I think it's going to be Grier. I don't think Tua will get enough playing time and we will have too much of a running game. WVU could end up in some shootouts because their defense can't hold up. So he'll stay in the full game and throw for 500 yards and 5 tds. Tua will throw for 200 yards, 2-3 tds and leave the game at halfttime because the score will be 35-7 or something.
If our defense starts letting people score, it actually increases Tua's likelihood as he'll have to stay in the game to keep the scoring margin in our favor. If we stay healthy on defense, I don't like his chances.
I agree that he won't be able to keep up with Grier's stats. Grier will play the entire game whether WVU is blowing people out or in shootouts every week. But I think it could help Tua that, playing at Alabama, he will be in several national televised "big" games this year. WVU just doesn't have a lot of games other than Oklahoma that are going to resonate. They've got NC State in a couple of weeks and then they start the Big 12 schedule which is setting up to be utterly lackluster. I will say that they finish with Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, likely the only other contenders in the conference, and then there is the Big 12 title game which will be a rematch with one of those 2. If he has a strong finish with those 2 or 3 games, it could vault him over the top.
With Alabama's schedule, you've got several games this year that are going to be CBS 2:30 type games. I'm not looking at a national schedule so these are just examples of possibilities: Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri, Tennessee, Mississippi State, LSU and Auburn are all the types of games that will be broadcast to a national audience. A few of those could be tough games for us to win, thus providing the dramatic moments that can bring you a Heisman. Then you've got game in Atlanta against a Florida or Georgia that gives him another chance to grab all the spotlight. While I think Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry were the most deserving players when they won the award, what got them past the media favorites from Stanford (ironically, both years) was the enormity of playing at Alabama in those big games. I think that helps Tua overcome the stats difference, assuming he doesn't lose too much playing time to the rotation scheme.