CFN: Auburn vs. Alabama Fearless Prediction, Game Preview
- Thread starter crimsonaudio
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I think both sides of the ball for Alabama are going to go off in this game. I'm thinking we're gonna see an epic beat down,
I don't think anyone should have decided that yet. The biggest games of the season are still to be played.
He also said that if Tua goes off this weekend (which he expects he will) and WVU beats OU (which he expects they will) that's he'll likely flip. But he has a good point - Bama would likely be 11-0 if Hurts was the starter - little chance OU would be a one-loss team without Murray.
I am not sure we would be 11-0 with hurts all year. Tua has taken us to another level and without that deep ball threat not sure we win all 11. This is a totally different offense with Tua playing.
Agreed, but no one has been close to Bama this season. I can't think of a single game that if Hurts had started (especially considering how Hurts has progressed since last year) that Bama still won't have won, albeit with a smaller margin of victory.
It's at least debatable.
That said, no one thinks that OU is a one-loss team if Murray isn't QB...
Jalen would have missed the LSU and MSU games - 2 losses with Mac Jones at QB.
I'll counter that by saying OU would be undefeated with Tua, and he would have even better numbers than Murray does now.
Although I'm saying that without factoring in the horrid display the OU defense routinely trots out there.
My point is that it is not a given that Alabama is undefeated without Tua. Jalen got hurt in much more limited play. The idea that Alabama would be undefeated without Tua is absurd. Alabama might have lost many other games this year. QB is too important a position in today's football to simply make that assumption.
And my point is Bama was undefeated through 11 games with Hurts last year, and he's better this year. And arguably, most of the same teams we've faced are worse.
Bama is definitely better with Tua, but I have little doubt Bama would still be undefeated vs this year's schedule with Hurts as the starter. I'm not talking about the what-ifs of injuries, etc - those things happen - I'm simply saying that Murray is a more important factor in OU being 10-1 than Tua is in Bama being 11-0.
To go deeper into my thought process - without Tua your entire team would look different this year. Assuming he was just lost for the season to injury, your entire team plays harder with Tua at QB, so your effort level would have diminished without him. Every single player believes in Tua. Every single player knows that Alabama loses to GA last year without him. And if he was lost before the season started, how much of this season's greatness ever materializes? IMO, none of it. IMO, Alabama could as easily be a 3 loss team as an undefeated team without Tua this year.
You cannot discount how the players felt last year. Those feelings would have instantly been realized again when Tua was lost to the team. Receivers would not be happy and your offense would be run oriented rather than pass oriented. Your defense would have been under enormous pressure from day 1, and that would have been a problem given the turnover and lack of experience.
Would you still be undefeated? Maybe, but I would not bet on it. In fact, I would bet heavily against it.
ETA - now if you are saying that the Sooners might have lost even more games without Murray that Alabama without Tua, that is fair. But Tua makes Alabama into a championship team this year. Alabama is not a championship team without him. You cannot make a bigger difference than that, IMO.
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