Examining Saban’s 9-7 Record Against the Barn

81usaf92 said:

Personally I’ll be willing to have the same result as last year every year on until they get within 2 of tieing the series if we get a NC in all of those years.

But the better team usually wins and there is only 1 true upset since 1956. But I still maintain if Auburn has a championship shot in front of them they usually beat us.

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at JHS, I agree.


2010 was the outlier. OK, and 2004.

JHS
1989 - they HAD to beat us to claim a share of the SEC (which we'd already clinched)
1993 - they HAD to beat us to make their own claim to the national title plus stick it to the country for what they felt
was a wronged situation
1997 - they HAD to beat us to win the West (LSU would have won the division if Scissum doesn't fumble)
2013 - they HAD to beat us to keep all hopes alive
2017 - same as 2013, with a possible playoff berth staring at them

(Again - the truly BIZARRE thing is that if the Ricardo Louis TD never happens that way......we use the Kick Six as motivation to blow out Mizzou and FSU; that was the more important play because without it, the Kick Six doesn't even matter)

81usaf92 said:

Personally I’ll be willing to have the same result as last year every year on until they get within 2 of tieing the series if we get a NC in all of those years.

But the better team usually wins and there is only 1 true upset since 1956. But I still maintain if Auburn has a championship shot in front of them they usually beat us.

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Surprisingly, to the best of my recollection they've only truly played a winner-take-all game 7 times.

71 Bama for SEC, AU very good, Bama better
74 Bama for SEC, AU very good, Bama better
79 Bama for SEC, AU OK, Bama far superior
83 AU for SEC, AU far superior, most don't even know that Bama would have tied for SEC
87 AU for SEC, AU far superior, most don't even know that Bama would have tied for SEC
13 AU, AU was very good but Bama was better and should have won before the K6, played in J-H.
17 AU, AU was very good, really better at the time they played. @J-H. Bama won the NC anyway.

So, Bama is 3-4 in these type games. 2 of AU's wins, 83 & 87, most did not even know about and AU was far superior and 17 Bama won the big prize anyway. OTOH, most do not remember that AU could have tied in 74 and 79. So, there's only been a couple of hyped winner-take-all games: 71 and 13, with 17 somewhat behind. Of course there have been many more big Alabama/AU games. But usually so because Bama was so good, with AU having a chance of knocking off the monster. Bama has had far fewer opportunities to do the same. IMO, the sample size is so small and with the record being close, that it is meaningless.

In 89 Bama had clinched a tie for the SEC, AU who was physically superior despite the records, won in J-H to tie with Bama and UT. Not a true winner-take-all. And Bama got the Sugar Bowl bid anyway, as Pat Dye so "graciously" said, "let them go, it's been so long since they've been" :smile:.

In 94 Bama won at L-F. It would have been winner-take-all but AU was on probation and could not participate in SECC game.

I could have missed one or two or... So to all - if you've got a couple of minutes, check it out :smile:. I'm just talking about "winner goes, loser stays home" games.

deliveryman35 said:

Ok. I’m fine with that if that makes everyone feel better. Let’s examine Saban’s 7-4 record against the barn since he’s been at Alabama. That’s a winning percentage of .636, as opposed to his CAREER win percentage(LSU and UA) against them of .562. Either way, when put up against his overall record there is a lot of disparity.

I pretty much agree with those that have said that Saban will win more times than not but at the same time he’s going to drop one in jhs every 2-4 yrs.

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Because his overall record is inflated by never losing upsets (okay, ULM) to those cupcakes.....which boosts the winning percentage.

deliveryman35 said:

Ok. I’m fine with that if that makes everyone feel better. Let’s examine Saban’s 7-4 record against the barn since he’s been at Alabama. That’s a winning percentage of .636, as opposed to his CAREER win percentage(LSU and UA) against them of .562. Either way, when put up against his overall record there is a lot of disparity.

I pretty much agree with those that have said that Saban will win more times than not but at the same time he’s going to drop one in jhs every 2-4 yrs.

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It's been fairly well dissected and mostly from the Bama record (7-4, 7-3 since he got it started) POV. Not that there is not more to say. But you sound like we're just getting started.

