LSU vs Miami and Auburn vs. Washington. Who you picking to win those games?

CoolBreeze

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Vegas opens with Auburn & Miami as 2.5-3 point favorites...meaning they are just as clueless as we are about these games. I will go with the better coaches - Richt & Peterson.
 

PA Tide Fan

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Vegas opens with Auburn & Miami as 2.5-3 point favorites...meaning they are just as clueless as we are about these games. I will go with the better coaches - Richt & Peterson.
In the case of Miami-LSU the AP Poll has Miami #8 and LSU#25. It would seem to me if those rankings are anywhere close to accurate then the #8 team in the country should be more than a 3 point favorite over #25.
 

B1GTide

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In the case of Miami-LSU the AP Poll has Miami #8 and LSU#25. It would seem to me if those rankings are anywhere close to accurate then the #8 team in the country should be more than a 3 point favorite over #25.
Remember that lines are about betting, not victory margin. LSU fans must bet a lot more than Miami fans right now.
 

81usaf92

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Remember that lines are about betting, not victory margin. LSU fans must bet a lot more than Miami fans right now.
Yeah I don’t think many people understand the betting line. Some Vegas guy told me to move a point one way then you need around 100 million to be placed on a side. For example: we opened as a -7 point favorite over Auburn last year 2 weeks prior but it was -3.5 at game time. Meaning more people started to take Auburn and forced what was Bama by the points to a slight favorite near pickem.

For the LSU-Miami game it’s probably the unknown about LSU and that it’s at a neutral site that is holding back betters.
 

PA Tide Fan

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Remember that lines are about betting, not victory margin. LSU fans must bet a lot more than Miami fans right now.
Yes, I understand that the betting public can move the lines. I think in this case though the line has remained about where it opened, so it appears the oddsmakers feel the pollsters got something wrong. Either Miami has been overrated or LSU underrated.
 

81usaf92

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Yes, I understand that the betting public can move the lines. I think in this case though the line has remained about where it opened, so it appears the oddsmakers feel the pollsters got something wrong. Either Miami has been overrated or LSU underrated.
That’s not necessarily true. Most first game mega matches start off low. Keep in mind we were only favored by 3 vs FSU. I think a lot of this particular game has to do with the unknowns on LSU. The line will probably end up being Miami -4.5 to 6.5 by Thursday.
 

B1GTide

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That’s not necessarily true. Most first game mega matches start off low. Keep in mind we were only favored by 3 vs FSU. I think a lot of this particular game has to do with the unknowns on LSU. The line will probably end up being Miami -4.5 to 6.5 by Thursday.
If you think it will move that much you should try to middle the game.
 

81usaf92

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If you think it will move that much you should try to middle the game.
I think the problem is that Vegas is conflicted on it because of the neutral site and LSU coach and qb situation. But I think it’s either going to stay or move up a few points once the average joes get invested on the bet.
 

uafan4life

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In the case of Miami-LSU the AP Poll has Miami #8 and LSU#25. It would seem to me if those rankings are anywhere close to accurate then the #8 team in the country should be more than a 3 point favorite over #25.
A team being a 7.0 point favorite doesn't necessarily mean that Vegas thinks they will or even should win by seven points; they could believe the team should win by 14 points. The betting line is set according to one thing only: trying to get an even split of betting dollars on both teams.

For example, let's say the Sabers are playing the Knights on the road. In seven of their last 10 games, the Sabres have failed to cover the spread. In six of their last 10 games, the Knights have covered the spread. In nine of their last 10 road games, the Sabers have failed to cover the spread. In eight of their last 10 home games, the Knights have covered the spread. As a result, Vegas sets the initial betting line at -7.0 for the Sabers. Had this game been played at a neutral site, it would have been -14.0 for the Sabers. Had it been a home game for the Sabers, the line would have been at -17.0 for them.

There are factors that are far more important to Vegas than to coaches, for example, and they all have to do with the way bettors bet.

Coaches want to win the game. Vegas wants to win money.

Vegas isn't predicting the outcome of the game when they set their betting lines; Vegas is predicting the behavior of bettors on the game.



ETA:
Also, Vegas plans on the line moving. Ideally, for them, it moves no more than three to four in one direction and then about halfway back by the day of the game. A 6.0 spread that moves up to 10.0 and then back to 7.0 or 7.5 by kickoff virtually guarantees Vegas a profit.
 
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bamaga

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I think Washington and Miami wins because I think Washington is a very good team and coach O is not a good head coach. I’m pulling for the cowpatty farmers and little stinky town because Bama needs he added strength of schedule this year as perception is that our schedule is weak.and then I will be sick for a month .
 

PA Tide Fan

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A team being a 7.0 point favorite doesn't necessarily mean that Vegas thinks they will or even should win by seven points; they could believe the team should win by 14 points. The betting line is set according to one thing only: trying to get an even split of betting dollars on both teams.

Vegas isn't predicting the outcome of the game when they set their betting lines; Vegas is predicting the behavior of bettors on the game.
My point was that the point spread does not match the big difference in poll rankings. If bettors thought Miami was indeed the #8 team in the country and LSU was only #25 then the spread would be 10+. No matter who creates the line either the pollsters are way off or the betting line is way off. Someone mentioned the fact that we were only a 3 point favorite over FSU last season which is true, but given the fact that we were preseason #1 and FSU was preseason #3 a 3 point spread is something one would expect in that case.
 
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