While you are 100% correct as a whole, at Bama there's a great process for helping the student/athlete make that decision. And while not fool proof, it's pretty solid.
So I’ve seen reports that there were players from the SEC numbered in the teens as first rounders. Problem is, if you think about it, there is no way this is true. There are over a hundred FBS schools and I don’t know how many FCS schools. There are 32 first round picks. There’s always some random guy you’ve never heard of that’s drafted early from some two-bit school you know nothing about on the FCS level. The numbers just don’t work out.
Some of these guys hear “first round” and are ready to jump regardless of what the truth is, because SOMEONE said they were first round material. You can probably find through multiple sources that we have 8-10 “first rounders” on the team in Seniors and draft eligible Juniors. That’s almost a third of the round. Anybody with one eye and half sense knows this can’t happen. So someone slips down the board and slips again and again. While the player is sitting there realizing they may have messed up coming out early and have let themselves and their college teammates down. Look at how many draft eligible Juniors have come out and ended up not drafted at all, and they can’t redo their decision and go back to school and work hard to get drafted. Seems like it was quite a large number last year.
Some of these guys really need to think hard as to what one more year might do for them with the support staff in place at UA vs rolling the dice and hoping for an early first round pick.