As far as the disparity between CNS's overall record in the past 10 years and his record vs AU - AU is a better program than the average opponent. Also, since the sample size is obviously smaller vs one team, the few odd events that have occurred vs AU are magnified in their effect. I.e., in 2 of the 3 losses, if the funny bounces are removed, Bama is 9-1. But they are part of life and sport so they can't be. But it does distort the record.

Thus far, some have concluded that the record is quite reasonable: AU has a good program on one of the best runs in their history and CNS's Bama is 7-3, since the first year. It could be better but 70% is not bad, including 3-2 in J-H.

It's not voodoo. First Bama's 7-3 record is good, secondly AU has a good program, thirdly since the sample size is a relatively small 10 games, "time and chance" can have a magnified effect, thus distorting the record a bit.

BamaInBham said:

The difference between 9 and 7 is 2.

CNS was 2-3 vs AU at LSU.

CNS has won 7 of the last 10 vs AU at Bama. 2 of those 3 losses were against 2 of the best AU teams of all time with "unusual" circumstances, the other one was with a severely injured D and the last stand on a one-legged offense. I.e., AU has been good and fortunate, Bama has been great and unfortunate. Bama has beaten AU by 10 or more in 6 of those wins, 2 against ranked AU teams, including 3 absolute humiliations and 2 comfortable 2 TD+ wins. One of their wins was with one of the greatest teams in their history with their greatest player ever vs the worst Bama team and the only one that has lost more than 1 reg season game in the last 10 years, the 9-3 2010 team. That was a one point loss with a couple of once in a decade type plays along with a couple of other breaks.

This current Bama run must be incredibly frustrating for AU since they are on one of the greatest runs in their history, but are almost an afterthought because of Bama's massive shadow. They just can't keep up, even with their success, playing twice in the last 8 years for the NC. Their primary relevance is that they give outside hope to many that they can derail the Bama NC run, which they did once in 2013.

CNS is doing fine at Bama vas AU. Could be better, but 70% vs a good program that has played for the NC twice in the last 10 years is a nice job.

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What Delivery is saying is that if one of those games had been lost, CNS is 8-8 versus the barn.

The boogs have taken the stealing of opponent signals to a whole new level. Coach Dye has masterminded their success behind the scenes and it is obvious why he is so valued by Lowder and his cronies...

selmaborntidefan said:

Only at Alabama could we be defending national champions with a realistic shot for three in four and be complaining about the ink stain on the otherwise crisp, championship $100 bill........

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Guilty. I want to win the games we are capable of winning.

Redwood Forrest said:

Guilty. I want to win the games we are capable of winning.

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Agree whole-heartedly, but after the fact, IMO, some perspective, appreciation, even mercy :smile:, is in order.

tusks_n_raider said:

For my part I was only responding to the OP's criteria of looking at CNS's career against AU. In looking at it I don't see where it's so much CNS 'can't beat good AU teams' but rather CNS has trouble beating AU at Jordan-Hare.

In Home games his record against them is 7-1. The only loss is the 2010 game to the eventual National Champion.

In Road games at JH he is 2-6. The lone 2 wins were from the 2009 and 2015 National Champions. The 2009 game we trailed until the final drive and the 2015 game was closer than the final score. It was a 9 point game until Henry's last second TD run.

AU (to their credit) is incredibly difficult to beat at JH. I'm telling you that place is crawling with Voodoo.

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Call it Voodoo if you want, but there are a lot of shenanigans that happen in that stadium and it ain't supernatural...

(wondering if I should note......


Bryant Alabama winning pct .830
Bryant vs Auburn winning pct .760 (WHAT A FAILURE!!!)

Bryant overall winning pct .780 (THE NERVE OF HIM LOSING TOO MUCH TO AUBURN!!!)

selmaborntidefan said:

Only at Alabama could we be defending national champions with a realistic shot for three in four and be complaining about the ink stain on the otherwise crisp, championship $100 bill........

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:smile:

Tom Osborne was 8-1 against OU coaches NOT named Barry Switzer; he was 5-12 against Barry.

He only beat OU once when the Sooners were all that good - and then he turned right around and lost a month later in the Orange Bowl.

He beat them for three years when Oklahoma lost four games each season (1981-82-83).


And then he began beating them like a drum the moment Switzer left (oh, and OU got socked with probation).


