Off Season Question: Will Bama Pull the Rare 3-Peat???

I believe that the only things that could keep Alabama from winning every game on your schedule and the championship for the next 2 years are injuries or complacency. It really is that simple - you have more talent and better coaching, and you have your next AJ (and Tua may be better than AJ).

B1GTide said:

I believe that the only things that could keep Alabama from winning every game on your schedule and the championship for the next 2 years are injuries or complacency. It really is that simple - you have more talent and better coaching, and you have your next AJ (and Tua may be better than AJ).

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Especially the complacency. They have to create their own identity as Coach Saban says.

B1GTide said:

I believe that the only things that could keep Alabama from winning every game on your schedule and the championship for the next 2 years are injuries or complacency. It really is that simple - you have more talent and better coaching, and you have your next AJ (and Tua may be better than AJ).

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Meh. It’s really too early to tell on how good Locksley will be. Nuss was highly thought of and for two years we danced around losing games due to offensive conservative predictablility and succeed in 2013 in losing a game we couldn’t recover from . In 12 and 13 we had offenses that should’ve been world beaters.

As for Tua, yes he had a great championship but so did Cardell Jones. More film equals more preparation and more ideas at how to stop him. So it’s very likely we will see a team find a system that catches Tua off guard. And depending on the offense of that team we could be in serious trouble. Not saying Tua won’t rise to the occasion, but there will be THAT GAME that really gets him.

crimsonaudio said:

I think we need to wait until we win two in a row before we begin contemplating a third consecutive NC.

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So very many variables. AJ was playing really, really good football as Alabama attempted to win a third straight. It wasn't enough, and not only that but Alabama barely got the repeat (losing in the regular season), despite what was the best season any QB had at Alabama under Saban.

Heck, we haven't even seen Tua start yet. I think Tua is the real deal, I never really doubted his talent. But, there's so much more that goes into winning championships. Luck being one of the biggest factors, I think there's one Saban quote out there about how many championships he could have won. All you can really do in college football is give yourself a shot at a championship, and there's no way in heck I'd actually bet on Alabama winning the next two. I want them to, I hope they can, but that's still a bad bet.

I think in the talk about Tua we often overlook the other reasons why fans, myself included, are so excited about these next 2 years. It's not JUST Tua. It's the fact that we have 3 WRs who are all very talented and allegedly are thought of as future high round picks by the staff. Or the fact that we have Najee who is probably the most fluid athlete of all the big backs we have had under Saban. Oh and we have an OL that has some really promising depth and young talent plus we are working on one of the best OL recruiting classes we have ever had.

Basically, it looks/feels like we have the most talent on offense that we have had under Saban and our defense is also one of the best. It's just hard to look at how stacked we are and pick against us. Obviously, there are still question marks but the question marks feel more along the lines of "these players are clearly going to be good, but HOW good can they be?"


Edit: The reason I focused on the younger guys is because of the 3 peat idea. Obviously, for this year we also have plenty of older guys like Jonah and Damien on offense and then Davis, Lewis, Thompson, etc. on defense.

81usaf92 said:

Meh. It’s really too early to tell on how good Locksley will be. Nuss was highly thought of and for two years we danced around losing games due to offensive conservative predictablility and succeed in 2013 in losing a game we couldn’t recover from . In 12 and 13 we had offenses that should’ve been world beaters.

As for Tua, yes he had a great championship but so did Cardell Jones. More film equals more preparation and more ideas at how to stop him. So it’s very likely we will see a team find a system that catches Tua off guard. And depending on the offense of that team we could be in serious trouble. Not saying Tua won’t rise to the occasion, but there will be THAT GAME that really gets him.

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This. I HOPE Locksley is "the bomb" and I'll be pulling for him - but as you noted, Nuss ALSO had all the indications of being great. Same deal for Lupoi - the Dude LOOKS like a lock, and I'm sure HOPING he is, but there's no guarantees until the season gets going.

