Again for those unfamiliar, these averages are in games excluding UGA or UA:
Which would yield a score of Bama 34, UGA 23.
Yes. That is based on betting and trying to keep betting on both sides of the line equal. And, to be honest, sometimes doing it my way gets some pretty close results, while other times it is a complete whiff. It is just me being a geek and playing with numbers when I have too much time on my hands.
I also have not yet reached that level of nerddom, lol. I just check out how they have scored and allowed scoring, then how they did versus each team relative to how that opponent does on average for the year. I don't really bother with this type thing when we are playing teams like La-Lafayette, or even a weaker SEC team. But Excel starts getting some work in around LSU time. I didn't really get too close this year in any of mine, but have hit some near bullseyes in past years. I think part of the issue is the fact that , with a couple of exceptions, Tua is going to score 50 no matter what defense he is playing.
If I did my averages right, I came out with UA 37-26 with UA at 444 yards and UGA at 391.
Either way, I just don't think Bama scores less than 40 and I don't think UGA scores more than 24.
Exactly and there's no question this Alabama offense is better than it was in January. QB is better, receivers are better, tight end is better, running backs are better and the line has had a big upgrade.
I am concerned with UGA running the ball against us. I think they are better at that than any team we have played this year, and even though the stats may not bear it out, it does not feel like we are as strong against the run as we have been in the past, especially when our opponents are capable of keeping us a little honest with the passing game as well. Remember, Kirby's choice to go with Chubb later in the game is likely one of the things that hurt them when Michel, their faster option, was giving us fits all night. I think we win, but I think UGA shows well in this game (and if any SEC team goes on to play UCF, I want it to be these guys).
And to add to your excellent work I have done a common opponent comparison. We have had 4 common opponents as shown below. I am not huge on this stat but I do see a trend with how we both played these opponents and it is good for us.
I came out of my seat on that play, screaming "Where's the OPI flag?" The marker for OPI is the receiver touching the defender and then extending his arm. Slayton did exactly that. I could not believe that did not get called.
Officiating has been abysmal this year. Hubert Owens is one of the worst officials in the conference. Tom Ritter was the worst though.
Honestly it was almost more like a horse collar foul. He pulled him from the back collar of Savion’s jersey.
127 of the 226 yards given up came on 2 plays. The 75 yards vs Ole Miss and the 52 yards against the barn. BTW, Defensing the long ball has always been a weak point on Kirby’s defenses as well. A problem At Alabama and at times a problem at Georgia. I know they were burned a lot last year and the few times I watched them this year they have given up big plays.
