least a competent running game and - as Gene Stallings pointed out but nobody wanted to listen - Miami's REAL strength in that time was their defense.

The two best defenses in 1991?
Miami 9.1
Washington 9.2

Oh.....they both won the national title that year

(#3 - as amazing as it seems - was Alabama at 10.7, which included a 35-0 waxing by Florida; take away that one game and our D allowed 8.3 points per game).

Btw - here's some interesting data on defensive PPG allowed (aka scoring defense)

1990 - Colorado, 18.3 (Central Michigan 8.9, Clemson 9.9)
1991 - Miami 9.1 (Washington 9.2)
1992 - Arizona 8.9 (#2 was Alabama at 9.1 and Miami was third at 11.5 after giving up 34 to us)
1993 - FSU 9.4 (won the title)
1994 - Miami 10.8 (#2 was Nebraska 12.1, who won it all)
1995 - Northwestern 12.7 (Nebraska was fourth at 13.6)
1996 - UNC 10.0 (Mack Brown was the coach......Florida won the title with 16.8 ppg surrendered, which was 15th)

Also interesting, imo, that this 2016 defense was on the losing side in a title game, but even a great defense is susceptible to getting worn down when left on the field for 99 plays vs a good offense. With a win in that game, this defense might have become known as the best ever, considering how the game has changed the last few years.

CB Marlon Humphrey - 1st round, 2017 Draft
CB Minkah Fitzpatrick - 1st round, 2018 Draft
SS Ronnie Harrison - 3rd round, 2018 Draft
FS Eddie Jackson - 4th round, 2017 Draft (would have been drafted much higher if not for knee injury)

OLB - Ryan Anderson - 2nd round, 2017 Draft
ILB - Rashan Evans - 1st round, 2018 Draft
ILB - Reuben Foster - 1st round, 2017 Draft
OLB - Tim Williams - 3rd round, 2017 Draft

DE - Jonathan Allen - 1st round, 2017 Draft
DT - DaRon Payne - 1st round, 2018 Draft
DE - Dalvin Tomlinson - 2nd round, 2017 Draft

Crimson White said:

CB Marlon Humphrey - 1st round, 2017 Draft
CB Minkah Fitzpatrick - 1st round, 2018 Draft
SS Ronnie Harrison - 3rd round, 2018 Draft
FS Eddie Jackson - 4th round, 2017 Draft (would have been drafted much higher if not for knee injury)

OLB - Ryan Anderson - 2nd round, 2017 Draft
ILB - Rashan Evans - 1st round, 2018 Draft
ILB - Reuben Foster - 1st round, 2017 Draft
OLB - Tim Williams - 3rd round, 2017 Draft

DE - Jonathan Allen - 1st round, 2017 Draft
DT - DaRon Payne - 1st round, 2018 Draft
DE - Dalvin Tomlinson - 2nd round, 2017 Draft

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What really stands out to me is that the LOWEST draft pick in that group was Eddie Jackson in the 4th round. He was easily a 2nd rounder if he hadn't gotten hurt.

BamaMoon said:

I think if you could get CNS to speak freely he'd probably admit he knows what he's got in Tua. He's smart enough not to pull a Gus and pimp his ride before it's taken him anywhere (NC game aside) but I believe CNS sees the incredible potential in Tua.

It's not a stretch at all to believe we have decent odds of winning 3 in a row and Tua being the #1 draft pick 2 years from right now.

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I am so hoping you turn out to be the our resident prophet with this one!

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drwho said:

I am so hoping you turn out to be the our resident prophet with this one!

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Me too, but two years from now I won't remember I said this whether it's true or not. :wink:

drwho said:

What really stands out to me is that the LOWEST draft pick in that group was Eddie Jackson in the 4th round. He was easily a 2nd rounder if he hadn't gotten hurt.

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Agreed. Bears coach John Fox compared Eddie to a HOFer but can't recall the name. If Eddie stays healthy he will be a regular Pro Bowl selection.