The talent is there, but as we all know, 2010 was a SUPER TALENTED TEAM, and had most of the same coaches in place from 2008 and 09. There was really no reason they shouldn't have repeated.... except for human nature!

To me, this isn't even a conversation to have until Alabama wins back-to-back in January 2019. Until then, it isn't worth discussing. I know that won't stop y'all from discussing it, but it isn't worth a conversation over at this point.

crimsonaudio said:

I think we need to wait until we win two in a row before we begin contemplating a third consecutive NC.

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This is the correct answer.

I don't know if we will, but the collection of offensive talent has finally caught up with the defensive side. So, I'd say this is our best shot, at least.

BamaMoon said:

I understand the undeniable truth we have to win 2 in a row before 3, but since we are at a point in the CNS reign that championships are not just a hope but an realistic expectation, it really isn't that exciting/dramatic to talk about expecting to win the next one. There's not a fan among us that shouldn't be expecting us to be in the post season race.
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09-12 =3 championships
13-17= 2 championships

I don't get the realistic expectation aspect of it. Yeah the SEC is more down, but we have an added game, and more worthy challengers in the SEC and in the other Power 5 conferences than we did in the first 3 championships. I really think it was a miracle that we got in last year with the amount of injuries we suffered. Granted it was a miracle we got in 11 and 12, but you never questioned those teams if they were given a chance. These last two championships were the hardest NCGs I can remember Alabama having since 79.

BamaMoon said:

I'll get this off my chest and say there are a couple of things I really wish we, as regular posters, wouldn't do:

1. Make posts in threads to say "I don't think we should be talking about this." If we feel this way about certain posts just don't participate and certainly don't discourage others who might be interested in discussion that matter from doing so. For instance, I don't think I've read more than 5 minutes of the "hat thread" and I don't think I ever posted about it, but if others want to why not just let them without me discouraging that?

2. Act as if our posts (opinions) represent the team. We are fans dreaming about the real possiblity of 3 in a row, but if I heard of players talking like that I'd say they need to concentrate on the next one first.

Of course, JMO.

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What did you expect? Alabama has 3 types of fans. They have the sunshine pumpers, the cautious optimistic, and eeyores. You know what you are getting from the Sunshiners and the eeyores. And I'm guessing you probably know cautious optimistic folks are not really committed to this type of conversation. So about 2/3rds of this board are probably not willing to talk about a 3peat after just 1 championship. JIMO

Can people be snarky about it? Yes, but the vast majority of the people saying it are just saying "Lets enjoy this last one, and stop getting ahead of ourselves because winning these things aren't a given."

And if you are expecting people to stay out of this conversation just because they don't believe its a good idea, then you are missing the conversations that emerge from the discussion. off season thread drifts are some of the best conversations on this board.

81usaf92 said:

What did you expect? Alabama has 3 types of fans. They have the sunshine pumpers, the cautious optimistic, and eeyores. You know what you are getting from the Sunshiners and the eeyores. And I'm guessing you probably know cautious optimistic folks are not really committed to this type of conversation. So about 2/3rds of this board are probably not willing to talk about a 3peat after just 1 championship. JIMO

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Conversations like this are a lot of fun. This run cannot last forever. Make hay while the sun shines.

81usaf92 said:

09-12 =3 championships
13-17= 2 championships

I don't get the realistic expectation aspect of it. Yeah the SEC is more down, but we have an added game, and more worthy challengers in the SEC and in the other Power 5 conferences than we did in the first 3 championships. I really think it was a miracle that we got in last year with the amount of injuries we suffered. Granted it was a miracle we got in 11 and 12, but you never questioned those teams if they were given a chance. These last two championships were the hardest NCGs I can remember Alabama having since 79.

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Idk that I understand what you are saying here? Are you saying its unrealistic to expect a championship in a given year? Because, when you win 5 in 9 years I don't see how expecting another one can be unrealistic. Plus the whole made the playoffs every year thing and played in the last 3 NCG (winning 2) despite that added game.

