Unlikely Hypothetical -- Playoff

TideEngineer08

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Is Memphis even ranked? They would have to be mightily convincing to jump UM IMO. Seems silly to have UCF jump Michigan for a blow out win that Michigan could have also easily had if they were to play Memphis.


Full Disclosure: I have absolutely zero desire to play stupid UCF without their QB. It'd be the easiest game in the playoffs ever.
I'm just saying I do not think Michigan is a buffer against UCF. I think the committee ranks them in the moment, and does not look ahead and think about what if scenarios.

Looking at it technically, you are right, Memphis is not a ranked opponent. I just think that UCF would benefit from playing a game, where as Michigan is stuck at home playing no one. I'm not saying I know that will be enough for UCF to jump them, just that I think its possible.

I agree. The playoff match up with them would be a mauling never before seen in a championship level game.
 

81usaf92

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I'm just saying I do not think Michigan is a buffer against UCF. I think the committee ranks them in the moment, and does not look ahead and think about what if scenarios.

Looking at it technically, you are right, Memphis is not a ranked opponent. I just think that UCF would benefit from playing a game, where as Michigan is stuck at home playing no one. I'm not saying I know that will be enough for UCF to jump them, just that I think its possible.

I agree. The playoff match up with them would be a mauling never before seen in a championship level game.
Week 15 Committee history pretty much indicates Michigan is a buffer just like LSU was for the last 3 weeks. Had LSU won vs aTm UCF would be 9... had WSU won too then UCF would be 10. The committee isn’t letting UCF in at any costs.
 

BamaMoon

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I totally forgot about UCF's QB...no way they get in now.

I can't imagine it not being Michigan, under the current OP scenario.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Anyone trying to find consistency of logic from the CFB playoff committee will have about as much luck as finding an honest politician.
 

TideEngineer08

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Week 15 Committee history pretty much indicates Michigan is a buffer just like LSU was for the last 3 weeks. Had LSU won vs aTm UCF would be 9... had WSU won too then UCF would be 10. The committee isn’t letting UCF in at any costs.
I mean, I just don't see it that way. Unless they've come out and said they rank by those terms, I don't think they do. But I certainly am not campaigning for UCF to get in. I don't think they deserve to mentioned in the same breath as any of the rest of the top 10.

In 2014 I watched TCU, ranked #3 going into the final weekend, win their game 55-3, and still drop out of the top 4. That told me the rankings were a snapshot of what you had done up until that point and nothing more. But, I'll admit I may not be considering all the angles.
 

UntouchableCrew

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Week 15 Committee history pretty much indicates Michigan is a buffer just like LSU was for the last 3 weeks. Had LSU won vs aTm UCF would be 9... had WSU won too then UCF would be 10. The committee isn’t letting UCF in at any costs.
I'm not sure I agree. I think letting UCF in is the last thing the committee wants but under this "chaos" scenario I think it could happen. It would honestly be the least controversial move. Putting UGA, OU, tOSU or Michigan in would all seem ridiculous for various reasons.

And as far as marketability I actually think the "one year in the making David vs. Goliath" of Alabama vs UCF would be an intriguing sell... Until we were up 42-0 at halftime anyway.
 

RedWave

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Is Memphis even ranked? They would have to be mightily convincing to jump UM IMO. Seems silly to have UCF jump Michigan for a blow out win that Michigan could have also easily had if they were to play Memphis.


Full Disclosure: I have absolutely zero desire to play stupid UCF without their QB. It'd be the easiest game in the playoffs ever.
Not only that, but after we beat their eyes out in that scenario, all we would hear from UCF fans is "we could have beaten you if our QB hadn't gotten hurt." I would have loved to destroy them with Milton playing, though. Sure hope that kid recovers from that injury.
 

RedWave

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No, it's completely different.

Florida State, Ohio State, and Baylor all won games and clinched conference championships.

UGA lost in this scenario. You can't have a team at 11-1 behind a 12-0 team one week then move them ahead at 11-2 after losing.
Mmmm. If my memory serves me correctly, both Baylor and TCU had no conference championship game and split their conference title. Both were left out of the playoff. Oregon was the other team not mentioned that got in that year.
 

