Is Kirby the next great coach or is just another Saban disciple?

TideEngineer08 · Oct 17, 2018

Bryant0086 said:
I am far from an Alabama apologist, but that game was much more about Utah being absolutely in the zone as opposed to Alabama playing particularly poorly. They would have beat any team on that day. If I am not mistaken, their former Utes QB Brian Johnson, that slayed Bama, not only sang for AC/DC (joking..... same name,) but is an offensive assistant at Florida and was the MSU QB coach from 14-15

That's why I said we were outclassed. They played a great game and we didn't have what it took to measure up. Some of it was due to losing the left side of our OL, which had pretty much driven our entire offense all year. Some of it was hangover from the Florida loss in the SEC championship game. But I take nothing away from Utah. Although they and their coach showed themselves to be classless blowhards after the game, they more than earned it that night. I'm just saying that despite us being overwhelmed, we still fought back and made it a game. I have not seen that from Georgia under Kirby Smart, except against Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl.

KrAzY3 · Oct 17, 2018

selmaborntidefan said:
However......could Smart win one or maybe two? Absolutely. He's not going to be the next Bryant or Saban.

I think Jimbo really lines up the best. A lot of Saban's "disciples" didn't really land in great positions. Pruitt is as good an example as any. He inherited a mess and there was no way for him to hit the ground running. His victory over Auburn is as impressive as anything Smart did his first year though. So, sure Kirby can win a championship, but I haven't seen anything from him that would allow him to break away from the "pack" of elite coaches.

81usaf92 said:
My point is that it maybe an overreaction because Kirby has shown through 3 years that he is a great recruiter but not a good game coach.

It smells a little bit like Les Miles to me. Les inherited a great team, he had fantastic in-state recruiting, he won a championship by year three, and he racked up a lot of wins. Ultimately though he just couldn't get past Saban and Alabama. Of course the one thing in Smart's favor is that he should be able to outlast Saban, but is he actually a better coach than Miles?

Moro Creek · Oct 17, 2018

IMO, Kirby is another Mark Richt with better recruiting skills.

selmaborntidefan · Oct 17, 2018

81usaf92 said:
I think the disconnect in this argument is understanding my issue with “Kirby is more than just another disciple”. My point is that so many commentators and fans from both schools (UGA and UA) have jumped on to the train of it’s a fact that Kirby will be the death of the dynasty, Kirby will be the next dynasty in the SEC, Kirby is going to be the one to break the undertaker’s streak, yadda yadda yadda. My point is that it maybe an overreaction because Kirby has shown through 3 years that he is a great recruiter but not a good game coach.

One thing that weighs in his favor is his year two ascent. Go look at most of the accomplished coaches in recent years - those who were likewise in the "right place" - and you'll usually find a major leap between year one and year two.

Bob Stoops won a national title his second year at OU.
Saban won an SEC title his second year at LSU.
Jimmy Johnson had an 8-5 first year at Miami and knocked off the eventual national champs in 1985
Pat Dye had a losing team his first year at Auburn and his second team showed great strides forward as well
Lou Holtz had Notre Dame from 5 to 8 wins his second year at N Dame and from 0 to 8 at SCAR
Steve Spurrier won the SEC in his second year at Florida (and would have won the first had UF been eligible)
Bobby Bowden went 10-2 his second year at FSU
Gene Stallings went 11-1 his second year at Alabama (after a down 7-5 year in 1990)
Jim Tressel won a national title his second year at Ohio St
Pete Carroll's 6-6 USC went 11-2 with a Heisman winner in his 2nd year

Year two is a year of major growth for good football coaches, and Kirby did so. Even Tom Herman right now is doing rather well.

Of course, there ARE exceptions (Gene Chizik, Charlie Weis).....

While there are exceptions, there is usually substantial growth between year one and the "real" first recruits of a new coach in year two.

81usaf92 said:
My point is that before this season it seems everyone was so sure Kirby was going to be a dominant force in the SEC, and one that rivaled Alabama in every way imaginable. But it’s beginning to look like Mullen and Stoops aren’t that far behind ,if at all, with lesser talent.

Stoops is having a fluke year.

Mullen may undo Smart before it's over with. He did quite well in Starkvegas (talent gap considered).

DzynKingRTR · Oct 17, 2018

selmaborntidefan said:
One thing that weighs in his favor is his year two ascent. Go look at most of the accomplished coaches in recent years - those who were likewise in the "right place" - and you'll usually find a major leap between year one and year two.

