A political science professor of mine once said that the us electorate is more incoherent on actual political beliefs but roughly 80% of them will vote by party affiliation. I’m kinda feeling that is pretty accurate.
That's about right. That squares with the old idea that each candidate starts with 40% and builds from there. Only in a colossal rout (1936, 1964, 1984) does that change. There's a small group of 3-5% that just vote for who they hear is winning because they want to be with the winner. (This is part of why it's easy to dismiss the old "but she won the popular vote" argument. She did but how many votes did she get on the basis of folks hearing for six months that she was going to win it in a rout?)
We DO have lazy voters - that much is true.
On the flip side, we also have a media that through their lackadaisical coverage can convince people:
-Nixon said he had a secret plan to end the Vietnam War (untrue)
-Sarah Palin said she could see Alaska from her house (untrue)
-Dukakis lost because of a racist Willie Horton commercial (very few Americans ever saw that commercial)
- Clinton made a spectacular comeback in New Hampshire in 1992 (he was leading, imploded, and lost by nine points)
- Bush 41 made a spectacular comeback in New Hampshire in 1988 (uh, he was leading the whole time)
- Mondale won a great victory in March 1984...on the day he LOST 7 of 9 primaries, most of them big huge margins
So there's plenty of blame to go around.
We can blame the parties for the system, the voters for being lazy, the media for not getting the facts right (or in some cases at least CLEAR)
But unfortunately we have to live with it.