Edit: Just found it. Rod Woodson and it was before Eddie played his 1st NFL game. Eddie's rookie year made him look like a prophet.

https://sportsmockery.com/2017/08/john-fox-name-drops-hall-of-famer-when-describing-eddie-jackson/

TiderJ said:

Agreed. Bears coach John Fox compared Eddie to a HOFer but can't recall the name. If Eddie stays healthy he will be a regular Pro Bowl selection.

Edit: Just found it. Rod Woodson and it was before Eddie played his 1st NFL game. Eddie's rookie year made him look like a prophet.

https://sportsmockery.com/2017/08/john-fox-name-drops-hall-of-famer-when-describing-eddie-jackson/

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Man, Rod Woodson is the prototypical NFL safety that comes to mind so that is high praise!!!

BamaMoon said:

I think if you could get CNS to speak freely he'd probably admit he knows what he's got in Tua. He's smart enough not to pull a Gus and pimp his ride before it's taken him anywhere (NC game aside) but I believe CNS sees the incredible potential in Tua.

It's not a stretch at all to believe we have decent odds of winning 3 in a row and Tua being the #1 draft pick 2 years from right now.

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Fascinating. That might even perk up some of the jaded Bama fans who are taking these NCs for granted now. There’s very little of the wide-eyed incredulity you regularly saw on here ten years ago; in fact, it’s pretty obvious that a lot of folks don't start getting interested until Bama makes the playoffs.

Anyway, hats off to this core group that supports and posts here through the dog days. Three in a row? In spite of the many potential obstacles (like the injuries in 17), nobody but Bama could even speculate on that.

BamaMoon said:

Me too, but two years from now I won't remember I said this whether it's true or not. :wink:

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We will be happy to remind you when we do three-peat.

You nailed it. I am thankful for Jalen. He is a great kid but I don't want him to take another snap for us unless in mop up mode. Best for him to transfer. There is no comparison. Tua will be a high NFL pick. Jalen will never take a snap in the NFL as a QB. I don't want to see that one look at the primary and dump it off to a back or its off to the races again. Good luck to him at FAU or wherever he winds up.

BamaInBham said:

Stats are useful but they can also cloud almost any issue. Surely, every sane fan agrees that it is best to be productive in every facet of the game, including the passing game. What Saban wants to do on offense is to be able to pass and run the ball effectively. Bama can do that with Tua, it cannot do that with Jalen. I don't see how having him as QB can reduce Bama's chances for going 12-0.

Most agree that Tua is superior to Jalen in every facet of the passing game. I would add that though Jalen is a good runner, he is not much better than Tua. In fact, I think Tua has the edge in some aspects of the running or non-passing game: better decision maker in most situations including RPOs, far quicker, much better pocket presence. The only edge for Jalen is top-end speed as well as strength and Tua is strong himself. Tua even has the edge in intangibles because of his well founded confidence. IMO, I think the fear of Tua turning the ball over has been overrated at this point. It may turn out to be true, but it hasn't yet shown to be an issue and has not been nearly as bad as Jalen toward the end of '16, especially the '16 AU game.

As things stand now, I will be very surprised and almost shocked if Bama doesn't go 12-0 - and Tua only enhances that prospect. It's not just because of Tua, but IMO, he does greatly enhance Bama's chances over any other QB on the roster.

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Wolfwallstreet said:

You nailed it. I am thankful for Jalen. He is a great kid but I don't want him to take another snap for us unless in mop up mode. Best for him to transfer. There is no comparison. Tua will be a high NFL pick. Jalen will never take a snap in the NFL as a QB. I don't want to see that one look at the primary and dump it off to a back or its off to the races again. Good luck to him at FAU or wherever he winds up.

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Welcome to Tidefans, Nuke Laloosh...


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BamaMoon said:

Me too, but two years from now I won't remember I said this whether it's true or not. :wink:

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Said what? :conf2: