Re: Cracks are forming is the Pac-12 Conference.
I have a feeling that Texas is going to go independent at some point and leave the dwarves of the power 5 out in the dust and Oklahoma desperate to find a new home.Major college football on the west coast is a 40,000 to 50,000-seat sport. For cultural and demographic reasons (justified or not), that is simply what the market will bear. Those with larger stadiums than that will have a lot of empty seats when their teams aren't good or perhaps if the matchups aren't compelling. I don't look down on them because of it, but it is fair game to remind them of it when they try to argue that their product is better than ours.
The gap in cultural preeminence between the Pac 12 footprint and the SEC (and Big 10 to a large extent) makes the Pac 12 Network less lucrative than the other conference networks. It is compounded by the time zone issue. Chasing good first- and second tier TV rights deals that remain in the same ballpark as the rest of the Power 5 means more weeknight games and late starting times for the marquee teams. Because there are very few Pac 12 matchups that measure up ratings-wise to the other conferences, hence the wacky start times.
Getting the Texas and perhaps Oklahoma schools would've solved their problems: dramatic increase in Pac 12 Network interest, better matchup inventory, and crucial Central Time Zone inventory. But with TV revenues flattening out and networks struggling to cope with cord-cutting (not to mention the Longhorn Network elephant in the room), I wonder if such an opportunity will ever present itself in the foreseeable future.
ESPN and Fox Sports essentially financed the last big round of realignment when they held the Big 12 harmless for losing valuable inventory while sweetening the pot for expanded leagues in subsequent renegotiations. I don't think the appetite to do it again is there.
I would not surprised at some point to see the Big 12 and Pac 12 try some scheduling alliance or shared television arrangement (short of an outright merger) to try to collectively squeeze out more media dollars.