Did 2011 or 2015 rip the heart out of the LSU program?

rgw

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I can buy the argument that the 21-0 victory in 2012 BCSCG was the moment everything changed in the series. Heck, it is the literal (literally) start of the 8 game streak. It thwarted LSU wrapping up possibly the most accomplished BCS champion resume for Les Miles' 2nd title and instead secured Alabama's 2nd title (3rd overall) by Saban's fifth year in Tuscaloosa. I'm going to pull a bit of a Malcolm Gladwell of football prognostication and make an off-beat but reasoned case for the November 2015 game.

In 2015 LSU was in the midst of a magical season with a dominant tailback, Leonard Fournette, that covered down on some of the plodding aspects of Miles' increasingly conservative offensive approach. Fournette turned the off-tackle toss into an explosive play. Fournette made teams commit so much to stopping him that an uncomplex passing attack became an explosive one. The defense was not shutting folks down but they were scoring a lot of points and nobody was concerned. This all came to a crashing halt on a misty cold November night in Tuscaloosa.

Leonard Fournette was stymied after seemingly being an unstoppable force all season. Sure, there were a few times where our corners made gutsy tackles when isolated on Fournette. Those were big but mostly rare moments where a guy was challenged to man up and they got the job done with form tackling. More often, Fournette had three crimson jerseys - if not more - around him before getting out of the backfield and even Fournette can't do much about that scenario. Their OL was getting whooped. Conversely, a similar type of back on Bama's sideline was routinely getting clean alleys allowing him to get into his stride and make huge gains.

In that 4 hour moment the entire tenor of the competition changed. Alabama was clearly physically superior to LSU. The rivalry in the Saban era from 2008 through 2014 had been one where LSU was often the most physical team we'd play all season. They'd be the team capable of producing consistent effective runs against our defense. They'd be the team that would force Alabama to pass to win a game. Two wins in this streak involved Alabama pulling out a rabbit's foot and four-leaf clover with late drives to repel LSU who had arguably outplayed Alabama for most of the game. On November 7, 2015 Alabama physically dominated LSU on both sides of the ball. The score got prettied up late to disguise what had really happened on the field.

2016 Alabama's lacking passing attack might have hidden this shift for some. The 10-0 win would lead some to think back to the 9-6 game but the difference here is that LSU could've played 120 minutes that night and still not have scored. 2017 saw a slightly improved passing attack from Alabama which allowed for the running attack to sustain some success against a weaker DL than the "norm" for LSU. Last night with LSU unable to focus on the run game, Alabama nearly had two 100 yard rushers. All three of these games involved Alabama's DL salting the earth over LSU.

How did this happen? My theory is that their recruiting was slowly but surely damaged by the discontent from their fanbase post-BCSCG rematch. It became a real vocal problem in 2014 around their local beat. The message board grumbles became a talking point for the local commentators. The 3 game losing streak that started in Tuscaloosa ought to have resulted in Miles' resignation or termination. The mood around the program was beyond recovery and I think the lacking level of talent in several positional groups today goes back to 2014-2015.

So maybe 2015 was the culmination of the stinging blow dealt in the 2011 season? Perhaps they're tied together and this isn't really an either/or deal?
 

81usaf92

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I think the worst losses for them were 2012 (in Baton Rouge) and 2014. I really think deep down they felt the 2015 team was a façade that was going to be exposed either against Bama or Ole Miss. the 2012 NCG they were confident, but I think their realistic fans were more shocked that they were dominated than they lost.
 

B1GTide

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2011 started to turn the fans against Miles. It started before the game was over because Miles did not change QBs in the game. So, IMO, that is where it started - not because of the loss, but because the fans lost faith.

Every loss hurts, but nothing hurts worse than a loss in a championship game.
 

81usaf92

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2011 started to turn the fans against Miles. It started before the game was over because Miles did not change QBs in the game. So, IMO, that is where it started - not because of the loss, but because the fans lost faith.

Every loss hurts, but nothing hurts worse than a loss in a championship game.
Actually they were already turning against Miles by 2007 because he would find a way to lose games. Rumor has it, had he not lucked into a NCG in 2007 then he was gone then. 2014-2015 were when they totally were done with him
 

B1GTide

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Actually they were already turning against Miles by 2007 because he would find a way to lose games. Rumor has it, had he not lucked into a NCG in 2007 then he was gone then. 2014-2015 were when they totally were done with him
Then the fans at LSU are as stupid as they looked the last two weeks with the conspiracy stuff.
 

rgw

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I think this is ultimately it. The LSU fanbase harangued Les Miles his entire tenure there for the crime of not being Nick Saban. But I'll tell you, they were closer to Bama with him than with Coach O. They basically traded down from a Lexus to a Toyota because they really wanted a Mercedes.
 

81usaf92

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Then the fans at LSU are as stupid as they looked the last two weeks with the conspiracy stuff.
Well also take into account LSU was wanting to win fast with Saban's replacement, especially when Saban came back because they knew they were in trouble. The problem with fanbases screaming for heads to roll is that it makes your current coach take the "Screw you too" approach. Les basically said " I'm keeping Cam Cameron because I'm going to prove yall negative nancys wrong". It really made LSU worse.
 

