Statistical Prediction: Alabama Versus Georgia

Power Eye

All-SEC
Aug 3, 2005
1,146
1,217
187
47
Alabama has only one more penalty on the year but 65 more yards in penalties.
I've been listening to podcasts from DawgNation and the perceived notion that Alabama is the beneficiary of biased refs has been discussed this week. I've actually always enjoyed Chip Towers' analysis (beat writer for UGA), but this week has been difficult as he keeps harping on this penalty issue. He actually stated something along the lines of "I don't think Alabama is paying-off the refs, but I do think there is an unconscious bias." The fact that he even took the time to dispel the thought that we are paying-off refs was weird to me. UGA fans genuinely believe they lost that game last year because of refs, and that they are playing not just us but the refs this Saturday as well.

From the cfbstats website, we are 60th in the nation in penalty yards/game with 53.3 and UGA is 49th with 49.6. It's just strange to me that so many SEC fanbases think we are benefiting from the refs. We are also 59th in the nation at opponent penalty yards/game with 54.9.
 

TideEngineer08

TideFans Legend
Jun 9, 2009
36,284
30,896
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Beautiful Cullman, AL
I've been listening to podcasts from DawgNation and the perceived notion that Alabama is the beneficiary of biased refs has been discussed this week. I've actually always enjoyed Chip Towers' analysis (beat writer for UGA), but this week has been difficult as he keeps harping on this penalty issue. He actually stated something along the lines of "I don't think Alabama is paying-off the refs, but I do think there is an unconscious bias." The fact that he even took the time to dispel the thought that we are paying-off refs was weird to me. UGA fans genuinely believe they lost that game last year because of refs, and that they are playing not just us but the refs this Saturday as well.

From the cfbstats website, we are 60th in the nation in penalty yards/game with 53.3 and UGA is 49th with 49.6. It's just strange to me that so many SEC fanbases think we are benefiting from the refs. We are also 59th in the nation at opponent penalty yards/game with 54.9.
They saw how Carville's harping worked. Although it did nothing for LSU on the scoreboard.
 

BamaNation

Publisher and Benevolent Dictator
Staff member
Apr 9, 1999
20,434
16,622
432
Silicon Slopes
TideFans.com
Chip Towers' analysis (beat writer for UGA), ...stated something along the lines of "I don't think Alabama is paying-off the refs, but I do think there is an unconscious bias."
Paraphrasing what somebody stated in another thread, we're living rent-free in their tiny brains. The stupidity of this statement is beyond confounding.
 

BamaMan09

All-SEC
Feb 26, 2009
1,852
0
0
I've been listening to podcasts from DawgNation and the perceived notion that Alabama is the beneficiary of biased refs has been discussed this week. I've actually always enjoyed Chip Towers' analysis (beat writer for UGA), but this week has been difficult as he keeps harping on this penalty issue. He actually stated something along the lines of "I don't think Alabama is paying-off the refs, but I do think there is an unconscious bias." The fact that he even took the time to dispel the thought that we are paying-off refs was weird to me. UGA fans genuinely believe they lost that game last year because of refs, and that they are playing not just us but the refs this Saturday as well.

From the cfbstats website, we are 60th in the nation in penalty yards/game with 53.3 and UGA is 49th with 49.6. It's just strange to me that so many SEC fanbases think we are benefiting from the refs. We are also 59th in the nation at opponent penalty yards/game with 54.9.
If that was the case then Jared Mayden would be playing in the first half this week.
 

jashleyren2

1st Team
Aug 27, 2018
755
568
117
Great work on this analysis. You must be a mathematics or statistics major in college. Really in depth. I wrote down some thoughts, really basic, and decided that the key game to compare when looking at this matchup involved NEITHER of the teams: Kentucky at Missouri.

UGA pretty much man handled UK, and they escaped against Missouri. They had to weather 3 really tight quarters to get there. UGA's Missouri game was early in the year, before the LSU turning point. The Kentucky game was also on the road, but much later in the year, and I think UGA has improved. Meanwhile, Alabama did not play Kentucky, but they did play Miss State, who was the best defense Alabama has played this season. Alabama handled State with a good amount of struggle, but most of that was in the 2nd half. Injuries at key positions played a big role in that State game as well. Moving toward my point, while UGA did not play State, Alabama did play Missouri, as did Kentucky.

