Playoff with 5 Undefeated Power Five Teams

Well, since Texas and USC play each other this year, your scenario is impossible.

It would be possible had you gone with Oklahoma or Oklahoma State instead of Texas. However, the end result would still be the same: the Big 12 would be left out primarily because of their out-of-conference schedules as well as their perceived, overall conference weakness. Oklahoma's best OOC win would likely be against a Rosen-less UCLA team or else FAU and Oklahoma State's best OOC win would likely be against Boise State.

Compare that with:
1. Alabama's SEC schedule plus a win against a quality ACC team in Louisville,
2. Clemson's ACC schedule plus a win at home plus one on the road against two decent, at worst, SEC teams,
3. Ohio State's B1G schedule plus wins over a middling Pac 12 team plus a decent-to-good Big 12 team, and
4. USC's Pac 12 schedule plus a win over Notre Dame and a win at Texas...

...and it's easy to see who gets left out - with little real debate.

Pretty much every early poll has the Sooners behind Alabama, Clemson and OSU. But pretty much every poll has the Sooners ahead of USC, and that is likely to be the case when the polls actually come out.

Locks to make the playoffs with an undefeated season are Alabama/Georgia winner, Clemson and Ohio State. In your scenario the Sooners would have the edge at the beginning of the season. Both play similar conference schedules and both play Texas. The Sooners play Army and USC plays Notre Dame.

It would probably come down to two things - how well the two play against Texas (this would be compared endlessly), and how well their other OOC teams perform (with ND and Army the teams on each team's schedule capable of being either pretty solid, or horrid).

My guess - the Sooners would get the nod.

I would say in the scenario of Bama, Clemson, tOSU, Oklahoma, and USCW:

Bama, Clemson, and tOSU are in.

USCW and Oklahoma are tough to pick but I think if Washington is good as people think they are going to be then USCW is going in over Oklahoma because they play a harder OOC schedule and a comparable to better in conference schedule.

So my answer is Bama,Clemson, tOSU, and USCW

Skeeterpop said:

Of course this is purely hypothetical but its the off-season so I thought I would get others opinion on the top Power 5 teams.

Lets say each of the Power 5 ended the regular season and their championships with an undefeated Champion. Alabama, Clemson, USC, OSU and Oklahoma. Thanks UAFan. Was not really looking at a specific year but we mind as well pick this year. We would also have to assume each team had similar quality out of conference wins.

Who is the most likely team to get left out of the playoff?

Would you say it depends on the OTC games, or do you think one team is obviously left out because of recent history or overall prestige?

I would put my money Oklahoma getting left out. Only because of their weaker conference. Talk about a media circus if this ever happened. Someone would be ticked.

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Fortunately, this scenario will never happen. While we never say never, I believe (I’d have to look) that only twice (79 and 09) have we reached the end of the regular season with five unbeaten teams and we had the Little Runts both times. I just don’t see it ever happening - theoretically possible like my “Selma dates Kate Upton” proposal but just.....no. My fear is this more likely scenario: a team like UCF (won’t be them this year but you know what I mean) running the table with maybe one decent win against an overrated Power 5 early and the bee swarm of defenders of how “unjust” it is to keep passing over these nobodies, esp if you have the Ohio St 2-loss scenario from last year.

It is also time to end this obsession with “didn’t win the conference.” Conference championships are a relic of a bygone era when the game was more regionalized and the winner got a certain bowl game. It’s fine to have them but it’s time a Herbstreit (a good analyst with credibility) stood up and made this point with a wide audience, especially as he agreed with the selection of us over his own school. Conferences represented the EXCLUSION of teams in a region and made it easy to make out a schedule with some ease. But this whole win your conference argument can only apply if you play round robin (like the Big 2 and Little 8 that equals 12 do). If you don’t then any conference championship is a farce because LSU can eliminate Alabama (2011) and face the 4th best team in the SECCG (why does nobody complain about that fact?) or 2-loss Auburn can eliminate 1-loss Alabama because one loss was out of conference.

I appreciate Skeeterpop’s hypothetical, I really do, but because teams are taking on more competitive games it’s less likely to happen and never has. But the bigger problem will be the UCF scenario. Nobody argued in favor of Tulane in 1998 or Marshall in 1999. Utah got a few supporters in 2004. But Boise beating OU and then Utah beating us gave rise to the absurd “they can beat them” nonsense and TCU winning the Rose Bowl really made it loud.

If a UCF played consecutive games and BEAT some high quality opponents in the Top 20, they’d have a good argument for inclusion but we all know that if they did then they’d lose later to a lesser foe. Play 2 good teams in a row, none of this 8 months to get ready for your only good opponent in the opener and then getting the other while you have a week off and they play a brutal game that week before.

Clemson is going to lose at least once, maybe twice. Their days of sneaking up on anyone are gone. OU ALWAYS chokes to someone they should beat. And Ohio St has, too, since coming off probation (I say this as an unrepentant believer in Meyer as the number two coach in CFB).

And if we don’t win the SEC with one or no losses - this year - it will take a miracle to get in for us.

Will we ever see a playoff scenario where an undefeated UCF (or similar team) plays against another undefeated team to determine the national champion, given they are the only two undefeated teams left in the country after all other post-season games played?