Bob Stoops won a national title his second year at OU.
Saban won an SEC title his second year at LSU.
Jimmy Johnson had an 8-5 first year at Miami and knocked off the eventual national champs in 1985
Pat Dye had a losing team his first year at Auburn and his second team showed great strides forward as well
Lou Holtz had Notre Dame from 5 to 8 wins his second year at N Dame and from 0 to 8 at SCAR
Steve Spurrier won the SEC in his second year at Florida (and would have won the first had UF been eligible)
Bobby Bowden went 10-2 his second year at FSU
Gene Stallings went 11-1 his second year at Alabama (after a down 7-5 year in 1990)
Jim Tressel won a national title his second year at Ohio St
Pete Carroll's 6-6 USC went 11-2 with a Heisman winner in his 2nd year

Year two is a year of major growth for good football coaches, and Kirby did so. Even Tom Herman right now is doing rather well.

Of course, there ARE exceptions (Gene Chizik, Charlie Weis).....

While there are exceptions, there is usually substantial growth between year one and the "real" first recruits of a new coach in year two.

Stoops is having a fluke year.

Mullen may undo Smart before it's over with. He did quite well in Starkvegas (talent gap considered).

You left off the great Larry Coker. He won a title his first year.

selmaborntidefan · Oct 17, 2018

DzynKingRTR said:
You left off the great Larry Coker. He won a title his first year.

I left him off mostly because he had been the OC for six years at that school before becoming the head coach. He inherited a monster squad as was subsequently proven when he tanked it.

None of the other guys was in a similar situation. Just FWIW - that's why I did it that way.

DrollTide · Oct 17, 2018

We were one play away last year from saying that Smart had caught up with and overtook Saban.

There is some evidence that this year's Bulldogs are not as good as last year's, but then they lost a regular season game last year, and so did Alabama. I think the jury is still out - if Georgia wins out, they will be the SEC champs and then the national champs. Either way, the question will kind of answer itself.

But I do think that Saban still has more than an edge, and even prior to last Saturday, I thought the Bulldogs-as-#2-team were not anywhere near as good as Alabama, even though they have recruited at a high level for a couple of years. I think Smart's recruiting edge, if it ever really existed, has peaked.

Oh - and an important point, the East is not just a bunch of patsies like we perhaps thought at the beginning of the year. Florida is definitely on the way up, enough to challenge them this year, and Tennessee is improving also. Kentucky may be tough this year (but they have probably peaked).

BamaInBham · Oct 17, 2018

selmaborntidefan said:
One thing that weighs in his favor is his year two ascent. Go look at most of the accomplished coaches in recent years - those who were likewise in the "right place" - and you'll usually find a major leap between year one and year two.

Bob Stoops won a national title his second year at OU.
Saban won an SEC title his second year at LSU.
Jimmy Johnson had an 8-5 first year at Miami and knocked off the eventual national champs in 1985
Pat Dye had a losing team his first year at Auburn and his second team showed great strides forward as well
Lou Holtz had Notre Dame from 5 to 8 wins his second year at N Dame and from 0 to 8 at SCAR
Steve Spurrier won the SEC in his second year at Florida (and would have won the first had UF been eligible)
Bobby Bowden went 10-2 his second year at FSU
Gene Stallings went 11-1 his second year at Alabama (after a down 7-5 year in 1990)
Jim Tressel won a national title his second year at Ohio St
Pete Carroll's 6-6 USC went 11-2 with a Heisman winner in his 2nd year

Year two is a year of major growth for good football coaches, and Kirby did so. Even Tom Herman right now is doing rather well.

Of course, there ARE exceptions (Gene Chizik, Charlie Weis).....

While there are exceptions, there is usually substantial growth between year one and the "real" first recruits of a new coach in year two.

Stoops is having a fluke year.

Mullen may undo Smart before it's over with. He did quite well in Starkvegas (talent gap considered).

2 other relevant ones are Larry Coker and Gene Chizik. The point is that many coaches who take over loaded programs do well the 2nd year (in Coker's case the 1st year as well). Some that you mentioned did not take over loaded programs: Bowden, Stoops, Saban, Dye, Holtz, Stallings, Carroll. With Kirby some of the enthusiasm of his very good 2nd year is tempered by his bad, almost disastrous first year when he grossly underachieved. But since it was his first HC job some patience is in order. The point is that it is waaayyy too early to offer anything close to a definitive answer - we're all just guessing as to whether he will be anything other than a decent HC sitting on a gold mine. That's fine. As to his being another Saban, IMO from observing him to this point - he has no chance to be another Saban. He seems to have the drive and focus but not the exceptional intelligence or wisdom. IMO, Pruitt probably has the intelligence, don't know about the wisdom. I know JP has improved dramatically in some respects in regard to wisdom from the time he left for FSU until now.

