Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships - Page 4
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  1. #40

    Re: Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

    Oderint dum metuant - Lucius Accius

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  3. #41
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Tidewater's Avatar
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    Re: Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

    The Russians deploy forces near their borders to intimidate, and sometimes (Georgia 2008 and Ukraine 2014) as a cover for an invasion. Ukraine has responded by declaring martial law for a limited time.
    In Standoff With Russia, What Does Ukraine’s Martial Law Decree Mean?
    This could have an impact on Ukrainian elections (now set for March 31, 2019), since elections cannot be held within 30 of a martial law being in effect.
    Right now, Petro Poroshenko (incumbent) is looking to change current trends (incumbents normally lose in Ukrainian presidential elections), so opposition parties are crying "October surprise."

    The Russian forces have been there for a few weeks, but I would be surprised if they invaded Ukraine. The Russian army relies heavily on conscripts and they conscript in October and April, so October draftees would not have had enough time to finish basic, get to units and learn their jobs. They won't be ready until mid to late January.

  4. #42
    BamaNation Hall of Fame seebell's Avatar
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    Re: Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

    The Donald needs a nice international crisis to rally the nation behind him and take our minds off of the sleaze. What would we do if Russia invaded Ukraine?

  5. #43
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Tidewater's Avatar
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    Re: Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

    Quote Originally Posted by seebell View Post
    The Donald needs a nice international crisis to rally the nation behind him and take our minds off of the sleaze. What would we do if Russia invaded Ukraine?
    There's not a lot we could do. That would be almost a home game for the Rooskies, Ukraine is a long way away, not a NATO member, getting heavy stuff there would involve shipping through the Bosporus, which by the Convention of Montreux, requires Turkish approval (Erdogan has been quite chummy with Putin since Turkey shot down that Russia fighter plane).

    In 2014, the Obama administration told the Ukrainians not to resist in Crimea and that the United States would not back them if they did. By the time the Ukrainians knew what was happening the Russians' "little green men" had shut off internet traffic in Crimea, seized and turned off the telephone system, secured the airfields, blocked the isthmus and surrounded the Ukrainian military bases on the peninsula. Checkmate before the Ukrainians even knew they were playing chess.
    Maybe the Trump administration would take the same "avoid confrontation" approach.
    Ukraine is a huge country, though, and the Russians do not have the forces needed to occupy it, or even a large portion of it.

  6. #44
    BamaNation All-American CrimsonNagus's Avatar
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    Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

    Like Trump would ever do anything to his buddy Putin anyway. He’ll probably wish him luck.

  7. #45
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Tidewater's Avatar
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    Re: Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

    Quote Originally Posted by CrimsonNagus View Post
    Like Trump would ever do anything to his buddy Putin anyway. He’ll probably wish him luck.
    I hate to break the news, but the Obama Administration provides only non-lethal aid (radios and medicine) to the Ukrainians trying to free their country of Russian invaders, but the Trump administration sold them Javelin antitank missiles.

    And for the record, no, I did not vote for Trump.

  8. #46
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Bamaro's Avatar
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    Re: Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

    Quote Originally Posted by seebell View Post
    The Donald needs a nice international crisis to rally the nation behind him and take our minds off of the sleaze. What would we do if Russia invaded Ukraine?
    What does Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances with them say we will do? They gave up their nukes, we cant just stand by with our hands up our butts.

  9. #47
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Tidewater's Avatar
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    Re: Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

    Quote Originally Posted by Bamaro View Post
    What does Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances with them say we will do? They gave up their nukes, we cant just stand by with our hands up our butts.
    Thanks for reminding us of that. Back in the 1990s, the West, and especially the United States, were very concerned about too many nukes lying about in too many former Soviet republics. (Think the film The Sum of All Evils.) The Ukrainians told us, "We live next door to the Russians and they have treated us quite shabbily in the past (e.g. the Holodomor Terror-famine that deliberately starved to death 3.5 million Ukrainians) and the fact that we now have nukes is our best protection against future Russian bad behavior." The Clinton Administration decided to convince the Ukrainians to hand the Soviet nukes that were based in Ukraine over to the Russians and, in exchange, we (the U.S.) would guarantee Ukraine's borders. Not a crazy deal, especially is we are more concerned about nukes lying about and the possibility of one getting into the hands of islamic terrorists than concerned with Russia invading her neighbors and starting WW III.
    Now, fast forward the tape 20 years and Russia annexes Crimea. Oops.

  10. #48

    Re: Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

    Quote Originally Posted by Bamaro View Post
    What does Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances with them say we will do? They gave up their nukes, we cant just stand by with our hands up our butts.
    If you believe this then you've been ignoring US foreign policy since, well, just about forever. You think anyone in DC gives a flying crap about those people?
    Oderint dum metuant - Lucius Accius

  11. #49
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Bamaro's Avatar
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    Re: Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

    Quote Originally Posted by crimsonaudio View Post
    If you believe this then you've been ignoring US foreign policy since, well, just about forever. You think anyone in DC gives a flying crap about those people?
    Probably not but we should be ready to stand behind our commitments or don't make them in the first place.

  12. #50
    BamaNation Hall of Fame MattinBama's Avatar
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    Re: Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

    Quote Originally Posted by Tidewater View Post
    I hate to break the news, but the Obama Administration provides only non-lethal aid (radios and medicine) to the Ukrainians trying to free their country of Russian invaders, but the Trump administration sold them Javelin antitank missiles.

    And for the record, no, I did not vote for Trump.
    Just in case anyone was wondering why Trump did this:

    Ukraine, Seeking U.S. Missiles, Halted Cooperation With Mueller Investigation

  13. #51
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Jon's Avatar
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    Re: Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

    Quote Originally Posted by MattinBama View Post
    Just in case anyone was wondering why Trump did this:

    Ukraine, Seeking U.S. Missiles, Halted Cooperation With Mueller Investigation
    so much stuff the last 2 years I forgot about that
    "There is a rumour going around that I have found God. I think this is unlikely because I have enough difficulty finding my keys, and there is empirical evidence that they exist." - Terry Pratchett

  14. #52
    BamaNation Hall of Fame Tidewater's Avatar
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    Re: Tension escalates after Russia seizes Ukraine naval ships

    Quote Originally Posted by MattinBama View Post
    Just in case anyone was wondering why Trump did this:

    Ukraine, Seeking U.S. Missiles, Halted Cooperation With Mueller Investigation
    What do you think Ukraine's interest in all this is? Do you think that establishing a positive link between Russian pressure/persuasion and Trump policy would help Ukraine or hurt them? It would be bad for Trump but it would be really bad in the long term for Russia and that is what Ukraine is all about. I think Ukraine would throw Trump under the bus in a heartbeat if doing so would screw the Russians.

    Poroshenko is not doing well in the most recent poll I have seen, coming in third (incumbents in Ukraine traditionally do not win re-election). He would like to change the game.
    Last edited by Tidewater; December 16th, 2018 at 08:14 PM.

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