You know, kinda like Tommy Tuberville....

deliveryman35 said:

I guess Saban’s total mastery over Tennessee, Arkansas, and LSU to the tune of a 31-3 total record since he arrived here has some of us setting unrealistic expectations out there for him with the barn. We greedily want total domination and a return to winning so many in a row that barn players graduate without ever experiencing a win over us. But I’ve come to the conclusion that this simply isn’t your 1970s Auburn program and that further those days aren’t coming back.

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I agree with your post in general. However, I would not lump LSU in with UT and Ark. Bama is 7-3 vs AU since 08 and 9-2 vs LSU. The truth is that LSU was Bama's most formidable foe thru 2015. They just could not close the deal in 09, 12, 14 and played Bama close in all but the rematch in 11 (the 13 final score was misleading). They were the only regular season opponent able to match up with Bama physically. The coaches and players and many fans regarded them, not AU, as Bama's real rival from 08-15. AU and bad fortune would just jump up every now and then and bite - just twice in those 8 years. LSU was a man every year. Crazy, charismatic, talented, wasteful LSU - I miss them.

Again, agree with your primary point that AU is not the AU of the latter half of the 70s. Many Bama fans want to "get back" at AU for 02-07, but that scenario where Bama was severely crippled is unlikely to occur to either side. In reality, Bama played them much closer than their talent, but the gap was so great because of sanctions, that no matter the tremendous pluck and grit with which Bama played, they could not overcome. Again, AU was very fortunate with timing. I guess it's only fair, having to live in the massive and oppressive shadow of the greatest program in history. It's very bitter for them, though many have come to terms with it and try to enjoy their triumphs - always knowing that more losses are to follow any win :smile:. Bama fans should enjoy their wins too, not just lament the occasional loss. It's so much more fun. Though I do understand the desire for scorched plains.

deliveryman35 said:

The vibe I am getting on here so far from posters that I respect seems to be, as long as we win 2 out of every 3 games with the barn, then we need to be satisfied with that result.

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The vibe I'm getting from you - whom I totally respect - is that our conversation is functioning asymmetrically though not obtusely.

Some of us are really caught. It's not that we're "satisfied" with winning 2 of 3 - it's kind of the not wanting to be seen as a "sore loser" or the worst part of some of the most vocal (and clueless) section of our fan base's main problem.

I know that no Tide fan here starts with the, "Well, the rip on Saban is he can't beat a good Auburn team." Or its gets phrased another way like "we always have trouble with Auburn when it's a winner take all game." But I think any of us who are really fans of the GAME (and not just Alabama) realize that emotion plays a big role in firing that adrenaline and doing stuff to help your team win. And that gets right back to the basic difference between the expectations of fans at Alabama and at Auburn. I mean NOTHING disrespectful to anyone, including our Auburn dub AUDub here, who is a classy poster, but it's an accurate generalization. I'm going to paraphrase two Alabama fans (at least one is a grad), Rodney Orr and Scott Brown.

Auburn will NEVER be Alabama. No matter how many SEC titles they win, how many Heismans, moving the game to JHS, beating Alabama, or winning multiple national championships - they will NEVER be Alabama. The problem is that too many Auburn fans refuse to accept this reality. The bias of the state will ALWAYS point towards Tuscaloosa and NEVER towards Opelika. That's just the truth. This is not because there's anything inherently wrong with Auburn (despite some elements of our fanbase wanting to pretend such). It's simply that because of differences and timing, Auburn could have 50 years like our last 50 years, and they will still never be Alabama - just like Pat Dye, who no doubt gave it all he had - never became the second coming of Coach Bryant. This creates in inherent inferiority complex in the Auburn fan. No matter what he does, his school will always be compared to Alabama, and it will ALWAYS come up short. Auburn is the blue collar guy who busted his tail and did the best he could, working during the day and going to school at night, married the homecoming queen and after thirty plus years got to try his hand at running things. Alabama is Tom Brady, born with a certain level of advantage that they've parlayed into greater winnings than anyone else - oh, and married the hot super model to boot.

