In the case of Miami-LSU the AP Poll has Miami #8 and LSU#25. It would seem to me if those rankings are anywhere close to accurate then the #8 team in the country should be more than a 3 point favorite over #25.Vegas opens with Auburn & Miami as 2.5-3 point favorites...meaning they are just as clueless as we are about these games. I will go with the better coaches - Richt & Peterson.
Remember that lines are about betting, not victory margin. LSU fans must bet a lot more than Miami fans right now.In the case of Miami-LSU the AP Poll has Miami #8 and LSU#25. It would seem to me if those rankings are anywhere close to accurate then the #8 team in the country should be more than a 3 point favorite over #25.
Yeah I don’t think many people understand the betting line. Some Vegas guy told me to move a point one way then you need around 100 million to be placed on a side. For example: we opened as a -7 point favorite over Auburn last year 2 weeks prior but it was -3.5 at game time. Meaning more people started to take Auburn and forced what was Bama by the points to a slight favorite near pickem.Remember that lines are about betting, not victory margin. LSU fans must bet a lot more than Miami fans right now.
Yes, I understand that the betting public can move the lines. I think in this case though the line has remained about where it opened, so it appears the oddsmakers feel the pollsters got something wrong. Either Miami has been overrated or LSU underrated.Remember that lines are about betting, not victory margin. LSU fans must bet a lot more than Miami fans right now.
That’s not necessarily true. Most first game mega matches start off low. Keep in mind we were only favored by 3 vs FSU. I think a lot of this particular game has to do with the unknowns on LSU. The line will probably end up being Miami -4.5 to 6.5 by Thursday.Yes, I understand that the betting public can move the lines. I think in this case though the line has remained about where it opened, so it appears the oddsmakers feel the pollsters got something wrong. Either Miami has been overrated or LSU underrated.
If you think it will move that much you should try to middle the game.That’s not necessarily true. Most first game mega matches start off low. Keep in mind we were only favored by 3 vs FSU. I think a lot of this particular game has to do with the unknowns on LSU. The line will probably end up being Miami -4.5 to 6.5 by Thursday.
I think the problem is that Vegas is conflicted on it because of the neutral site and LSU coach and qb situation. But I think it’s either going to stay or move up a few points once the average joes get invested on the bet.If you think it will move that much you should try to middle the game.
I'm in Double Jeopardy - so I say the same except for $1KLSU and the Barn for $500 Alex.
A team being a 7.0 point favorite doesn't necessarily mean that Vegas thinks they will or even should win by seven points; they could believe the team should win by 14 points. The betting line is set according to one thing only: trying to get an even split of betting dollars on both teams.In the case of Miami-LSU the AP Poll has Miami #8 and LSU#25. It would seem to me if those rankings are anywhere close to accurate then the #8 team in the country should be more than a 3 point favorite over #25.
My point was that the point spread does not match the big difference in poll rankings. If bettors thought Miami was indeed the #8 team in the country and LSU was only #25 then the spread would be 10+. No matter who creates the line either the pollsters are way off or the betting line is way off. Someone mentioned the fact that we were only a 3 point favorite over FSU last season which is true, but given the fact that we were preseason #1 and FSU was preseason #3 a 3 point spread is something one would expect in that case.A team being a 7.0 point favorite doesn't necessarily mean that Vegas thinks they will or even should win by seven points; they could believe the team should win by 14 points. The betting line is set according to one thing only: trying to get an even split of betting dollars on both teams.
Vegas isn't predicting the outcome of the game when they set their betting lines; Vegas is predicting the behavior of bettors on the game.