Brasilian Elections: October 7th

Aledinho · Oct 6, 2018

Kia Lilly Caldwell said:
Last weekend, hundreds of thousands of Brazilian women marched nationwide against the far-right presidential frontrunner Jair Bolsonaro, under the banner of #EleNao – #NotHim.Bolsonaro, a pro-gun, anti-abortion congressman with strong evangelical backing, once told a fellow congressional representative that she “didn’t deserve to be raped” because she was “terrible and ugly.”Bolsonaro has seen a boost in the polls since he was stabbed at a campaign rally on Sept. 8 in a politically motivated attack.Brazil has shifted rightward since 2016, when the left-leaning female president Dilma Rousseff was ousted in a partisan impeachment process that many progressives regard as a political coup.Her successor, then Vice President Michel Temer, quickly passed an austerity budget that reversed many progressive policies enacted under Rousseff and her predecessor, Workers Party founder Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.The move decimated funding for agencies and laws that protect women, people of color and the very poor.

So if none of the ten candidates gets a majority of the vote, there will be a run off between the top two. Brasilian Trump will get one of the two spots and probably run against one of the two workers parties (either PT or PDT). I am for Ciro Gomes of PDT. I generally try to support the most honest politician regardless of party affiliation, and Ciro has been untouched by recent government scandals.

A couple of things that are different from elections here: voting is mandatory with a fine if you are eligible to vote and do not.

Second from the article:

This year, 9,204 of the 27,208 people running for office across Brazil are women, which reflects a law requiring political parties to nominate at least 30 percent women. About 13 percent of female candidates in 2018 are Afro-Brazilian.

Bamaro · Oct 7, 2018

Two short reads on Bolsonaro:
http://time.com/5415039/jair-bolsonaro-brazil/
http://time.com/5375731/jair-bolsonaro/

JTH · Oct 7, 2018

This is what you get when people get tired of corruption and failed policy. They look to the opposite end of the spectrum.

NationalTitles18 · Oct 7, 2018

JTH said:
This is what you get when people get tired of corruption and failed policy. They look to the opposite end of the spectrum.

Makes you wonder sometimes if they've truly considered the consequences or that there may be other options.

Aledinho · Oct 7, 2018

86% of the vote in:

It is 48% Bolsonaro (Brasilian Trump) and 27% Haddad (Workers party). It looks like Bolsonaro will not win the 50% needed to avoid a run off.

Haddad might be able to win the second round because I don't think Bolsonaro will be many voter's second choice. But it does not look good.

Zorak · Oct 7, 2018

99% in Bolsonaro at 46.1%, Haddad at 29.2%.

https://twitter.com/abc/status/[LEFT][COLOR=#14171A][FONT="Segoe UI"]https://twitter.com/SababaUSA/status/1049061908383457280[/FONT][/COLOR][/LEFT]

My wife (Brasilian) is watching the results with kind of a "it makes no difference which one you vote for, either way you're doomed" attitude. She's generally conservative (as am I), but has major reservations with Bolsonaro. Same deal with the 2016 US elections, couldn't in good conscience vote for Pres. Trump, so she (and I) voted third party (Libertarian, which I've been doing for a while now).

(Side note, Lula is from her state, Pernambuco).

Crimson1967 · Oct 8, 2018

Aledinho said:
86% of the vote in:

It is 48% Bolsonaro (Brasilian Trump) and 27% Haddad (Workers party). It looks like Bolsonaro will not win the 50% needed to avoid a run off.

Haddad might be able to win the second round because I don't think Bolsonaro will be many voter's second choice. But it does not look good.

He got 48% to begin with, so he doesn’t need that many to flip to him in the runoff.

Are you an American living in Brazil? Are you allowed to vote there?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

AUDub · Oct 8, 2018

Watched Oliver's clip on the election this morning. Pretty sobering.

Its On A Slab · Oct 9, 2018

Brazil is what happens when you have bad choices. Human nature tends to choose the worst instead of the lesser of the two evils.

I chose Dubya in 2000, thinking he would be a mild-mannered, centrist, middle-of-the-roader like his Dad. Boy, was I mistaken.

We had the same crappy options in 2016, and just enough people in three swing states tipped the EC to this abysmal catastrophe.

92tide · Oct 9, 2018

Its On A Slab said:
Brazil is what happens when you have bad choices. Human nature tends to choose the worst instead of the lesser of the two evils.

I chose Dubya in 2000, thinking he would be a mild-mannered, centrist, middle-of-the-roader like his Dad. Boy, was I mistaken.

We had the same crappy options in 2016, and just enough people in three swing states tipped the EC to this abysmal catastrophe.

i had several friends in 2000 with the attitude, "we need to shake things up, how bad could it be"

NationalTitles18 · Oct 9, 2018

Its On A Slab said:
Brazil is what happens when you have bad choices. Human nature tends to choose the worst instead of the lesser of the two evils.

I chose Dubya in 2000, thinking he would be a mild-mannered, centrist, middle-of-the-roader like his Dad. Boy, was I mistaken.

We had the same crappy options in 2016, and just enough people in three swing states tipped the EC to this abysmal catastrophe.

But if you choose a better candidate that "has no chance" then you will drown without the lifeboat a different crappy candidate others can agree on would give you. Nevermind the holes in said lifeboat or that idiot candidate that is electable helped sink the ship in the first place.

jthomas666 · Oct 9, 2018

USA: Elects Trump
Brazil: Hold my beer
Kavanaugh: I LIKE BEER!!

Its On A Slab · Oct 9, 2018

NationalTitles17 said:
But if you choose a better candidate that "has no chance" then you will drown without the lifeboat a different crappy candidate others can agree on would give you. Nevermind the holes in said lifeboat or that idiot candidate that is electable helped sink the ship in the first place.

