I am an old fart and have watched football for YEARS, one thing I know for sure , nothing is for sure. I have seen a QB have as great year followed by a bad one. What a guy does this day means nothing tomorrow. NO ONE knows who will be the better QB this yr no one. Tua could light it up or stink it up. Same with Jalen, you just never know how a kid is going to react day to day. I think both will be really good at what they do best, but no way I think one is a lock. We have 2 yrs of Jalen we have a few games on Tua. Still there is no way to say one will be the better QB this yr until they actually play the actual games. Who knows how they both react to this competition.But I cannot wait to see how it all unfolds, hopefully it leads back to the playoffs.
You are 100% correct that we don't know what will happen in the future.
That said, if you are as old as you say you are, you know that past performances are about the only way to predict future events. You say you've seen QBs have a great year followed by a poor one. That's true, but it's really rare for someone to have a serious regression if they've shown consistent elite play. Could someone struggle or have a slump? Yeah, happens all the time.
But here's the thing. Tua has only shown the trajectory of improvement, not decline, even though it's obvious he's got some room for improvement. And even if Tua has a "Soph. slump" (which I seriously doubt will happen), his decline would likely still have him outperforming Jalen, even if he improves some.
For Hurts to even have a shot at this competition he will have to develop skills that to this point he hasn't displayed. His field vision, pocket awareness, quickness of his release and accuracy are all things he severely lacks in the passing game. Yes, Coach Saban is trying to sell this as a legitimate "competition" to the public and media. But I have no doubt in my mind that for Nick Saban to actually pencil in Jalen Hurts as the starter over Tua. Jalen is going to have to elevate his skills to at least that of Tua. The odds of Tua's skills regressing (as some in this thread are hinting at) are slim to none. I guess we all see things a bit different and that's okay. But the gap between Tua and Jalen is light years apart and I'm not sure how some are rationalizing or trying to suggest that the two are on equal footing. Maybe equal footing with opportunity. But there's no way Jalen has all of a sudden drastically improved his skills in less than two months after barely being able to complete a pass against a top notch SEC defense and Tua has all of a sudden regressed in his skills in the same time period. Coach Saban has set the expectation and standard by declaring he wants to run more pro style concepts like we saw in the second half. Which ever quarterback can run that offense the best will start. Right now Tua has proven that his skills flourish in that type offense and Jalen severely lacks in a lot of the key areas of being a highly successful passing quarterback.
I also think Coach Saban is doing his best to keep both on campus. He's doing a little "politicking" and in my opinion is trying to sell the idea that both have just as good a chance to start as the other. I would agree both have the same and equal opportunity. But to suggest that from a skill set and talent standpoint they are on equal footing is being disingenuous at best. They aren't even close at this point.
I believe you've accurately described the situation and status of where Tua and Jalen stand in reguard to playing time/starting.
I also think it cannot be emphasized enough how big a gap there is in their abilities as a drop back passer (and the intangibles that go with it). As you say, it would literally take Tua having a serious regression and Jalen having an unbelievable "awakening" and suddenly becoming something he hasn't previously shown.