Auburn's history on the field is NOT bad at all - unless you compare it to Alabama. They've won eight SEC titles (as many as Florida), two national titles (more than UGA if you want to get technical), had three Heisman winners, trail only Alabama in Western Division titles (Auburn has won the West NINE times. They rank 16th by winning percentage, and I'd raise that to 15 since Boise State's program ranks ahead of Alabama, which is a total sham. Auburn has won 23 bowl games as well, only one fewer than Nebraska. Granted, those stats have gotten inflated in the last 20 years - but only one of those bowl wins (2015) came from a six-win team. They're not a bad program historically, especially when you remember they've done those things in the shadow of the big crimson elephant that casts a shadow over the state.


But as the old saying goes, every time a foot compares itself to a yard, it comes up short.

That gets to the point I've talked around - emotion. BECAUSE of that "second class citizen" status, Auburn will pretty much ALWAYS bring more emotion into the Iron Bowl than Alabama. At Alabama, you beat Auburn because you "have" to in order to do BIGGER things like win the SEC title or national title or at least get a better bowl game. At Auburn, you beat Alabama to get respect - Alabama beating Auburn does NOT give us respect. And THAT difference is why you have the fervor at JHS especially. Auburn takes the field with nothing to lose hoping to beat Alabama. Alabama takes the field with EVERYTHING to lose, hoping to NOT LOSE to Auburn.


And that difference cannot be made up by Coach Saban, either. He can do nothing that is going to give our guys an inferiority complex enough to harness the emotion. The closest I ever saw this was the first half of the 2010 Iron Bowl, where you could just feel the crowd coming through the TV screen. And you could feel it dissipate at halftime. Auburn brings emotion to the game that we can NEVER bring to the game. I'm not trying to be a (Little) Debbie Downer here, I'm just telling ya like it is.

So it's not that we think it's "okay," it's just more of trying to not sound like the Finebaum callers, the ones who used to want to jump into the wrestling ring and attack the heel on "Georgia Championship Wrestling" back in the day. And as I've said one hundred times - Auburn's fan base woke up the morning after beating Oregon and realized that even though they were #1 in the nation they were still #2 in the state. Basically, we had rushed down and stolen their presents when they woke up on Christmas morning.

He has 4 losses to Auburn and 3 losses to LSU while at Alabama. They're two of the better programs in the conference since 2007 and we play them every year. I think the issue with Auburn under Saban is that we've have never beaten even a great Auburn team and really only beaten one pretty good Auburn team (2014). 2009 is the next closest quality win and that was a near-loss sort of affair too. 2015 and 2016 were sloppy wins against Auburn squads that limped to the finish line. Every year they've been remotely nationally relevant they've won while we've stocked up on a bunch of wins where their average fan was not expecting much.

I happen to think that this is the year we take it to a 2 or less loss Auburn team because things kinda line up for them to have no more than two losses despite likely being a deficient team on offense (but with a veteran QB who will make it work for the most part).

To me this thread represents the unhealthy obsession some on both sides have over one game on the schedule. Yes, it's important to win, but it's just an obstacle on the way to a championship. I still see some upset over the Auburn loss last season, why? Because some co-worker poked fun at them? That's the context for what wins and losses matter? I don't care one tiny bit that Alabama lost to Auburn, because Alabama still won a championship. I even went over a scenario before the Auburn/Georgia game, in which Auburn would win both and Alabama could still play for a title. That's what I care about, and I think anyone who is still upset over the Auburn loss might have misplaced priorities.

So, Nick Saban is 7-4 against Auburn. That's not great, but that's not bad against a team of Auburn's stature. Furthermore, it could have easily been 8 or more wins, and one loss really shouldn't count for much since it was his first season. Even with that 7-4 record though, we're talking about 332-209, that's the cumulative scores. Does that look like Saban really has a problem with Auburn? It doesn't to me, as often as it's been a close game, Saban's team has dominated Auburn. But yeah, Alabama lost to Auburn once when it mattered, in 2013. That sucks, but there's no point in staying up nights worrying about it.

The question isn't really why Saban struggles with Auburn, because as the score and record shows, it's lopsided. The question is why he hasn't decimated Auburn, why Auburn didn't go the way of Tennessee, or why the series didn't slowly turn like the LSU one. Remember, at one point Saban was 50/50 against Les Miles, and by the time it was said and done Les got fired pretty much solely because he couldn't beat Saban. So what is the difference?