Kentucky "won" that game on a controversial pass interference call that set up the winning score. I call that game a DRAW, though Missouri technically lost it. That was the best defense not named Alabama that Missouri saw, and it bottled them up. Georgia did not bottle them up. Alabama did. Alabama is, in my estimation from all of this, the best offense and best defense that UGA has played. 29 points better than LSU, in fact, who beat UGA rather handily, but also on the road. Georgia reminds me of Auburn, who both teams beat rather easily, in that they play great at home, and have mixed to poor results on the road. If this were a trip to Athens, I would actually like them in this game. And while it's true Atlanta isn't far from Athens, it's also not far from Tuscaloosa, and Alabama has a large fan contingent in that city, and a fan base that will travel in bunches, thus, this is no more a home game for UGA than it is for Alabama. A true neutral site that just happens to be under 100 miles from one of the schools, and about 200 from the other.

I said a lot, because I love this stuff, to say this: I agree. Bama by 2 td's.
 

ccc2259

All-American
Oct 29, 2010
2,571
70
72
Lower Alabama
Dang, Selma..... you out-did yourself! Here’s hoping you’re system is right again. Roll Tide!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

ccc2259

All-American
Oct 29, 2010
2,571
70
72
Lower Alabama
Dang, Selma..... you out-did yourself! Here’s hoping you’re system is right again. Roll Tide!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

selmaborntidefan

TideFans Legend
Mar 31, 2000
36,432
29,735
287
54
I think my straight up model that had us at 38-28 is pretty good.

Remember - we lost 7 points on the dropped pass that wound up an INT on the first possession.

And the model can't figure for injuries (Tua anyone?), stupid coaching decisions like trying to block the punt and getting a roughing call right before the half, or Kirby faking a punt, and turnovers.

Or dropped balls by usually sure-handed receivers.

Yep. I think pretty good.I now have to wait and see whose data is next.
 

selmaborntidefan

TideFans Legend
Mar 31, 2000
36,432
29,735
287
54
Great work on this analysis. You must be a mathematics or statistics major in college. Really in depth. I wrote down some thoughts, really basic, and decided that the key game to compare when looking at this matchup involved NEITHER of the teams: Kentucky at Missouri.

UGA pretty much man handled UK, and they escaped against Missouri. They had to weather 3 really tight quarters to get there. UGA's Missouri game was early in the year, before the LSU turning point. The Kentucky game was also on the road, but much later in the year, and I think UGA has improved. Meanwhile, Alabama did not play Kentucky, but they did play Miss State, who was the best defense Alabama has played this season. Alabama handled State with a good amount of struggle, but most of that was in the 2nd half. Injuries at key positions played a big role in that State game as well. Moving toward my point, while UGA did not play State, Alabama did play Missouri, as did Kentucky.

Kentucky "won" that game on a controversial pass interference call that set up the winning score. I call that game a DRAW, though Missouri technically lost it. That was the best defense not named Alabama that Missouri saw, and it bottled them up. Georgia did not bottle them up. Alabama did. Alabama is, in my estimation from all of this, the best offense and best defense that UGA has played. 29 points better than LSU, in fact, who beat UGA rather handily, but also on the road. Georgia reminds me of Auburn, who both teams beat rather easily, in that they play great at home, and have mixed to poor results on the road. If this were a trip to Athens, I would actually like them in this game. And while it's true Atlanta isn't far from Athens, it's also not far from Tuscaloosa, and Alabama has a large fan contingent in that city, and a fan base that will travel in bunches, thus, this is no more a home game for UGA than it is for Alabama. A true neutral site that just happens to be under 100 miles from one of the schools, and about 200 from the other.

I said a lot, because I love this stuff, to say this: I agree. Bama by 2 td's.

Actually, I was quite awful at any bath above masic, ha ha ha.
 

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