Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

Tidewater

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The Russians deploy forces near their borders to intimidate, and sometimes (Georgia 2008 and Ukraine 2014) as a cover for an invasion. Ukraine has responded by declaring martial law for a limited time.
In Standoff With Russia, What Does Ukraine’s Martial Law Decree Mean?
This could have an impact on Ukrainian elections (now set for March 31, 2019), since elections cannot be held within 30 of a martial law being in effect.
Right now, Petro Poroshenko (incumbent) is looking to change current trends (incumbents normally lose in Ukrainian presidential elections), so opposition parties are crying "October surprise."

The Russian forces have been there for a few weeks, but I would be surprised if they invaded Ukraine. The Russian army relies heavily on conscripts and they conscript in October and April, so October draftees would not have had enough time to finish basic, get to units and learn their jobs. They won't be ready until mid to late January.
 

seebell

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The Donald needs a nice international crisis to rally the nation behind him and take our minds off of the sleaze. What would we do if Russia invaded Ukraine?
 

Tidewater

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The Donald needs a nice international crisis to rally the nation behind him and take our minds off of the sleaze. What would we do if Russia invaded Ukraine?
There's not a lot we could do. That would be almost a home game for the Rooskies, Ukraine is a long way away, not a NATO member, getting heavy stuff there would involve shipping through the Bosporus, which by the Convention of Montreux, requires Turkish approval (Erdogan has been quite chummy with Putin since Turkey shot down that Russia fighter plane).

In 2014, the Obama administration told the Ukrainians not to resist in Crimea and that the United States would not back them if they did. By the time the Ukrainians knew what was happening the Russians' "little green men" had shut off internet traffic in Crimea, seized and turned off the telephone system, secured the airfields, blocked the isthmus and surrounded the Ukrainian military bases on the peninsula. Checkmate before the Ukrainians even knew they were playing chess.
Maybe the Trump administration would take the same "avoid confrontation" approach.
Ukraine is a huge country, though, and the Russians do not have the forces needed to occupy it, or even a large portion of it.
 

Tidewater

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Bamaro

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The Donald needs a nice international crisis to rally the nation behind him and take our minds off of the sleaze. What would we do if Russia invaded Ukraine?
What does Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances with them say we will do? They gave up their nukes, we cant just stand by with our hands up our butts.
 

Tidewater

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What does Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances with them say we will do? They gave up their nukes, we cant just stand by with our hands up our butts.
Thanks for reminding us of that. Back in the 1990s, the West, and especially the United States, were very concerned about too many nukes lying about in too many former Soviet republics. (Think the film The Sum of All Evils.) The Ukrainians told us, "We live next door to the Russians and they have treated us quite shabbily in the past (e.g. the Holodomor Terror-famine that deliberately starved to death 3.5 million Ukrainians) and the fact that we now have nukes is our best protection against future Russian bad behavior." The Clinton Administration decided to convince the Ukrainians to hand the Soviet nukes that were based in Ukraine over to the Russians and, in exchange, we (the U.S.) would guarantee Ukraine's borders. Not a crazy deal, especially is we are more concerned about nukes lying about and the possibility of one getting into the hands of islamic terrorists than concerned with Russia invading her neighbors and starting WW III.
Now, fast forward the tape 20 years and Russia annexes Crimea. Oops.
 

crimsonaudio

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What does Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances with them say we will do? They gave up their nukes, we cant just stand by with our hands up our butts.
If you believe this then you've been ignoring US foreign policy since, well, just about forever. You think anyone in DC gives a flying crap about those people?
 

MattinBama

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Tidewater

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What do you think Ukraine's interest in all this is? Do you think that establishing a positive link between Russian pressure/persuasion and Trump policy would help Ukraine or hurt them? It would be bad for Trump but it would be really bad in the long term for Russia and that is what Ukraine is all about. I think Ukraine would throw Trump under the bus in a heartbeat if doing so would screw the Russians.

Poroshenko is not doing well in the most recent poll I have seen, coming in third (incumbents in Ukraine traditionally do not win re-election). He would like to change the game.
 
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Jon

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What do you think Ukraine's interest in all this is? Do you think that establishing a positive link between Russian pressure/persuasion and Trump policy would help Ukraine or hurt them? It would be bad for Trump but it would be really bad in the long term for Russia and that is what Ukraine is all about. I think Ukraine would throw Trump under the bus in a heartbeat if doing so would screw the Russians.
Ukraine is fighting for their survival and independence at a time when the President of the United States is on his knees for the country that invaded them. They'll do whatever works for weapons and hope for the best at this point
 

Tidewater

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Ukraine is fighting for their survival and independence at a time when the President of the United States is on his knees for the country that invaded them. They'll do whatever works for weapons and hope for the best at this point
Maybe, but the fact remains that Trump authorized the sale of antitank missiles to Ukraine and those missile will be used to kill Russians. If he was "on his knees" for Russia, why would he approve the sale of weapons that would directly be used to kill Russians? The Russian government vehemently disapproved of the sale.
From the article I posted:
That announcement sparked a sharp rebuke from Moscow, with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov accusing the United States of "fomenting a war."
 

MattinBama

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Maybe, but the fact remains that Trump authorized the sale of antitank missiles to Ukraine and those missile will be used to kill Russians. If he was "on his knees" for Russia, why would he approve the sale of weapons that would directly be used to kill Russians? The Russian government vehemently disapproved of the sale.
From the article I posted:
Just my opinion...

But I'm guessing that he got approval first. And if not he probably got a paddlin' from his boss later on. Or Putin is about four steps ahead and is fine with sacrificing some mercenaries to study the javelin more closely in the field and potentially capture some for reverse engineering (while also having his government play act about how upset they are).

No inside information as to that being true, just more of a gut feeling that it is possible.
 

Jon

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Maybe, but the fact remains that Trump authorized the sale of antitank missiles to Ukraine and those missile will be used to kill Russians. If he was "on his knees" for Russia, why would he approve the sale of weapons that would directly be used to kill Russians? The Russian government vehemently disapproved of the sale.
From the article I posted:
I believe that has already been answered and really by now you still don't think Trump is compromised by Russia, how much more do you need?
 

Displaced Bama Fan

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Ukraine is fighting for their survival and independence at a time when the President of the United States is on his knees for the country that invaded them. They'll do whatever works for weapons and hope for the best at this point
The Ukraine has also been trying to draw us into this conflict, one which we should have no part of. So whether or not Trump is giving Putin a blowie or not, Ukraine is a place we don't need to be...along with Iraq, Afghanistan or Syria. Let Europe step and help the Ukrainians instead of us having to go further in debt.
 

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