I think most people thought we didn't have a good candidate, and either stayed home or said, "Hey, let's try to upset the system."

I doubt Hillary would last more than one term (with all of her negatives). Maybe be a place-holder until we could get two better candidates in 2020.

I saw a bumper sticker yesterday that read "I Miss Nixon". I was laughing with the guy in the parking lot. He said, "I thought I'd never say that." My response, "I thought I'd never say, 'I miss Dubya."

Aledinho · Oct 9, 2018

Crimson1967 said:
He got 48% to begin with, so he doesn’t need that many to flip to him in the runoff.
Are you an American living in Brazil? Are you allowed to vote there?

I am an American living in Atlanta. My ex-wife is Brasilian, and I self identify as Brasilian (if Elizabeth Warren can, so can I).

I think Bolsonaro is more than likely to win; but if you add the three left candidates up then it is a 46% to 42% race. So of the other 12% of voters, 3 to 1 would have to break for Haddad for the PT to win.

After Angry First Round, Brazilians Seem Ready To Elect a Radical Right-Wing President

To tackle Brazil’s record-high violence, Bolsonaro says he would ease gun laws and reduce the age of criminal responsibility from 18 to 16. He is a staunch proponent of reactivating the death penalty in Brazil, saying that he would “volunteer to kill those on death row” himself.

A survey conducted in August by the Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics showed that only 25 percent of citizens trusted their federal government and 18 percent trusted Congress.Other public opinion polling has put faith in Brazil’s government closer to zero.

MattinBama · Oct 10, 2018

Aledinho · Oct 10, 2018

Sem falar português, índios Enawenê-nawê votam pela primeira vez em MT

Without speaking Portuguese, the indigenous Enawenê-nawê vote for the first time in Mato Grosso. The tribe only established contact with the rest of the country in 1970s and has a single telephone line to establish contact with the outside world.

UAH · Oct 10, 2018

Aledinho said:
Sem falar português, índios Enawenê-nawê votam pela primeira vez em MT

Without speaking Portuguese, the indigenous Enawenê-nawê vote for the first time in Mato Grosso. The tribe only established contact with the rest of the country in 1970s and has a single telephone line to establish contact with the outside world.

It is interesting to me to see most of the native population around the Amazon region speaking fluent Portuguese as well as the large Japanese population around the country who speak Portuguese almost exclusively.

In terms of the election it appeared to me that Lula would have competed very well in the election if he had not been falsely charged and jailed.

Most of my acquaintances in Brazil supported the Workers Party and one was very active in the Women's march.

Aledinho · Oct 10, 2018

Can Brazilians from the Poor Northeast Prevent Favorite Bolsonaro from Becoming President?

Certainly Bolsonaro’s track record makes for some shocking reading. He reportedly said to a female congresswoman, publicly, that he would not sexually assault her because she was not worthy of him. He has also stated that it is better to have a dead son than a gay one and that gay people were not beaten enough as children.In a country with a soaring murder rate and an alarming reputation for police brutality – particularly against young black men – his proposed solutions to the violence are more guns, giving the police free rein to shoot without repercussion, and reducing the age a child can be tried as an adult to 14 (from 18).

He is a former captain in the Brazilian military and presenter Stephen Fry recently stated that Bolsonaro’s fantasy militarism made his interview with him “one of the most chilling confrontations” he has ever had.Bolsonaro even dedicated his vote to impeach Dilma Rousseff to Colonel Brilhante Ustra, who was charged with human rights abuses for torturing activists during Brazil’s military dictatorship.

For context, Dilma Rousseff as a young woman was captured and tortured by the same military police that Ustra was a part. (And that the CIA trained to torture more effectively.)

If Bolsonaro is to be stopped, Brazil’s poorest, most disdained region will play a large part in it. There is only one state outside the Northeast – Pará – where the majority of votes did not go to Bolsonaro. The northeastern states, however, all voted for Fernando Haddad, of the Worker’s Party, or the center-left candidate, Ciro Gomes.This is not a new trend. In 2014, the majority of Brazil’s northeast voted for Worker’s Party candidate Rousseff in the presidential election (which she went on to win), with some states in the region giving her nearly 80% of the vote. This led to heated debates on social media under the hashtag #EssesNordestinos (or #ThoseNortheasterners), used by both sides.

It's a tough road, but I think we can do it.

Its On A Slab · Oct 11, 2018

Aledinho said:
Can Brazilians from the Poor Northeast Prevent Favorite Bolsonaro from Becoming President?

For context, Dilma Rousseff as a young woman was captured and tortured by the same military police that Ustra was a part. (And that the CIA trained to torture more effectively.)

It's a tough road, but I think we can do it.

I have friends in Argentina. The stain of the dictatorship lingers on. We visited ESMA last December - the main death camp for the Desaparecidos. We told the taxi driver where we wanted to go, and he told us that he had been a seaman training at that facility. All he said was, "We did what we did for the good of the country." There was silence in the cab all the way to ESMA. My significant other(a Portena) had lost several good friends during the Dirty War.

It is hard to believe, but some in those societies still think the military dictatorships were a good thing.

I worked with a young lady a few years ago who was from the German portion of Brazil. She thought Obama was a communist, and she HATED Lula and all that he stood for. I often thought, given her ethnic heritage, if her family harbored sympathy for the Nazis. Brazil was known to hide ex-Nazis on the ratline. Mengele lived openly there and in Paraguay.

Aledinho · Oct 11, 2018

I was talking with a friend in Sao Paulo who will probably move to Italy if Bolsonaro wins. She is expecting it to get dangerous if he wins.

Brasilian Elections: October 7th

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