I missed most of the LSU Georgia game. I hadn't realized before now that Georgia let LSU run all over it. I can't see us allowing that to happen.
Question: X’s and O’s...How does Bama matchup against LSU?
- Thread starter Tide&True
- Start date
i wasn’t bashing your schedule, CA stated for comparison sake, it was necessary to look at SOS and other things. I offered up a stat.
Alabama is the consensus #1 team in the nation as voted by the media. Right now, the expectation is Alabama will be a 14 point favorite. 2018 Alabama is being touted as the best team of all time. Tua is at the top of everyone’s heisman list. There is no lack of love or respect for Alabama from the national media. No Alabama player knows or cares what some LSU fans may say on the internet.
There are two areas that concern me against LSU, and they are both on offense. Tua's accuracy, while still very good, has not been as quite as good since hurting his knee. Alot of his incompletions have been high. I realize he hasn't been intercepted yet, but missing high can be dangerous against a talented secondary like LSU. If he does have an interception or two, does he then get gun shy, which is not what we need.
The other area of concern is our ability to run when LSU is anticipating the run. We might be able to get away with it if Tua performs like he has been, but if he struggles, can we rely on the run game? We should be able to, but we haven't proven it yet.
I'm not worried at all with LSU's offense, assuming we don't give them a short field to work with. I have seen nothing from them this season that indicates they can consistently create long drives against a good defense.
The other area of concern is our ability to run when LSU is anticipating the run. We might be able to get away with it if Tua performs like he has been, but if he struggles, can we rely on the run game? We should be able to, but we haven't proven it yet.
I'm not worried at all with LSU's offense, assuming we don't give them a short field to work with. I have seen nothing from them this season that indicates they can consistently create long drives against a good defense.
The teams are fairly evenly matched in a lot of areas, but it is the passing game where Alabama shows a big advantage. Their QB has 6 passing TDs, Alabama's has 25. That basically accounts for the offensive difference between the two teams, but it is a heck of a difference.
If you want to look for an advantage in favor of LSU, it comes as no surprise it's in the kicking game. LSU has made 91% of their field goals, Alabama has made 64%. They are averaging 44 yards a punt, Alabama is averaging 35. If they can slow Alabama down enough that they're forced to kick the ball a lot, then LSU has a chance. But... there's just a world of difference between the two quarterbacks. Burrows has a rating of 118 and Tua has a rating of 238. To say he's twice as good isn't an exaggeration.
If you want to look for an advantage in favor of LSU, it comes as no surprise it's in the kicking game. LSU has made 91% of their field goals, Alabama has made 64%. They are averaging 44 yards a punt, Alabama is averaging 35. If they can slow Alabama down enough that they're forced to kick the ball a lot, then LSU has a chance. But... there's just a world of difference between the two quarterbacks. Burrows has a rating of 118 and Tua has a rating of 238. To say he's twice as good isn't an exaggeration.
IMO, Bama is better on both LOS, has a much better QB, much better WRs, better TEs and RBs. They are likely similar at LB and the secondary with possibly a slight edge to LSU. LSU's corners are better but Bama's safeties are better as a tandem, though Delpit is essentially as good as Thompson.
Another way of putting it: Bama's OL is better than LSU's DL and LSU can't cover all of Bama's receiving options, thus Bama should be able to run and throw. Bama's DL is better than LSU's OL and LSU's skill players are just OK, thus LSU should have trouble running and throwing. LSU's kickers are better but without the one bad game Bulovas would be 8-10 not 8-12 and the new punter had two 41 yard punts with no return. The latter should be more indicative of Bama's punting now, not the 34 yd avg of the previous punter.
Another way of putting it: Bama's OL is better than LSU's DL and LSU can't cover all of Bama's receiving options, thus Bama should be able to run and throw. Bama's DL is better than LSU's OL and LSU's skill players are just OK, thus LSU should have trouble running and throwing. LSU's kickers are better but without the one bad game Bulovas would be 8-10 not 8-12 and the new punter had two 41 yard punts with no return. The latter should be more indicative of Bama's punting now, not the 34 yd avg of the previous punter.
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I look for LSU to hit our WR's off the line and put pressure on Tua in passing situations. I think we use our RB's to the max and LSU to play a whole lot of Man but the key will probably be that LSU has never played a team with the quality and number of talented WR's and RB's. jmo
The same lsu team that lost to florida with a 1st year coach and not a ton of talent. It shouldnt even be a close game baring tua injury. Of course now jalen will be somewhat limited so a tua injury may be catastrophic. I think only bounty gate type of results could save the corndogs at this juncture
His high throws have primarily been on the sideline routes or in the corners of the end zone. Safe places to be high
If you try to jam all three at the line you will get killed as their speed and footwork (esp Jeudy and Waddle) will put them 5 yards ahead of the DB within seconds. Tua would shred them.
Idk why Tua has been off the last 2 games (probably his knee) but if you go back and watch the last drive of the 1st half and then his one drive in the 2nd half because he was deadly accurate. He went 9/10 and had 2 TDs. His only incompletion was the 1st of those 10 throws and was on target just well defended.
