FWIW, they computer polls were also secret - the actual formulas were not released, even to the BCS committee. So the whole "behind closed doors" CFP argument seems odd since you support the computer rankings.
True, the actual formulas (except for Colley) were never made public. BUT - Respectfully, the result of EVERY Computer Poll was published EVERY WEEK. And the METHODOLOGY for arriving at the consensus of the computers (which was NEVER a simple "average" or "majority rule") was likewise published.
We always knew, and we could cross check to see if the final numbers were correctly calculated.
Do we know how
any individual member of the "Double Secret Committee" has voted, at any point during the past 4 years?
Do we know which members voted UA #4 and which voted us #5 last December? (we know for the AP poll each week, and we know for the final "Coaches Poll" and we knew for the final Harris poll as well).
Do we know what Criteria (if any) MUST be considered by the committee?
Do we know the committee arives at it's results? What kinds of numbers are generated? or who they are tabulated?
Do the members vote by ordinals? or do they assign numerical scores?
Is the final poll a Simple average? Weighted average? Mean? Median?
Respectfully, the answer to ALL those questions, is "
NO". We just don't know. It's
all a SECRET. NOTHING can be "checked" or "verified".
All we know is the final result.
I'm pretty sure the committee has picked the same 4 teams that the BCS formula would've picked in every playoff. So, the outcome has been the same but just with a little more drama..
Well, RESPECTFULLY - yes and no. It's true that when we run "Proxy" BCS calculations, we almost always get the same result, but there are some problems there.
First and foremost - 1/3 of the BCS formula - the Harris Interactive Poll, no longer exists. So there's no way to guess how that Poll would have operated week to week - the Harris Poll DIDN'T always agree with the "Coaches" or the "Computers".
Second is the problem of cross-contamination, due to the "sheep" mentality of most of the Sportswriters (and many of the SID's and other functionaries who actually vote the "Coaches" poll). - NONE of them want to be singled out for being "Wrong" - at least not at the end. So once the first "Double Secret Committee" poll comes out - the AP and Coaches polls ALWAYS fall into line within a couple weeks. This is due to the FEAR of most sportswriters of someone asking them in January why they voted for the "Wrong" team.
So what happens is, by the time the final Four teams are selected, the AP and Coaches polls have each become nearly UNANIMOUS in Mirroring the Committee Poll, again, out of "fear" of being called out for being "wrong".
Here's just ONE example - last year, week 11 the first Committee poll is released, and 9-0 Wisconsin is ranked #8. The same week, the Coaches poll had Wisconsin at #3.
The next week Wisconsin wins again and goes to 10-0. And they didn't "Just" win - they beat a RANKED team, On the Road, by 24 points. But the Coaches moved them DOWN to #4???
Why?
Well, we all KNOW why, don't we? Because no one wants to be put on the spot by the media and asked why they voted differently than the "All Powerful OZ Committee".
So what you have is a classic "Self Fulfilling Prophecy". Happens every year.
The point being, this kind of "Cross contamination" really invalidates any serious attempt to divine what the ACTUAL BCS might have done.