GrayTide · Oct 17, 2018

I am not a huge fan of Will Muschamp and seriously question his longevity even at USCe. Unlike Fisher and Smart, I do not think he has a promising career as HC, maybe he is only a career DC. I believe Mullen is the real deal and will return Florida to a national power. Stoops is having a good year, but will fade, he is about the best Kentucky can hope for. Obviously the jury is still out on Pruitt. Like UK, Odom is about the best Missouri can expect. Nobody cares what happens at Vanderbilt, although I like Mason, 6 or 7 wins is his ceiling at Vanderbilt.

In the West, Fisher may be the next great SEC coach. Gus is toast, either this year or in the next several years. Luke is a placeholder at Ole Miss, Moorhead is okay but will not approach Mullen's performance. Orgeron may actually work out at LSU as long as Aranda stays, when he leaves all bets are off. Morris at Arkansas could go either way, but suspect he will be there no more than 3-4 years.

Gallowglas · Oct 17, 2018

He put them in the national title game and were competitive in that game, so I'd hardly think it appropriate to dismiss them. Give Kirby another couple of years so that the whole team is his top to bottom and we'll see. I think it's hard to tell from a single upset loss. We've had our share of those. The proof is in what you're able to do year in and year out and he just doesn't have enough of a body of work for anyone to really say one way or the other.

Gallowglas · Oct 17, 2018

GrayTide said:
I am not a huge fan of Will Muschamp and seriously question his longevity even at USCe.

Muschamp's ship has sailed IMHO. I think it's pretty evident now that he doesn't have the magic formula to make things happen.

KrAzY3 · Oct 17, 2018

Gallowglas said:
He put them in the national title game and were competitive in that game, so I'd hardly think it appropriate to dismiss them. Give Kirby another couple of years so that the whole team is his top to bottom and we'll see.

It isn't dismissing so much as some people want to anoint him as the next great college coach. Chizik won a championship, Miles won a championship, so clearly just going to a championship game isn't a true measure of greatness. I do agree we have to give him time but the jury is still out.

Ole Man Dan · Oct 18, 2018

selmaborntidefan said:
I think - respectfully - a number of the assessments here are a tad bit misguided.

Kirby Smart has coached for 35 college games at the highest level in the toughest conference and has a record of 27-8. He did this with NO prior head coaching experience anywhere. He won an SEC title in his second year and played for a national championship in a highly competitive era. He got this job at forty years old.

How did other coaches start their careers?

Coach Bryant was 23-11-1 in his first 35 games and finished no higher than fifth in the conference. He began coaching at 32. If you start with Bryant at age forty (1953), his first 35 games resulted in an overall record of 19-13-3, nine of those losses coming in the year he decimated his large squad into a small one at Junction. He had no real blowout losses at the start of his career, although he had a 41-9 massacre at the hands of Texas Tech in his ATM debut.

Coach Saban began at Michigan St (I don't consider Toledo overly relevant to this discussion) at age 43. His first 35 games yielded a record of 19-15-1. He had a 40-point blowout loss to Nebraska in his debut, a 31-point loss to Wisconsin, a 41-point blowout to Nebraska, a 38-point wipeout to Stanford (1996) and in his 36th game a four TD loss to Washington in the Aloha Bowl.

Just a cursory look at how some guys began their careers is quite favorable for Kirby Smart's ascent to "legend." Of course - as I keep saying - context is everything. Kirby took over a 10-3 football team from a coach who had been there for 15 years and established a solid foundation. Bryant took over a Maryland team that was 1-7-1 in 1944, a Kentucky team that was 5-14 in the previous two years, and a 4-5-1 Aggies team that hadn't had a real good season (by their standards) since 1950. Saban took over a 5-6 Sparty team that got socked with a major probation right after he arrived while playing in a rather competitive conference.

I would also point out that when we're talking Bryant and Saban, we are talking about a "once in every few generations" talent, not "best who is out there right now." Kirby Smart is NOT going to become the next guy to win six national championships. He's not going to win five or even four national titles. (And in case Tim Brando is scouring this site, neither is Scott Frost).