RollTide_HTTR said:

Idk that I understand what you are saying here? Are you saying its unrealistic to expect a championship in a given year? Because, when you win 5 in 9 years I don't see how expecting another one can be unrealistic. Plus the whole made the playoffs every year thing and played in the last 3 NCG (winning 2) despite that added game.

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The point is that he made the argument that we've gone from hoping to realistically expecting. I just don't see it that way mostly due to the nature of college football in that 1 loss can totally derail your season. Auburn can single handily destroy a season if they beat us. Auburn has beaten us twice in 5 years, and both times it was our only loss. In 2013 it killed our season, in 17 it nearly did. Stidham is coming back, and Gus is an above average coach when he has a capable qb. So talking about a three peat is assuming we just beat them or we luck out like we did this past year. Its probably also assuming that we beat them in the most controversially officiated stadium in America next year.

Yeah we got into the playoff the past 4 years, but if this last year showed you anything luck usually plays a part of it as well as talent and skill. One thing people overlook is what would happen had we beaten Auburn. We would've played UGA with a totally beat up team. I have my doubts that we would've beaten UGA in the SECG with the amount of injuries. I think we probably don't get in with a loss to UGA.

My overall point is that we really don't know where we are with injuries and how the team gels until maybe mid season. So calling for championships right now is a little unrealistic, and calling for two is very unrealistic. Sure we have the talent, but so did 2010's team. I think is easier to say we will realistically compete and be in the mix of the championship, but calling for it is just ignoring known and unknown variables. Seriously, who knew on September 17th, 2015 Deshaun Watson was going to put up over 900 yards of offense on us in two years and beat one of the best defenses ever built at bama?

81usaf92 said:

The point is that he made the argument that we've gone from hoping to realistically expecting. I just don't see it that way mostly due to the nature of college football in that 1 loss can totally derail your season. Auburn can single handily destroy a season if they beat us. Auburn has beaten us twice in 5 years, and both times it was our only loss. In 2013 it killed our season, in 17 it nearly did. Stidham is coming back, and Gus is an above average coach when he has a capable qb. So talking about a three peat is assuming we just beat them or we luck out like we did this past year. Its probably also assuming that we beat them in the most controversially officiated stadium in America next year.

Yeah we got into the playoff the past 4 years, but if this last year showed you anything luck usually plays a part of it as well as talent and skill. One thing people overlook is what would happen had we beaten Auburn. We would've played UGA with a totally beat up team. I have my doubts that we would've beaten UGA in the SECG with the amount of injuries. I think we probably don't get in with a loss to UGA.

My overall point is that we really don't know where we are with injuries and how the team gels until maybe mid season. So calling for championships right now is a little unrealistic, and calling for two is very unrealistic. Sure we have the talent, but so did 2010's team. I think is easier to say we will realistically compete and be in the mix of the championship, but calling for it is just ignoring known and unknown variables. Seriously, who knew on September 17th, 2015 Deshaun Watson was going to put up over 900 yards of offense on us in two years and beat one of the best defenses ever built at bama?

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Calling for 2 is unrealistic. Hoping for 2 isn't.

I still don't see how us barely making the playoffs is an argument for it being unrealistic to expect a championship. If anything the fact that so many things went wrong last season (passing game, defensive injuries, losing to Auburn) and we STILL won a championship seems to be an argument FOR expecting a championship. It also feels like its cherry picking. If luck is such an important factor than Nick Saban sure has a lot of it.

I get what you're saying I just think I disagree. I also think we get in even if we beat Auburn then lost to UGA (depending on the score). I guess I should also clarify that when I say I expect a championship it doesn't mean I am 100% certain we will win I just think its more likely than not. Idk that I am fully ready to say that about this year yet but I'm getting pretty close tbh.

