Playoff with 5 Undefeated Power Five Teams

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uafan4life

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If we are comparing Oklahoma and USC, I’d give USC’s win over Texas more weight since it would be in Austin compared to Oklahoma winning in a 50/50 split in Dallas. All else being equal, of course.


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Therein lies the problem, with your post and the OP's post - there is no ceteris paribus in college football.

Nothing exists in a vacuum. If you aren't talking about a specific season, you aren't talking about reality.

There's really only one Big 12 team with a legitimate shot of unseating another undefeated Power 5 champion this season and that's TCU. That would, of course, necessitate the undefeated Big 10 champion being most likely Penn State or Michigan or else an Iowa or Wisconsin who beats OSU in the championship game.

The Big 12's out-of-conference schedule this season is, overall, laughable at best. And since the only real chance for a marquee win for the conference is TCU over Ohio State, it's really a must-win for the Big 12 if the other four Power 5 champions are undefeated.

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B1GMark

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I would think USC would be out. Lack of exposure for the west coast and at this point the jury is out on how big a Texas/ND win would be.
 

81usaf92

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Therein lies the problem, with your post and the OP's post - there is no ceteris paribus in college football.

Nothing exists in a vacuum. If you aren't talking about a specific season, you aren't talking about reality.

There's really only one Big 12 team with a legitimate shot of unseating another undefeated Power 5 champion this season and that's TCU. That would, of course, necessitate the undefeated Big 10 champion being most likely Penn State or Michigan or else an Iowa or Wisconsin who beats OSU in the championship game.

The Big 12's out-of-conference schedule this season is, overall, laughable at best. And since the only real chance for a marquee win for the conference is TCU over Ohio State, it's really a must-win for the Big 12 if the other four Power 5 champions are undefeated.

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If the scenario is USC or OU then it really depends on Washington & UCLA vs TCU and whoever is the next best BIG XII team. I think USC has the edge because they have Texas for an OOC game and a better in conference schedule.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Therein lies the problem, with your post and the OP's post - there is no ceteris paribus in college football.

Nothing exists in a vacuum. If you aren't talking about a specific season, you aren't talking about reality.


There's really only one Big 12 team with a legitimate shot of unseating another undefeated Power 5 champion this season and that's TCU. That would, of course, necessitate the undefeated Big 10 champion being most likely Penn State or Michigan or else an Iowa or Wisconsin who beats OSU in the championship game.

The Big 12's out-of-conference schedule this season is, overall, laughable at best. And since the only real chance for a marquee win for the conference is TCU over Ohio State, it's really a must-win for the Big 12 if the other four Power 5 champions are undefeated.

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This is exactly correct. Indeed, this is why Alabama fans arguing that some "precedent" had been set last year when Ohio State got the nod were absolutely ridiculous since no such concept exists in the playoff vote. That's another relic of the old days. On the flip side, Ohio State fans likewise were arguing a non-precedent and basically saying that somehow winning the conference made up for a 31-point loss to Iowa.

I realize it's easy to bash the Buckeyes are the 31-0 beating Clemson gave them, but go back and look at the Penn State game they lost in 2016 again. Take note of some facts:

- the game was in Happy Valley and Penn St won by 3 (which is generally considered the advantage home gives a team)
- Ohio St led 21-7 entering the fourth quarter (in essence, they had the same one bad quarter we did against ATM in 2012, it's just ours was the first and theirs was the last)
- Ohio St mauled PSU statistically in that game (Penn St was only superior in one category: penalties, they got creamed everywhere else)
- the entire game was determined by Penn St blocking a FG and (key point here) returning it for a TD with 4:27 left

The Buckeyes had two bad possessions in that game, one on defense (PSU went 90 yards for a TD in only five plays) and one on offense (the blocked FG for the TD).

It was a fluke win and everyone who watched the entire season regarded it as such.

Ohio St was - and I said it at the time - deserving of being in the top four. Whether or not they got smoked in the semi-final is irrelevant.


The same is true of Alabama in 2017, but we can't really make that argument because too many things were different. The bizarre thing is that had Wisconsin beaten Ohio St, they would have gotten in even though not a soul in the USA thinks Wisconsin could beat Alabama.
 

crimsonaudio

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Will we ever see a playoff scenario where an undefeated UCF (or similar team) plays against another undefeated team to determine the national champion, given they are the only two undefeated teams left in the country after all other post-season games played?
I hope not, unless this 'UCF-like' team actually plays a real schedule.
 

teamplayer

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I would say in the scenario of Bama, Clemson, tOSU, Oklahoma, and USCW:

Bama, Clemson, and tOSU are in.

USCW and Oklahoma are tough to pick but I think if Washington is good as people think they are going to be then USCW is going in over Oklahoma because they play a harder OOC schedule and a comparable to better in conference schedule.

So my answer is Bama,Clemson, tOSU, and USCW
I agree with this.
 

RedWave

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I think the question is hypothetical, meant to make you compare the conferences, and just have a little fun with it. Whether that is likely to occur wasn't the question that was asked (some of you could take all the fun out of an orgy with a room full of Victoria's Secret models).

I would go with Bama, OSU, Clemson, and USC, given that scenario.
 

TomFromBama

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Of course this is purely hypothetical but its the off-season so I thought I would get others opinion on the top Power 5 teams.

Lets say each of the Power 5 ended the regular season and their championships with an undefeated Champion. Alabama, Clemson, USC, OSU and Oklahoma. Thanks UAFan. Was not really looking at a specific year but we mind as well pick this year. We would also have to assume each team had similar quality out of conference wins.

Who is the most likely team to get left out of the playoff?

Would you say it depends on the OTC games, or do you think one team is obviously left out because of recent history or overall prestige?

