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  1. #79
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    Re: Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

    Quote Originally Posted by JBama_in_PCOLA View Post
    Donít think that is true. I havenít seen anything special on Grierís end.
    The problem is the voting system. If all three (Tua, Haskins, and Grier) are up for in the official voting period then it favors Grier because he is more likely to receive more 1st and 2nd place votes than both. It doesnít have to do with who is better it has to do with the voting format.

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  3. #80
    BamaNation Hall of Fame KrAzY3's Avatar
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    Re: Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

    Quote Originally Posted by 81usaf92 View Post
    Grier is going to probably win it unless WVU loses or Tua just has one of those “heisman moments”. I just don’t think we will have enough close games for him to show out.
    Well, if any of those four win out and the respective QB hasn't been suspended or injured, I'd tend to favor whomever that might be really. Here's the FPI win out %, 42.5% for Alabama, 14.1% Ohio State, 8.1% Oklahoma, and .4% West Virginia. So yeah if Grier carries them to an undefeated season, he'll deserve a lot of credit, but they were 7-6 last year so he has a lot of work to do.

    In either case, it seems likely either Grier or Murray take the other out. In that case it might bolster the Heisman candidacy of one, but could end the other (much like when AJ and Alabama lost to Manziel and A&M). The worst case for those two if for them to just muddy the waters, if both have losses and both remain candidates they'll just split the Big 12 vote.

    It's also interesting that you bring up Heisman moments, because Tua already kind of had his. Due to the quirk in Heisman voting, the playoffs are not included at all. So, Tua's much replayed championship winning pass came both this year and after the previous Heisman voting. Now, of course that was considered last season and doesn't count, but that doesn't erase the psychological impact of the play. It answered one of the biggest questions you can have about a candidate, which is how they'd perform on a big stage against elite competition. All of those other guys are still waiting to have a moment that can compare, and it won't be easy to match.
    Apologies if I said anything that could be construed as a personal insult.
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  4. #81
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    Re: Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

    Quote Originally Posted by KrAzY3 View Post
    Well, if any of those four win out and the respective QB hasn't been suspended or injured, I'd tend to favor whomever that might be really. Here's the FPI win out %, 42.5% for Alabama, 14.1% Ohio State, 8.1% Oklahoma, and .4% West Virginia. So yeah if Grier carries them to an undefeated season, he'll deserve a lot of credit, but they were 7-6 last year so he has a lot of work to do.

    In either case, it seems likely either Grier or Murray take the other out. In that case it might bolster the Heisman candidacy of one, but could end the other (much like when AJ and Alabama lost to Manziel and A&M). The worst case for those two if for them to just muddy the waters, if both have losses and both remain candidates they'll just split the Big 12 vote.

    It's also interesting that you bring up Heisman moments, because Tua already kind of had his. Due to the quirk in Heisman voting, the playoffs are not included at all. So, Tua's much replayed championship winning pass came both this year and after the previous Heisman voting. Now, of course that was considered last season and doesn't count, but that doesn't erase the psychological impact of the play. It answered one of the biggest questions you can have about a candidate, which is how they'd perform on a big stage against elite competition. All of those other guys are still waiting to have a moment that can compare, and it won't be easy to match.
    While I dismiss the Bama fatigue from the media having an effect on CFP voting I do however believe it does in heisman voting because itís the media who has a vote

    Letís say WVU, tOSU, and Bama wins out which I think they all have really good chances of that. You will already know 4 regionís votes for 1st place.

    South: Tua
    SW: Grier
    Mid Atl: Grier
    Mid west: Haskins

    Leaving the NE and Far West.

    Honestly I believe Alabama blowing folks out might cost Tua. I believe we really need to have a shootout vs Missouri or UGA for Tua to win it. Also some passing records.
    Last edited by 81usaf92; September 23rd, 2018 at 07:17 AM.

  5. #82
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    Re: Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

    Quote Originally Posted by 81usaf92 View Post
    While I dismiss the Bama fatigue from the media having an effect on CFP voting I do however believe it does in heisman voting because itís the media who has a vote

    Letís say WVU, tOSU, and Bama wins out which I think they all have really good chances of that. You will already know 4 regionís votes for 1st place.

    South: Tua
    SW: Grier
    Mid Atl: Grier
    Mid west: Haskins

    Leaving the NE and Far West.

    Honestly I believe Alabama blowing folks out might cost Tua. I believe we really need to have a shootout vs Missouri or UGA for Tua to win it.
    I would really like not to believe this line of thinking but I really cannot. That said, people can easily see how truly special Tua is. He keeps this pace and he will win the Heisman.