BamaMoon said:

I also don't think you are giving the offensive upgrade of coaches and players the credit for what might be possible. As with this thread, it's speculative, but seeing we made it to the NC game 2 years in a row with a less than ideal offensive scheme that literally struggled to make 3rd downs and score points against good defenses, it seems the current team is poised to really do something special. It's not just a QB thing, but it has to do with receiver, running back and OL talent too. Assuming the defense gels, as they normally do, these next couple of years could truly be special.

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2010 is one of the most loaded Alabama has ever seen, and yet we lost 3 games. 2013 is another one, and yet we lost THE GAME. In 2013 we lost to Auburn mostly due to a highly regarded offensive coordinator. I don't know how Locksley will do, and neither does anyone else. We will know where we are mid season. And who is to say Tua has a slump? Then what? Everyone wants to act like he is the Heisman and this and that, but we have no idea whats going to happen when coaches realistically gameplan against him.

BamaMoon said:

Part two: I have no problem with people disagreeing about the subject matter of the post. If you disagree, state your point. But at a time of year when the board is typically real quiet/slow, it seems your perspective is to discourage discussion of the matter. I suppose you've discussed the matter in part and I respect your opinion, but you've also essentially stated you don't think it's a worthy discussion. Again, that's fine if it's your opinion, but my opinion is you ought to just not click and comment and go to another thread of interest instead of discouraging some for wanting to talk about what they find a fascinating possibility.

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I would argue that you are discouraging conversation by A) asking about a 3 peat instead of a Repeat and B) complaining about the most likely point of view of the board would take to the question and C) asking people to stop posting who have the pov of lets talk about 2 before 3. I was merely explaining the obvious to you.I personally don't mind these kind of threads, but I think its a bit silly to expect about 2/3 rds of this board not to voice that they don't feel its proper to talk about 3 before 2

RollTide_HTTR said:

Calling for 2 is unrealistic. Hoping for 2 isn't.

I still don't see how us barely making the playoffs is an argument for it being unrealistic to expect a championship. If anything the fact that so many things went wrong last season (passing game, defensive injuries, losing to Auburn) and we STILL won a championship seems to be an argument FOR expecting a championship. It also feels like its cherry picking. If luck is such an important factor than Nick Saban sure has a lot of it.

I get what you're saying I just think I disagree. I also think we get in even if we beat Auburn then lost to UGA (depending on the score). I guess I should also clarify that when I say I expect a championship it doesn't mean I am 100% certain we will win I just think its more likely than not. Idk that I am fully ready to say that about this year yet but I'm getting pretty close tbh.

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Okay, maybe wording is where we disagree. Hoping and expecting to compete and be in the mix is where I'm at, I just think people expecting a national championship every year is just too unrealistic for me. I take it as "calling" or "expecting" one is very unrealistic during the pre season.

My point on our fortunate bounce on selection sunday is that we could've easily been where we were on December 8th, 2013 on December 3rd, 2017 because of the iron bowl. If you really want me to pull a Selma and remind you of all the threads our more realistic Alabama fans started and posted in on championship week then youll find an overwhelming majority that thought we were heading to Atlanta to play UCF. There are so many seemingly meaningless games that have to have certain results for a non champ to get in.

THe point is that calling for one and expecting one before mid season is for the sunshine pumping homers and the mortgage betters. I think you have a more realistic assessment mid season because you can gauge injuries and productivity. Now giving predictions for fun is fine, but this thread is giving us two years to predict. I really think , " do you think Bama will repeat "is a better question personally.

I believe that it is possible to have a realistic expectation without it becoming an unhealthy expectation. What you have to guard yourself against is the kind of disappointment that leads to caustic thoughts or actions when those expectations fail to materialize.

So, set high goals, but understand that you are not the ones working to achieve them. Celebrate those who are working to achieve them, whether they actually achieve them or not. Because the work is where the process lives and breathes. The championships are simply a byproduct.

Just for the sake of clarity I'll summarize my current thoughts about these next 2 years. I would be surprised if we didn't win at least one championship over the next 2 seasons and I think it is more likely we win this upcoming season than the next. My only hold up for this years team is the CBs and Tua's hand