81usaf92

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But if I would pinpoint one exact game then it would be the 2014 game vs us. They should've won and there is no sane explanation of why we got out of there with a W. I think all other losses to us had a rational explanation.
 

TideEngineer08

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It was 2011. They shouldn’t have beaten us in Tuscaloosa that year. We were better in every aspect except the score and the critical referee calls. They knew that. Knew they had gotten away with highway robbery seemingly Scott free and were on their way to a dream season. The Championship game might as well have been forfeited. They lost as soon as the rematch was announced.

The only thing they’ve had since then is the Tiger Stadium atmosphere which always made the games down there close. That was destroyed last night.
 

78Alum

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It was 2011. They shouldn’t have beaten us in Tuscaloosa that year. We were better in every aspect except the score and the critical referee calls. They knew that. Knew they had gotten away with highway robbery seemingly Scott free and were on their way to a dream season. The Championship game might as well have been forfeited. They lost as soon as the rematch was announced.

The only thing they’ve had since then is the Tiger Stadium atmosphere which always made the games down there close. That was destroyed last night.
Yes...this^^^
 

BamaMan09

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Alabama was fortunate to get out of Red Stick with wins in 2012 and 2014. 2016 was an absolute dog fight. 2018 was a straight up beat down. Miles is better than Orgeron and it's no even close. Orgeron will last two more seasons and then get fired. Maybe not that long. He's not qualified to run a major program like that. Great recruiter, defensive line coach and motivator but not a CEO. He's a stark raving lunatic.
 

jashleyren2

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I definitely think it was that 2012 NCG. That was a humiliating loss. It wasn't just the score, but the way they were handled by Alabama. It was the changing of the guard, permanently. LSU has not even sniffed the BCS or the CFP since then. Until that point, including the overtime win in 2009 for Bama, the loss in 2010, the regular season loss in 2011, they were still the beast of the West. Auburn shook things up in 2010, but no one really seriously believed Auburn won that title from the strength of that overall team, or because of the quality of the program. It was Cam Newton. And, back into mediocrity they went, until the freak plays of 2013 that got them back into the NCG. LSU hasn't even had the benefit of being in a spot where a freak play would help. They have shown what talent level they truly have, and it's top notch. But they cannot tame the beast that is Alabama.

I'll also throw out a hypothetical. If LSU were to beat a loaded Alabama team in 2019, in Tuscaloosa, it still wouldn't be a changing of the guard, provided Nick Saban is still the coach at Alabama. That simple. They are Number 2 in the division. There will be other teams finish 2 instead of them, until Saban retires, but they are still 2nd best. Recruiting, talent base, fan support, past success.

Auburn is firmly planted at 3rd. They are better than the Mississippi programs, provided they don't keep switching coaches. Arkansas can be 4th, but the Mississippi programs are dragging up the bottom of the division, and not just because of wins and losses.
 

BamaMan09

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I definitely think it was that 2012 NCG. That was a humiliating loss. It wasn't just the score, but the way they were handled by Alabama. It was the changing of the guard, permanently. LSU has not even sniffed the BCS or the CFP since then. Until that point, including the overtime win in 2009 for Bama, the loss in 2010, the regular season loss in 2011, they were still the beast of the West. Auburn shook things up in 2010, but no one really seriously believed Auburn won that title from the strength of that overall team, or because of the quality of the program. It was Cam Newton. And, back into mediocrity they went, until the freak plays of 2013 that got them back into the NCG. LSU hasn't even had the benefit of being in a spot where a freak play would help. They have shown what talent level they truly have, and it's top notch. But they cannot tame the beast that is Alabama.

I'll also throw out a hypothetical. If LSU were to beat a loaded Alabama team in 2019, in Tuscaloosa, it still wouldn't be a changing of the guard, provided Nick Saban is still the coach at Alabama. That simple. They are Number 2 in the division. There will be other teams finish 2 instead of them, until Saban retires, but they are still 2nd best. Recruiting, talent base, fan support, past success.

Auburn is firmly planted at 3rd. They are better than the Mississippi programs, provided they don't keep switching coaches. Arkansas can be 4th, but the Mississippi programs are dragging up the bottom of the division, and not just because of wins and losses.
I think Texas A&M will be battling with Auburn very soon. They should have beaten them on Saturday and Fisher is recruiting lights out. A&M has thrown a lot of money at their program and they have a great recruiting base to draw from.
 
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Padreruf

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A&M is rising and AU is fading...note their desire to change the SEC schedule. They play a patsy game between UGA and UA and it's still too tough? Come on...put on your big boy pants.

The 2011 Championship game was major in my mind...but 2015 put a dagger in their heart. This year was a reality check...except for one poor, demented lineman.
 

RT27

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No one game ripped out their heart, it has been a 8 yr losing streak that has killed them. They have not beaten us in 8 games, that kills anyones mojo. Like UT it is the cumulative effect of destroying any hope of competing. That kind of dominance kills programs and coaching careers.
 

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