I would put my money Oklahoma getting left out. Only because of their weaker conference. Talk about a media circus if this ever happened. Someone would be ticked.
Ok, without reading the whole thread - a couple thoughts here:

FIRST, as Selma correctly notes, this is (virtually) a practical impossibility - but I realize this is mostly a "fun" hypothetical.

SECOND, lets not forget that the P_ayoff scheme is NOT just the P-5 conferences!!! We often forget that there are SIX "chairs at the Table" - not just 5. Notre Dame, all by it's lonesome, is an EQUAL PARTNER in the scheme with every bit as much "say" in the process as the SEC or the B1G -

So just for "Fun" - lets ALSO assume that ND is undefeated. So, using your picks, the Top-6 teams, ALL Undefeated, would be Alabama, Clemson, USC, O$U, OU And Notre Damned.

How would it shake out?

Well, we know the "Double Secret Committee" would (as always) meet in closed sessions, behind closed doors, with no record of interim votes, or how any individual member voted, or of their deliberations, AND Absolutely NO SET CRITERIA that MUST be considered. And (as always) the committee would be "Assisted" in these "Serious" deliberations by their "Media Partner" ESPiN. The Committee would give Very Careful consideration to multiple factors, including "Strength of Schedule", OOC Opponents, Power ratings, Conference rankings, Margin of Victory, Opponent records, Statistical metrics, etc. AND they would take into account (somehow) the effect of "Key Injuries"!

At the conclusion of their careful deliberations, they would release a P_ayoff _racket that PURELY COINCIDENTALLY would match the best projected TV ratings of all the possible combinations, adjusted to compensate (to the extent practical) for members who have not been well represented in past _rackets. IMO, based on that reality, the results would likely be these 4 "IN" would be (in no particular order):
Alabama (13-0), Ohio $tate (13-0), Clempson (13-0) and Notre Damned (12-0).

As between the other two, USCw would have the best chance of sneaking in, and OU would be out in almost any conceivable scenario.

Alabama, O$U and Clem each get in based purely on TV ratings. Notre Dame gets the nod based on 2 factors - TV draw is better than OU and (at worst) comparable to USCw - BUT, they get the nod over both OU and USCw based on the fact that ND is the ONLY P_ayoff partner to (so far) NEVER have gotten "IN".

Again, I am NOT questioning the validity of the secret process!!!!! I am merely noting that in all Four draws to date, no "big market" (and thus "big money") program has been snubbed for a "small market" program with the same record.

Glad I could clear that up for everyone. :biggrin2:
 

Skeeterpop

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I think the question is hypothetical, meant to make you compare the conferences, and just have a little fun with it. Whether that is likely to occur wasn't the question that was asked (some of you could take all the fun out of an orgy with a room full of Victoria's Secret models)..
👆🏼This x 1000

You would think we are a bunch of federal tax accountants sometimes. Smh
 

81usaf92

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Apr 26, 2008
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Ok, without reading the whole thread - a couple thoughts here:

FIRST, as Selma correctly notes, this is (virtually) a practical impossibility - but I realize this is mostly a "fun" hypothetical.

SECOND, lets not forget that the P_ayoff scheme is NOT just the P-5 conferences!!! We often forget that there are SIX "chairs at the Table" - not just 5. Notre Dame, all by it's lonesome, is an EQUAL PARTNER in the scheme with every bit as much "say" in the process as the SEC or the B1G -

So just for "Fun" - lets ALSO assume that ND is undefeated. So, using your picks, the Top-6 teams, ALL Undefeated, would be Alabama, Clemson, USC, O$U, OU And Notre Damned.

How would it shake out?

Well, we know the "Double Secret Committee" would (as always) meet in closed sessions, behind closed doors, with no record of interim votes, or how any individual member voted, or of their deliberations, AND Absolutely NO SET CRITERIA that MUST be considered. And (as always) the committee would be "Assisted" in these "Serious" deliberations by their "Media Partner" ESPiN. The Committee would give Very Careful consideration to multiple factors, including "Strength of Schedule", OOC Opponents, Power ratings, Conference rankings, Margin of Victory, Opponent records, Statistical metrics, etc. AND they would take into account (somehow) the effect of "Key Injuries"!

At the conclusion of their careful deliberations, they would release a P_ayoff _racket that PURELY COINCIDENTALLY would match the best projected TV ratings of all the possible combinations, adjusted to compensate (to the extent practical) for members who have not been well represented in past _rackets. IMO, based on that reality, the results would likely be these 4 "IN" would be (in no particular order):
Alabama (13-0), Ohio $tate (13-0), Clempson (13-0) and Notre Damned (12-0).

As between the other two, USCw would have the best chance of sneaking in, and OU would be out in almost any conceivable scenario.

Alabama, O$U and Clem each get in based purely on TV ratings. Notre Dame gets the nod based on 2 factors - TV draw is better than OU and (at worst) comparable to USCw - BUT, they get the nod over both OU and USCw based on the fact that ND is the ONLY P_ayoff partner to (so far) NEVER have gotten "IN".

Again, I am NOT questioning the validity of the secret process!!!!! I am merely noting that in all Four draws to date, no "big market" (and thus "big money") program has been snubbed for a "small market" program with the same record.

Glad I could clear that up for everyone. :biggrin2:
ND plays USC so your hypothetical is flawed but let’s switch USC with Washington. That would probably destroy any chance OU gets because UW has Auburn. I think ND probably nudges UW in that scenario but I could see it going the other way just as easily.
 

selmaborntidefan

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I think the question is hypothetical, meant to make you compare the conferences, and just have a little fun with it. Whether that is likely to occur wasn't the question that was asked (some of you could take all the fun out of an orgy with a room full of Victoria's Secret models).

I would go with Bama, OSU, Clemson, and USC, given that scenario.

Where do I go for this??????
 

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