However......could Smart win one or maybe two? Absolutely. He's not going to be the next Bryant or Saban. If you were to ask me my opinion at this time, I think Smart will have a long and successful career at Georgia somewhere along the lines of a Vince Dooley, Mack Brown, Lou Holtz, or Don James - a guy who is by no means a legend but is a solid, winning football coach with a constantly contending team.

==============================================

Of course, Smart might also be the next Gene Chizik, too. This one is eerie.

Gene Chizik was 27-8 after 35 games. Just like Kirby Smart.
Gene Chizik was 8-5 in his first year. Just like Kirby Smart.
Gene Chizik won a close bowl game to finish his first year. Just like Kirby Smart.
Gene Chizik won the SEC title game in his second year. Just like Kirby Smart.
Gene Chizik played for the national title in his second year and hit a late field goal for a three-point lead in the game. Just like Kirby Smart. (Yeah, I know Gene won his).
Gene Chizik got blown out by LSU by double digits in Baton Rouge in his 35th game. Just like Kirby Smart.

Great comparison.
BTW: I would guess a lot of Auburn Fans wish they had Gene back right now.
S.N.A.S.S.

CoachInWaiting · Oct 18, 2018

I'm neither pro or anti Kirby Smart. He was a great DC for us for years and I'll always appreciate that and recognize his abilities there. But, I've been around long enough to see a large number of coaches be raised up as the next big thing to then become less than what was expected. Mark Richt was one of those, and as has been thoroughly documented, Kirby and Richt are in a dead heat statistically to date. Richt has been and still is a winning coach, and a good one to boot. But not on a different plane like a Saban, Bryant, Bowden, or Meyer. The list also includes guys like Mike Archer at LSU who hit the ground running in the 80's and every pundit had him penciled in as the next Amos Alonzo Stagg. There was Ken Hatfield, Tommy Bowden, Mack Brown, just to name a few more. Sure, they made some noise and won some games (made some money), but none are exactly headed for the coach's Mt. Rushmore. Time will tell on Kirby, and he has the odds on his side as far as winning at least one National Championship, but everybody needs to keep the corks in the champagne for a little while yet.

selmaborntidefan · Oct 18, 2018

Another coach I didn't mention from way back in the recesses of my borderline criminal mind was Mike Archer.

He inherited the 1986 SEC champions (a fluke, but they won).

In 1987, they went 10-1-1.....their only loss was to 7-5 Alabama.

His second year, they began 2-0 (making him 12-1-1), but then they played Ohio State in Columbus and barely lost and then lost to Florida.

The following week, they SHOULD have lost to Auburn, scoring the winning TD in the waning moments in the infamous Earthquake Game. They barely scraped by 5-6 Kentucky and then beat us when we blew a 15-0 lead (thanks a lot, Bill Curry). At this point, Archer could VERY easily have been 13-7-1, but he was 16-3-1. One more win against a terrible Miss St team....and he went right over the cliff. He went 10-15 the next 25 games and was canned.

selmaborntidefan · Oct 18, 2018

You do a good job summarizing my thought process here.

BamaInBham said:
2 other relevant ones are Larry Coker and Gene Chizik. The point is that many coaches who take over loaded programs do well the 2nd year (in Coker's case the 1st year as well).

The reason I did not include these is because I was making the point that the reason a lot of people have jumped on the Kirby bandwagon is because GENERALLY speaking year two is a telltale year. That's not ALWAYS true, of course, but it's one of the things that goes into evidence in evaluating it.

The reason I didn't include Coker is that unlike all of the other examples, Coker was involved with the team he took over. That - to me - is a TOTALLY different situation. Coker had been involved with those players for their entire careers. That, too, is part of why I didn't really talk about Mike Archer at LSU, I was referencing more of guys who went from job A to job B (unrelated to their previous job) and how they did.

That's why I didn't include Coker.

BamaInBham said:
Some that you mentioned did not take over loaded programs: Bowden, Stoops, Saban, Dye, Holtz, Stallings, Carroll.

Which was in fact my point when we evaluate them. George Seifert took over a Super Bowl champion and won it the next year. We kind of write off that accomplishment.....but look how rare that REALLY is. Phil Bengston didn't win a Super Bowl with Lombardi's players the next year. Ray Handley didn't win one with Parcells's Super Bowl XXV Giants.

Don McCafferty won Super Bowl V with Don Shula's players, but he was mostly lucky. The others are Seifert, Kubiak, and Gruden (Switzer came very close).