The difference is Auburn is the best at being second best. They're the best at understanding their place and working within those confines. They managed to make Alabama play them again, and even worse make Alabama fans care about playing Auburn. They managed to make Alabama play them at home. The amount of influence they've had at a clear second best is remarkable, and sadly it's fueled in part by us, because we give them credence, because we care, because we keep talking about them. But the key here is Auburn has never been #1, but they've managed to leverage their position as #2 fairly well.

Just think about the players they've gotten over the years solely because their first choice (Alabama) didn't take them. I still can't come up with one example of the inverse being true. Think about how many Auburn fans are Auburn fans simply because they dislike Alabama, how many times is the inverse true? They've fed off their role as second best in a unique way, they might be angry and upset about it, but it is a motivator. It also brings with it an odd sort of resilience.

Auburn has had their ups and downs, but their tolerance for getting their butts kicked is fairly high. They bounce back as well as anyone though, I mean not long ago some were asking if the Iron Bowl was dead, the game wasn't even full, people were leaving in the third quarter, and then 2013 happened. Auburn takes the humiliation suffered at the hands of Nick Saban as well as any team has, because after all they are always second best anyway. But, (and I posted their erratic offensive stats) they're willing to sell out, to bet the house. They're ok with losing as long as it means they win now and then. Look at 2010, they went all in on Cam, heck what motivated them to go out and buy Cam? They were willing to risk everything to win. So when they hit the next bump in the road they dusted themselves off, got back up, and figured out another way to make themselves annoying.

There is no magic to it, there is no brilliance. Auburn is just tough, they're the little guy that swings wildly and knows most of the time they'll lose. But it's all worth it to them because every now and then they land that big blow, and that's really all they care about.

deliveryman35 said:

The vibe I am getting on here so far from posters that I respect seems to be, as long as we win 2 out of every 3 games with the barn, then we need to be satisfied with that result.

I guess Saban’s total mastery over Tennessee, Arkansas, and LSU to the tune of a 31-3 total record since he arrived here has some of us setting unrealistic expectations out there for him with the barn. We greedily want total domination and a return to winning so many in a row that barn players graduate without ever experiencing a win over us. But I’ve come to the conclusion that this simply isn’t your 1970s Auburn program and that further those days aren’t coming back.

I’ll take 2 out of every 3, but I admit I want more.

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I don't think so - at least not me. I'm with you, I want more. But what you are seeing is an explanation after the fact. Nothing can be done about the past but to examine and try to understand/describe/rationalize/etc. it, trying to look at it in as positive yet reasonable and truthful light as possible. That is all that is happening. What do you want ? A blasting of the program or CNS because Bama is only 70% during the hey-day of CNS' reign ? It could easily be 9-1, but unusual circumstances and 2 very good AU teams prohibited that. But I'm not going to cry over it. I wish that it was 10-0 and hope 2018 will be the first on such a streak. But griping about a loss or attributing it to voodoo is not going to help. The 2017 game has already happened, I can't change it, so I'm going to be thrilled about the continuation of this transcendent run and this year's erasure of pain provided by the spectacular NC win and look as objectively and briefly at any loss as my biased little heart and mind and Tidefans will allow :smile:. Come on man - enjoy it. It's football; and though imperfect, Alabama and CNS are spectacular. No one has ever done this and it's happening when more care about it than ever before. You are drowning in pure gold.

Think about AU fans. What do you think they are doing ? They are sitting in their igloos shivering, holding on during their polar winter as they wait for this Bama run to end - thankful for any brief ray of sunshine.

The reason CNS has buried Tennessee is because UT is a crap job that requires either a coach on their way up or on the their way down to take it. MSU is probably a better job because it has no expectations with better in state recruiting.

Auburn is in a talent rich state and a couple minutes from another. So they are going to be with a lot of talent despite what coach they have. Point is they are going to get one from us every now and then.

Maybe it's an irritable spot for some because 3 of Saban's Bama losses to AU came in games where a case could be made that we were outcoached. 2010 saw McElroy light up the AU defense for almost 300 yards in the first half, then we quit throwing. 2013 we give up a 2 TD lead and the othet coach makes the special team call that wins it. The desperation FG attempt with an unproven kicker maybe doesn't compare well to a Hail Mary attempt from a SR QB and the best WR we've ever had. 2017 was lost because of stubbornness on offense. No one's perfect and I'm thrilled with our record, I just hate losing to those fans.