Tua has ice water in his veins...he's not going to get gun shy after throwing an INT or multiple INTs...but Saban's head might explode on the sideline.
To win, LSU needs our help.
Blown coverages: possible, but less likely at this stage of the season.
Fumbles: possible, but not a problem so far this year.
INTs — also possible, but not a problem so far.
Kicking problems — this is where I worry. FGs could charitably be called spotty. Punting has been horrendous, though Bernier stanched the bleeding last week.
Still, he seems to be a bit slow, and I expect the Tigahs to sell out for a block at every opportunity. It’s also where I think our vulnerability is.
I am concerned about blocked punts.
Still, it comes back to something we haven’t done all year, and don’t have a history of doing: helping the other team.
I’m wary of the punting, but otherwise have no reason not to be confident.
Blown coverages: possible, but less likely at this stage of the season.
Fumbles: possible, but not a problem so far this year.
INTs — also possible, but not a problem so far.
Kicking problems — this is where I worry. FGs could charitably be called spotty. Punting has been horrendous, though Bernier stanched the bleeding last week.
Still, he seems to be a bit slow, and I expect the Tigahs to sell out for a block at every opportunity. It’s also where I think our vulnerability is.
I am concerned about blocked punts.
Still, it comes back to something we haven’t done all year, and don’t have a history of doing: helping the other team.
I’m wary of the punting, but otherwise have no reason not to be confident.
I said in a previous post that he appeared to be very slow in getting off his kicks. I predict a blocked punt at some point in this game. Bulovas is just okay, I would not want to depend on him in regulation or OT for a win.
This is the only thing about LSU's offense that somewhat "worries" me. They have a very physical offensive line and they absolutely man handled UGA's defensive front all game long and I'm not going to chalk that up to "UGA's DL is overrated". They may not be as dominant as they were last year but they are definitely still stout. So the fact that LSU's OL road grated them gives me a bit of concern that if LSU can get anywhere near the same type push against us as they did against UGA. It doesn't bode well for us. Burrow isn't going to win a Heisman or be on any type award list. But the guy seemingly makes key first down plays when they need them that doesn't jump out in the box score.
I think we need to use our offense to pressure every aspect of their defense early on. Even if we throw a pick. Do not let up and become conservative offensively. Because, IMO, that plays right into what they want to do. They WANT to keep the scoring low.
I just want to keep our FG kicker out of the equation for having to win it.
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I can see Alabama pulling away from LSU, but I don't think it'll happen until the second half. Orgeron's locker room motivations + #FreeDevinWhite + evening kickoff is going to have LSU's hair on fire, and their play will reflect that. I feel like this is exactly the type of game where Alabama needs to manage the emotional play first before they're able to fully put their stamp on LSU.
I do hope that the running game is ready to step up when the passing game struggles. It's going to happen, and while I'm not saying the running game is poor this year, they're just an unknown in this potential environment. Alabama hasn't had to lean on them this year thus far like previous seasons, and that's not entirely a bad thing.
I do think the refereeing will be key to keeping the game close. It will not surprise me if Alabama starts its usual hot start, the flags will start coming in to balance out the game, especially with the SEC office having been embarrassed by LSU fans for two weeks. Much like the last few games, I see Alabama pulling away in the second half.
I do hope that the running game is ready to step up when the passing game struggles. It's going to happen, and while I'm not saying the running game is poor this year, they're just an unknown in this potential environment. Alabama hasn't had to lean on them this year thus far like previous seasons, and that's not entirely a bad thing.
I do think the refereeing will be key to keeping the game close. It will not surprise me if Alabama starts its usual hot start, the flags will start coming in to balance out the game, especially with the SEC office having been embarrassed by LSU fans for two weeks. Much like the last few games, I see Alabama pulling away in the second half.
But on the flipside MSU absolutely dominated their offensive line until their star lineman went down.
LSU totals:
Miami - 156 (3.8 ypc)
Southeastern Louisiana - 184 (5.3 ypc)
Auburn - 121 (2.9 ypc)
La Tech - 218 (4.5 ypc)
Ole Miss - 281 (5.6 ypc)
Florida - 180 (4.4 ypc)
Georgia - 275 (5.4 ypc)
Mississippi State - 110 (2.5 ypc)
Season average for defenses:
Miami - 106 rushing yards per game (#12)
Southeastern Louisiana - 188 rushing yards per game (#80 FCS)
Auburn - 125 rushing yards per game (#29)
La Tech - 146 rushing yards per game (#51)
Ole Miss - 218 rushing yards per game (#113)
Florida - 163 rushing yards per game (#73)
Georgia - 136 rushing yards per game (#40)
Mississippi State - 115 rushing yards per game (#20)
Alabama rush defense - 118 yards per game (#23)
I will say that 50 of those yds against Georgia came on a scramble by Burrow late. I think the ypc drops drastically if you take that away from the total.
Yeah, I know it still counts. I’m not convinced Georgia’s rush defense is that good (#40). A&M’s is currently #4.
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