UntouchableCrew

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Mmmm. If my memory serves me correctly, both Baylor and TCU had no conference championship game and split their conference title. Both were left out of the playoff. Oregon was the other team not mentioned that got in that year.
We were talking about he teams that "jumped" TCU when they dropped from 3 to 6. Oregon was already ranked #2.

Baylor jumped TCU because once they "split" the Big 12 title the committee took the head to head victory into account (in other words, the committee treated Baylor like the real conference champ because they had the tiebreaker.)
 

jashleyren2

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ND is in at #3. Whether we like it or not, they are in.

I think the scenario of us having to play UGA again in a 1 vs. 4 matchup would be the worse scenario for us. They are most like us other than Clemson. But, Georgia might still be the best team, even with two losses in this scenario.

Of course, this is the scenario that MIGHT allow UCF to slide in, but I doubt it.
Agree. This thing is all but settled. The only controversy would be brought on by VERY unlikely upsets, such as Clemson losing, or Alabama losing. And Alabama losing is everyone hoping to be #4's worst nightmare, because the committee ought to still put Alabama in at #4. Ohio State and Oklahoma and UCF would lose their freaking minds, assuming they all win too. A Clemson loss might be more spectacular in it's end result because they are #2 right now, and that schedule they played isn't looking all that impressive. Consider this: the other division they play in the ACC title game had it's winner at 7-5. Has a 7-5 team ever made it to the conference title game for the SEC? No way.

Then we hear them whining about the SEC's cupcake OOC schedule....It never ends...
 

RedWave

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We were talking about he teams that "jumped" TCU when they dropped from 3 to 6. Oregon was already ranked #2.

Baylor jumped TCU because once they "split" the Big 12 title the committee took the head to head victory into account (in other words, the committee treated Baylor like the real conference champ because they had the tiebreaker.)
Gotcha! My mistake. I didn't consider them being jumped because both got left out. But you are right. They did move Baylor ahead though it did not really matter.
 

81usaf92

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I'm not sure I agree. I think letting UCF in is the last thing the committee wants but under this "chaos" scenario I think it could happen. It would honestly be the least controversial move. Putting UGA, OU, tOSU or Michigan in would all seem ridiculous for various reasons.

And as far as marketability I actually think the "one year in the making David vs. Goliath" of Alabama vs UCF would be an intriguing sell... Until we were up 42-0 at halftime anyway.
Well I guess we are going to disagree on it, but a common misconception about the playoffs is that the idea came from Delaney over the 2011 NCG. It actually started in 2004 by Slive once Auburn was left out and Utah got dangerously close to playing in the NCG. The reason we have a committee is to ensure the interests of the P5 due to the 2004, 08,09, and 10 seasons.
 

UntouchableCrew

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Well I guess we are going to disagree on it, but a common misconception about the playoffs is that the idea came from Delaney over the 2011 NCG. It actually started in 2004 by Slive once Auburn was left out and Utah got dangerously close to playing in the NCG. The reason we have a committee is to ensure the interests of the P5 due to the 2004, 08,09, and 10 seasons.
The original idea may have had an earlier genesis but the 2011 BCS Rematch is 100% why three short years later we had a playoff. There's no question about that.

Similarly, if UGA beats us and we make the playoff anyway (thus having three of the five power five conferences left out) we're gonna have an 8 team playoff in three short years too.
 

81usaf92

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The original idea may have had an earlier genesis but the 2011 BCS Rematch is 100% why three short years later we had a playoff. There's no question about that.

Similarly, if UGA beats us and we make the playoff anyway (thus having three of the five power five conferences left out) we're gonna have an 8 team playoff in three short years too.
But look at where these G5 teams are being ranked compared to where they were in the BCS. We were literally a second away from playing TCU for the NCG in 09 because of the BCS.

Also consider Mike Slive had some real sayso in the formation of the playoffs. It’s interesting that a G5 hasn’t been a sniff away in the 5 years it’s been here.
 

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