BamaInBham said:
With Kirby some of the enthusiasm of his very good 2nd year is tempered by his bad, almost disastrous first year when he grossly underachieved. But since it was his first HC job some patience is in order. The point is that it is waaayyy too early to offer anything close to a definitive answer - we're all just guessing as to whether he will be anything other than a decent HC sitting on a gold mine. That's fine. As to his being another Saban, IMO from observing him to this point - he has no chance to be another Saban. He seems to have the drive and focus but not the exceptional intelligence or wisdom. IMO, Pruitt probably has the intelligence, don't know about the wisdom. I know JP has improved dramatically in some respects in regard to wisdom from the time he left for FSU until now.

Fair enough.

KrAzY3 · Oct 18, 2018

One thing Kirby has to overcome, which happens to be something Saban is a master at, is keeping his team competitive in every single game.

We can talk overall records, and in terms of high end potential his teams seem to be up there with just about anyone. However, he's had big upset losses in each of his first three seasons now.
In 2016 he lost to Ole Miss 45-14. Georgia was the higher ranked team, and got spanked by Ole Miss. In 2017 he lost to Auburn 17-40. At that point Auburn was a two loss team and Georgia was undefeated. Now he was upset by LSU, 36-16.

The good sign for him is those were all ranked teams, so it wasn't like he was getting spanked by mediocre teams. Too give an example though, the three worst losses Nick Saban has had at Alabama were exactly 14 points (so he's never had a 3 score loss at Alabama). Going back to 2012 Alabama has lost their games by a combined 60 points. That's 64 for Kirby in just three games, a very un-Saban like thing to do.

TiderMan · Oct 18, 2018

KrAzY3 said:
One thing Kirby has to overcome, which happens to be something Saban is a master at, is keeping his team competitive in every single game.

We can talk overall records, and in terms of high end potential his teams seem to be up there with just about anyone. However, he's had big upset losses in each of his first three seasons now.
In 2016 he lost to Ole Miss 45-14. Georgia was the higher ranked team, and got spanked by Ole Miss. In 2017 he lost to Auburn 17-40. At that point Auburn was a two loss team and Georgia was undefeated. Now he was upset by LSU, 36-16.

The good sign for him is those were all ranked teams, so it wasn't like he was getting spanked by mediocre teams. Too give an example though, the three worst losses Nick Saban has had at Alabama were exactly 14 points (so he's never had a 3 score loss at Alabama). Going back to 2012 Alabama has lost their games by a combined 60 points. That's 64 for Kirby in just three games, a very un-Saban like thing to do.

You are correct but you are also comparing Kirby to Saban while Saban is at Alabama. It probably would be better to compare the two on Saban's time at Michigan St or even LSU. Saban lost several times to blow-outs at those coaching stops or lost to teams he shouldn't have lost to. He has gotten better as a head coach and evolved into the best head coach in the country. It is unfair to compare Kirby to what Saban is now.

BamaJama17 · Oct 18, 2018

Well we must also consider that Kirby has had a majority of Richt’s players as starters up until this point. Even if he doesn’t duplicate what Saban did, I can still see them winning one or two national championships if he is there for 10-15 years. However his biggest barriers are not just Saban, he also has to contend with Mullen and potentially Pruitt before he’d even face Alabama in the SECG and of course their annual game against Auburn. When Saban came, the Alabama program had been in turmoil and had years of bad recruiting. When Kirby came to Georgia he inherited a gold mine and resides in a state with far superior HS talent than Alabama and borders Florida as well. You can get a top 5 recruiting class by just recruiting in those two states alone. Long story short, Kirby will improve with time...as long as the fans stay patient.

KrAzY3 · Oct 18, 2018

TiderMan said:
You are correct but you are also comparing Kirby to Saban while Saban is at Alabama. It probably would be better to compare the two on Saban's time at Michigan St or even LSU.

I don't think it would be... Kirby inherited a team that was well stocked with talent, and fairly well coached as well. The worst Georgia had been in the 4 years prior to Kirby was 8-5.

LSU? 3-9, Michigan State? 3-9, and heck Alabama, 4-9. This is where the born on third thing comes into play, the truth is it is hard to come up with valid comparisons because coaches doing as well as Richt really don't get fired. Kirby inherited one of the best situation any coach has in recent memory, and there's no real comparison to what Saban inherited as LSU or Michigan State, heck it's not even fair to compare it to what Saban inherited at Alabama because Kirby inherited both better players and a better recruiting situation. The best comparison would probably be Lincoln Riley who is 17-3 as a head coach.

This doesn't mean he's a bad coach, but in truth he's done less with more thus far.

Is Kirby the next great coach or is just another Saban disciple?

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