Bazza said:

Will we ever see a playoff scenario where an undefeated UCF (or similar team) plays against another undefeated team to determine the national champion, given they are the only two undefeated teams left in the country after all other post-season games played?

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Only if it’s the final playoff game.

selmaborntidefan said:

Only if it’s the final playoff game.

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Sure but that could never happen (I know - when you get a date with Ms. Upton, right?) unless the playoffs expand past 4 teams, right?

Bazza said:

Sure but that could never happen (I know - when you get a date with Ms. Upton, right?) unless the playoffs expand past 4 teams, right?

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It depends - have those kinds of seasons enough times in succession, combined with bowl wins over good P5 teams, and you will get your shot. They real problem - programs like that cannot hold onto head coaches long enough to get there. Boise State had Peterson for 8 seasons and produced 2 undefeated teams and 3 teams with only 1 loss. He also won the Fiesta Bowl twice - in his undefeated seasons. He beat very good Sooners and TCU teams in those games.

I believe that Boise State would have been included in the playoff if Peterson had stayed and they had another undefeated season. They had proven themselves to be competitive against top 5 teams. But you can't come from nowhere, have one good season and be expected to get a shot at the title unless your regular season schedule is very competitive.

Bama would get left out because of "Alabama fatigue".

selmaborntidefan said:

Fortunately, this scenario will never happen.

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Why would such a scenario be unfortunate?

selmaborntidefan said:

It is also time to end this obsession with “didn’t win the conference.” Conference championships are a relic of a bygone era when the game was more regionalized and the winner got a certain bowl game.

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I miss those days.

drwho said:

Why would such a scenario be unfortunate?

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Because the conference left out would basically threaten to sue and whine and cry like happened in 2011 and threaten to get Congress involved and something about "equity" and we'd wind up expanding the playoff for the "never gonna happen" scenario.

I guess I'm simplistic but as always, it comes back to just THREE teams most of the time. I would rather have one team that didn't really belong in the four-team playoff than to have injustices like 1966 happen. The four-team guarantees that will NEVER happen like that - a two-time defending champion with an unbeaten season would be a unanimous choice for the playoff. Never again will we have 1990 and 1991 scenarios.

I'm willing to tolerate one "maybe shouldn't be there" that the top seed can blow out. What I don't want is a bunch of 2- and 3-loss teams wandering into the thicket. In my view, Penn State in 16 and Ohio St in 17 were automatically disqualified because they had two losses and you had one-loss teams with a legit claim. I want us to keep AS MUCH OF THE OLD as we can, the things that make the sport so awesome, and modify it only enough to ensure a legit champ. Make no mistake, Alabama would have had zero grounds to complain because we left it in the hands of the voters. By the same token, I think anyone who saw the teams play last year could easily choose Clemson, UGA, and Alabama as three of the four best teams. OU was not quite so impressive but the truth is that they DID beat Ohio State head-to-head and it wound up being a play-in game.

The conference title argument itself holds no weight. While I can admit it would be VERY hard to make the argument the nation's two best teams are in one conference, I don't think it's that hard to see that two of the top four might well be.

selmaborntidefan said:

Because the conference left out would basically threaten to sue and whine and cry like happened in 2011 and threaten to get Congress involved and something about "equity" and we'd wind up expanding the playoff for the "never gonna happen" scenario.

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I see what you mean. That would be as bad as ranking all D-1 QBs.

selmaborntidefan said:

Because the conference left out would basically threaten to sue and whine and cry like happened in 2011 and threaten to get Congress involved and something about "equity" and we'd wind up expanding the playoff for the "never gonna happen" scenario.

I guess I'm simplistic but as always, it comes back to just THREE teams most of the time. I would rather have one team that didn't really belong in the four-team playoff than to have injustices like 1966 happen. The four-team guarantees that will NEVER happen like that - a two-time defending champion with an unbeaten season would be a unanimous choice for the playoff. Never again will we have 1990 and 1991 scenarios.

I'm willing to tolerate one "maybe shouldn't be there" that the top seed can blow out. What I don't want is a bunch of 2- and 3-loss teams wandering into the thicket. In my view, Penn State in 16 and Ohio St in 17 were automatically disqualified because they had two losses and you had one-loss teams with a legit claim. I want us to keep AS MUCH OF THE OLD as we can, the things that make the sport so awesome, and modify it only enough to ensure a legit champ. Make no mistake, Alabama would have had zero grounds to complain because we left it in the hands of the voters. By the same token, I think anyone who saw the teams play last year could easily choose Clemson, UGA, and Alabama as three of the four best teams. OU was not quite so impressive but the truth is that they DID beat Ohio State head-to-head and it wound up being a play-in game.

The conference title argument itself holds no weight. While I can admit it would be VERY hard to make the argument the nation's two best teams are in one conference, I don't think it's that hard to see that two of the top four might well be.

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I’m not a fan of the CCG as much as I was. All it does is reaffirms the fears that people originally had in that it could cost a very great team and reward another undeserving. Think about if Mizzou 2014, UF 2015, and UF 2016 won. Alabama had nothing to gain by playing those games but everything to lose. I think a 9 game conference schedule would be better and let the chips fall where they may. Did Auburn last year really deserve a playin game over UGA and Bama

If we are comparing Oklahoma and USC, I’d give USC’s win over Texas more weight since it would be in Austin compared to Oklahoma winning in a 50/50 split in Dallas. All else being equal, of course.


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