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  6. #83
    BamaNation Hall of Fame KrAzY3's Avatar
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    Re: Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

    Quote Originally Posted by 81usaf92 View Post
    Let’s say WVU, tOSU, and Bama wins out which I think they all have really good chances of that.
    I do not disagree with your line of thinking, other than the idea that all three of those teams have a really good chance of winning out. That's like betting and winning a trifecta. If it happens, that would be a problem, but it's just very, very unlikely. West Virginia has a heck of a lot of work to do to run the table, and Grier could very well have to beat Oklahoma twice to pull that off. My money is on the field.
    Apologies if I said anything that could be construed as a personal insult.
    "Everybody that chooses to go to the game should stay there and support the team for the game." - Nick Saban

  7. #84
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    Re: Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

    Quote Originally Posted by KrAzY3 View Post
    I do not disagree with your line of thinking, other than the idea that all three of those teams have a really good chance of winning out. That's like betting and winning a trifecta. If it happens, that would be a problem, but it's just very, very unlikely. West Virginia has a heck of a lot of work to do to run the table, and Grier could very well have to beat Oklahoma twice to pull that off. My money is on the field.
    Did you not hear about or see Oklahoma yesterday? OUís defense is going to lose them some games ( plural). They are waiting to get beat.

    Texas tech and WV are the best 2 teams in the Big 12 right now, and I donít think that is going to change.
    Last edited by 81usaf92; September 23rd, 2018 at 07:35 AM.

  8. #85
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    Re: Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

    Did I hear it correctly that Tua hasn't taken a snap in the forth quarter all year?

    He probably won't the next two games either...that's got to be a "Heisman stat," right???

  9. #86
    BamaNation Hall of Fame JBama_in_PCOLA's Avatar
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    Re: Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

    Quote Originally Posted by BamaMoon View Post
    Did I hear it correctly that Tua hasn't taken a snap in the forth quarter all year?

    He probably won't the next two games either...that's got to be a "Heisman stat," right???
    Yep! Barely played half of a third.

  10. #87
    BamaNation Hall of Fame KrAzY3's Avatar
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    Re: Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

    Quote Originally Posted by 81usaf92 View Post
    Did you not hear about or see Oklahoma yesterday? OU’s defense is going to lose them some games ( plural). They are waiting to get beat.
    When is the last time a Big 12 team went undefeated? And somehow that's going to be a team that was 7-6 from last year? C'mon, this isn't about Oklahoma going undefeated, it's about the .4% chance of West Virginia going undefeated. I'm not sure how else I can explain it beyond .4% is very, very small odds. I don't think West Virginia has ever gone undefeated in the history of the program.
    Apologies if I said anything that could be construed as a personal insult.
    "Everybody that chooses to go to the game should stay there and support the team for the game." - Nick Saban

  11. #88
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    Re: Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

    Quote Originally Posted by KrAzY3 View Post
    When is the last time a Big 12 team went undefeated? And somehow that's going to be a team that was 7-6 from last year? C'mon, this isn't about Oklahoma going undefeated, it's about the .4% chance of West Virginia going undefeated. I'm not sure how else I can explain it beyond .4% is very, very small odds. I don't think West Virginia has ever gone undefeated in the history of the program.
    small. yes, but when the eye test shows how bad these teams they are playing are, and how all but one of their major games is in Morgantown it really seems they have a better chance than 4%.

    But you specifically stated playing Oklahoma twice, I think Oklahoma will get one shot at WVU and lose. If WVU is to lose then its going to be against a team that can match their fire power, and not one that couldn't score against ARMY.

    FWIW I would take the field as well, but if you put 10 wins or more wins vs the field then I would be more hesitant on choosing the field
    Last edited by 81usaf92; September 23rd, 2018 at 03:22 PM.
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  12. #89
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    Re: Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

    Quote Originally Posted by BamaMoon View Post
    Did I hear it correctly that Tua hasn't taken a snap in the forth quarter all year?

    He probably won't the next two games either...that's got to be a "Heisman stat," right???
    That is correct. He played yesterday later into the game than he has all year by far and his last snap was with over 2 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. Jalen came in for the last drive in the 3rd. So not only has Tua not played a full game yet, he hasn't even play 3/4 of a game...

  13. #90
    BamaNation Hall of Fame CajunCrimson's Avatar
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    Re: Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

    I'd vote for Tua if they gave me a Tua Heisman Campaign Watch -- everyday at 2:26 is plays "Yea Alabama".....now THAT would be cool!
    Doc Holliday: [to Johnny Ringo, after shooting him in a duel] You're no daisy! You're no daisy at all. Poor soul, you were just too high strung

  14. #91
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    Re: Tua's Heisman Campaign watch

    I'd say Tua jumped back in front yesterday. If he continues with stats like those the Heisman will be his regardless of what the other teams do.

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