Paul Ryan will not run in 2018

Bamaro

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My point with that remark wasn't to be glib, as I can certainly see what many opponents to the tax bill see. I just didn't want to get into my whole train of thought.

The thing is, for the last 40 years, opponents on either side of the aisle have been decrying various bills and measures implemented by their rivals as catastrophic or apocalyptic. Every time, balance comes along and sort of straightens everything out.

To listen to Republicans during the Obama era you'd think we'd all be living in cardboard boxes by now. And sure, there are things he did that didn't help the economy, but we weren't all plunged into darkness.

Same with Bush. He did his damage but we are all still here.

I'm not saying we aren't negatively impacted by these decisions.

These things come in waves - and nothing is ever as bad as the prognosticators - uh - prognosticate. If left on it's current path, there is a high likelihood that this tax arrangement will be a huge bummer. But I just think the odds of us getting to the point of disaster are slim. Could the bill do some form of damage? Sure. Will it be the crippling catastrophe that Dems are saying? More than likely not.

I just think that the wheel will come back to center before we hit the barrier, as it usually does. Which means in the short term, I'm thrilled with the extra money. I'm legitimately thankful for it.
It started in the early 80's, nearly corrected itself around Y2K, and has been racing to destruction ever since. Being glad for these relatively small crumbs provided (compared by huge benefits provided the 10%ers and corporations) is extremely short sighted at best.
How do you feel "the wheel will come back to center before we hit the barrier"?

WASHINGTON — The federal government’s annual budget deficit is set to widen significantly in the next few years, and is expected to top $1 trillion in 2020 despite healthy economic growth, according to new projections from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office released Monday.

The national debt, which has exceeded $21 trillion, will soar to more than $33 trillion in 2028, according to the budget office. By then, debt held by the public will almost match the size of the nation’s economy, reaching 96 percent of gross domestic product, a higher level than any point since just after World War II and well past the level that economists say could court a crisis.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/09/us/politics/federal-deficit-tax-cuts-spending-trump.html
All this while having a staunch fiscal conservative as Speaker. Thanks Paul Ryan for nothing.
 
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Intl.Aperture

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It started in the early 80's, nearly corrected itself around Y2K, and has been racing to destruction ever since. Being glad for these relatively small crumbs provided (compared by huge benefits provided the 10%ers and corporations) is extremely short sighted at best.
How do you feel "the wheel will come back to center before we hit the barrier"?

The likelihood of Trump being re-elected shrinks everyday, as does the likelihood that Repubs hold congress. Once the tables turn, things get reverted.

The HONEST truth would be that, if we are talking about specific policy, I have no clue. I've never been able to predict it in the past. But on the whole the way control wobbles back and forth with both parties modifying what their opponents put into place keeps us on the highway.

If that holds true, then it will be a net positive.

I'm willing to wait and see what the cuts for business do over the next 3-4 years. If it proves to have had no effect in the macro then I think it's worth moving on from. But I'm also not going to poop on money that is helping me and others because other people are getting more at the moment. It's something worth looking into but I'm just thankful I've got extra help and I didn't do anything for it. It just shows up in my paycheck.
 

CharminTide

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IMO, Ryan was one of the few decent Conservatives who was left in power who could legitimately oppose or confront Trump and help move him in the right direction. With him gone, is it now more likely that a "yes man" just gets placed there?
What evidence do you have that Ryan was anything but a "yes man?"

Setting aside my profound disagreement with your characterization of Paul Ryan, I am struggling to recall any significant pushback he has given Trump since taking office.
 

92tide

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This is why I'm not so sure that people on the Left should be celebrating.

I legitimately think that Paul Ryan was doing the best that he could. I think he's got a moral center and is a standup guy. His demure Wisconian disposition isn't an affectation, I genuinely think he's more comfortable working on policy and trying to get it right.

None of this means that he was successful. But I really don't think he was just bending over and taking it from Trump, I think he tried to resist and hedge him in as best as possible and still keep the ship upright. It didn't succeed. With him gone, who knows who gets put in this position?

IMO, Ryan was one of the few decent Conservatives who was left in power who could legitimately oppose or confront Trump and help move him in the right direction. With him gone, is it now more likely that a "yes man" just gets placed there?
we have drastically different views of ryan then ;)
 

Intl.Aperture

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What evidence do you have that Ryan was anything but a "yes man?"

Setting aside my profound disagreement with your characterization of Paul Ryan, I am struggling to recall any significant pushback he has given Trump since taking office.
There are numerous examples of him pushing back against Trump. Most recently with the steel tariff.

