I'm a weather nut too, and if I'd been better in math (or had decided to just assert myself more when I was 18) I'd have been a meteorologist. I use longer forecasts to get a *GENERAL* idea of what might be coming, but don't put much faith in them until probably about the 24 hour mark too. Monday night deacon meeting at church, some were worried about an 80% chance of rain for last night when we had an outside event. I kind of smirked because, well, it's Georgia in May, there's an 80% chance of rain any day (which someone else pointed out) and well, that was six days out and could be wildly inaccurate. (Though it's been raining so much here lately, that's not totally an irrational concern). Ended up being a right nice evening, save for the humidity, with just a few very light sprinkles.
For my part, I check the forecasts a few times a day. Also I invested in RadarScope Pro on my phone ($20 initially, and $10 yearly afterward) giving me a pretty broad view of what's going on out there (including hail which I called hitting our neighborhood one night last year about five minutes before it happened).