Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

81usaf92

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Well, if any of those four win out and the respective QB hasn't been suspended or injured, I'd tend to favor whomever that might be really. Here's the FPI win out %, 42.5% for Alabama, 14.1% Ohio State, 8.1% Oklahoma, and .4% West Virginia. So yeah if Grier carries them to an undefeated season, he'll deserve a lot of credit, but they were 7-6 last year so he has a lot of work to do.

In either case, it seems likely either Grier or Murray take the other out. In that case it might bolster the Heisman candidacy of one, but could end the other (much like when AJ and Alabama lost to Manziel and A&M). The worst case for those two if for them to just muddy the waters, if both have losses and both remain candidates they'll just split the Big 12 vote.

It's also interesting that you bring up Heisman moments, because Tua already kind of had his. Due to the quirk in Heisman voting, the playoffs are not included at all. So, Tua's much replayed championship winning pass came both this year and after the previous Heisman voting. Now, of course that was considered last season and doesn't count, but that doesn't erase the psychological impact of the play. It answered one of the biggest questions you can have about a candidate, which is how they'd perform on a big stage against elite competition. All of those other guys are still waiting to have a moment that can compare, and it won't be easy to match.
While I dismiss the Bama fatigue from the media having an effect on CFP voting I do however believe it does in heisman voting because it’s the media who has a vote

Let’s say WVU, tOSU, and Bama wins out which I think they all have really good chances of that. You will already know 4 region’s votes for 1st place.

South: Tua
SW: Grier
Mid Atl: Grier
Mid west: Haskins

Leaving the NE and Far West.

Honestly I believe Alabama blowing folks out might cost Tua. I believe we really need to have a shootout vs Missouri or UGA for Tua to win it. Also some passing records.
 
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bamacon

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While I dismiss the Bama fatigue from the media having an effect on CFP voting I do however believe it does in heisman voting because it’s the media who has a vote

Let’s say WVU, tOSU, and Bama wins out which I think they all have really good chances of that. You will already know 4 region’s votes for 1st place.

South: Tua
SW: Grier
Mid Atl: Grier
Mid west: Haskins

Leaving the NE and Far West.

Honestly I believe Alabama blowing folks out might cost Tua. I believe we really need to have a shootout vs Missouri or UGA for Tua to win it.
I would really like not to believe this line of thinking but I really cannot. That said, people can easily see how truly special Tua is. He keeps this pace and he will win the Heisman.


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KrAzY3

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Let’s say WVU, tOSU, and Bama wins out which I think they all have really good chances of that.
I do not disagree with your line of thinking, other than the idea that all three of those teams have a really good chance of winning out. That's like betting and winning a trifecta. If it happens, that would be a problem, but it's just very, very unlikely. West Virginia has a heck of a lot of work to do to run the table, and Grier could very well have to beat Oklahoma twice to pull that off. My money is on the field.
 

81usaf92

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I do not disagree with your line of thinking, other than the idea that all three of those teams have a really good chance of winning out. That's like betting and winning a trifecta. If it happens, that would be a problem, but it's just very, very unlikely. West Virginia has a heck of a lot of work to do to run the table, and Grier could very well have to beat Oklahoma twice to pull that off. My money is on the field.
Did you not hear about or see Oklahoma yesterday? OU’s defense is going to lose them some games ( plural). They are waiting to get beat.

Texas tech and WV are the best 2 teams in the Big 12 right now, and I don’t think that is going to change.
 
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BamaMoon

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Did I hear it correctly that Tua hasn't taken a snap in the forth quarter all year?

He probably won't the next two games either...that's got to be a "Heisman stat," right???
 

KrAzY3

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Did you not hear about or see Oklahoma yesterday? OU’s defense is going to lose them some games ( plural). They are waiting to get beat.
When is the last time a Big 12 team went undefeated? And somehow that's going to be a team that was 7-6 from last year? C'mon, this isn't about Oklahoma going undefeated, it's about the .4% chance of West Virginia going undefeated. I'm not sure how else I can explain it beyond .4% is very, very small odds. I don't think West Virginia has ever gone undefeated in the history of the program.
 

81usaf92

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When is the last time a Big 12 team went undefeated? And somehow that's going to be a team that was 7-6 from last year? C'mon, this isn't about Oklahoma going undefeated, it's about the .4% chance of West Virginia going undefeated. I'm not sure how else I can explain it beyond .4% is very, very small odds. I don't think West Virginia has ever gone undefeated in the history of the program.
small. yes, but when the eye test shows how bad these teams they are playing are, and how all but one of their major games is in Morgantown it really seems they have a better chance than 4%.

But you specifically stated playing Oklahoma twice, I think Oklahoma will get one shot at WVU and lose. If WVU is to lose then its going to be against a team that can match their fire power, and not one that couldn't score against ARMY.

FWIW I would take the field as well, but if you put 10 wins or more wins vs the field then I would be more hesitant on choosing the field
 
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78Alum

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Did I hear it correctly that Tua hasn't taken a snap in the forth quarter all year?

He probably won't the next two games either...that's got to be a "Heisman stat," right???
That is correct. He played yesterday later into the game than he has all year by far and his last snap was with over 2 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. Jalen came in for the last drive in the 3rd. So not only has Tua not played a full game yet, he hasn't even play 3/4 of a game... :cool2:
 

CajunCrimson

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I'd vote for Tua if they gave me a Tua Heisman Campaign Watch -- everyday at 2:26 is plays "Yea Alabama".....now THAT would be cool!
 

CoachInWaiting

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I think that the Heisman voters are sophisticated enough to know that Tua's numbers are going to come in less playing time than some others. If they want to use numbers as a justification to vote for someone else, they will and nobody can stop them from doing it.
 

KrAzY3

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Here's a couple of stats to look for. Alabama single season passing record for TDs is AJ at 30 (Heisman runner-up) and 3,487 yards by Blake Sims. Right now, Tua is on pace to have 3,099 yards and 36 TDs in 12 games. The competition will get tougher, but he should also get more playing time as that occurs. This sets Tua up to be breaking Alabama records in the SECCG for example.

Anyway, if people want to talk stats, I see those as significant. This is the school that had Namath and Stabler, along with a slew of QBs who got Heisman votes (AJ, Gilmer, Lewis, Trammel, Davis, Barker and Sloan). If he has what could definitively be the best season from an Alabama quarterback ever, I think that will go a long way.

Edit: I'll put this here to https://www.usatoday.com/story/spor...a-leads-ohio-state-dwayne-haskins/1413507002/
 
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BamaMoon

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Based upon the USA today article Krazy linked, he wins in a landslide if he keeps doing what he's doing.

And, I honestly think his passing yards per game will go up and his completion percentage might come down slightly when we get to the meat of our schedule, but better competition. I suspect he'll get more throws/minutes against St., LSU and Auburn. He'll eventually throw a few picks, but his TD numbers could go up with more minutes.
 

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