We will never be able to agree on the actual personality of a politician. As an olive branch I thought Obama was a standup guy who tried his best to do what was right. I thought his biggest personal hurdle was that he was very arrogant. Just after years of listening to him over time I just got this impression of someone who didn't think there was any way he could be wrong. That arrogance has been completely dwarfed by our current President, but I thought Obama was doing what he thought best and handling it the best he could. I still think the same of Ryan. Ryan can be knocked for his policy and for likely not hitting back hard enough, but he doesn't come across as vengeful or spiteful or arrogant or condescending or smug. I'd still trust him to do his best for the country, even if what he did didn't work or what have you.

I think it's very easy to conflate policy with personality and if you felt his policy to be cruel or dangerous then that must reflect the man. But I don't view it that way. And that goes both ways.
 

Bamaro

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This is why I'm not so sure that people on the Left should be celebrating.

I legitimately think that Paul Ryan was doing the best that he could. I think he's got a moral center and is a standup guy. His demure Wisconian disposition isn't an affectation, I genuinely think he's more comfortable working on policy and trying to get it right.

None of this means that he was successful. But I really don't think he was just bending over and taking it from Trump, I think he tried to resist and hedge him in as best as possible and still keep the ship upright. It didn't succeed. With him gone, who knows who gets put in this position?

IMO, Ryan was one of the few decent Conservatives who was left in power who could legitimately oppose or confront Trump and help move him in the right direction. With him gone, is it now more likely that a "yes man" just gets placed there?
You're right, he could have but unfortunately he bent over to Trump so now we're better off without him. FWIW, looks like the next Speaker will be a dem anyway.
 

CharminTide

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Link

80 percent of the economic growth generated by the Republican tax cuts will eventually go abroad and benefit foreigners, according to a new report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

The report found significant differences between projected GDP, which measures the level of production in the U.S., and gross national product, which measures the income earned by all Americans. If the economic impact from GDP is higher than GNP, the difference between the two is income generated in the United States but going to foreigners. According to the CBO, on average 34 percent of income from the economic activity driven by the tax cuts is flowing out of the country, and in 2028, when the full effects of the tax cuts are in place, that number will increase to 80 percent.
 

CharminTide

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There are numerous examples of him pushing back against Trump. Most recently with the steel tariff.
Jeff Flake introduced legislation that would reverse Trump's steel tariffs. That's pushing back. Paul Ryan stepped before a microphone and said he thought there may be unintended consequences, but that he certainly won't do anything about it. That's Paul Ryan reciting empty words.
 

92tide

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Jeff Flake introduced legislation that would reverse Trump's steel tariffs. That's pushing back. Paul Ryan stepped before a microphone and said he thought there may be unintended consequences, but that he certainly won't do anything about it. That's Paul Ryan reciting empty words.
re-watching the vp debates from 2012 give's one a good idea of ryan's intellectual chops and depth of thinking. he's a "pretty boy" reciting talking points. sort of like a grown up version of c.j. pierson (sp) and the other teen "conservatives" who went viral, but he didn't grow up.
 

GrayTide

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Paul Ryan and most other influential Republicans picked party agenda over what is best and what is right for America and its citizens. IMO, nothing else matters and that applies to other members of the GOP controlled Congress. If they cannot see what is wrong in the WH then there is no hope until Trump is gone. I do not give Ryan a pass simply because he is a decent man.
 
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Crimson1967

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I saw an article that said some are pushing Ryan to step down now to get a new leader in place for the upcoming midterm elections.

Does anyone know if they could force a vote or is he locked in as Speaker for the whole term?


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TIDE-HSV

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I saw an article that said some are pushing Ryan to step down now to get a new leader in place for the upcoming midterm elections.

Does anyone know if they could force a vote or is he locked in as Speaker for the whole term?


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I'd be very surprised if they could pull it off by force. Maybe, if as the fall approaches, it looks like a bloodbath. However, since he's dead man walking anyway, I'd expect him to go on and resign, if he thought it would help the party...
 

GrayTide

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Mark Meadows, Republican from NC, and Chairman of the House Freedom Caucus will be a frontrunner to replace Ryan. If you think Ryan was bad wait until someone like Meadows gets the gavel. He is big time dangerous.
 

CharminTide

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I'd be very surprised if they could pull it off by force. Maybe, if as the fall approaches, it looks like a bloodbath. However, since he's dead man walking anyway, I'd expect him to go on and resign, if he thought it would help the party...
This is the most intriguing part of the story. The Speaker is absolutely pivotal during election season, fundraising, coordinating party strategy, etc. Literally the worst possible time for a Speaker to make this announcement is right before election season. This announcement forfeits the House to the Dems and signals to every donor that this chamber of Congress is already lost. I also doubt they'll be able to force a new Speaker before November; if they do, I don't expect it to be a smooth process.

Big picture: the moment the GOP National Deputy Finance Chair had his office raided by the FBI, Ryan announces that he's quitting politics. At literally the worst possible time for his party. I don't think these things are unrelated.
 

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