Why defense should matter in the Heisman race

UAinAthens · Dec 5, 2018

Thanks to an injury and a hard push by the talking heads, it looks like the Heisman is likely to go off the rails. One of the things that bothers me is the constant comparison of numbers without accounting for the opponent, and even the comment that Murray is more impressive BECAUSE OU doesn't play defense. The numbers show, almost NO ONE in the Big 12(-2) plays defense.

It made me curious, so I looked it up:

https://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/22

Using the NCAA numbers, OK played zero top 10 defenses this year, only 2 in the top 30 (one of which was Army) and only one more in the top 50. 12 games and only 3 opponents that apparently tried to field a defense. Their loss, to Texas, who had the 68 ranked defense.

On contrast, Alabama played 8 out of 12 games against top 50 defenses, 3 of which were top 30 ( one of which was UGA at 13), and 1 top ten defense.

Obviously Murray's numbers are good, but in reality 75% of the time he might as well have been going against air.

More significantly, 3 of Alabama's last 4 meaningful games were against 3 best defenses they faced (MSU - 3, LSU- 29, and UGA - 13). The fourth was AU, a rivalry game, and still a top 50 defense (45)

Meanwhile during Murray's sprint into consideration, his last 4 games were against (OKST - 99, KU - 80, WVU - 74, and Tex - 68). You would have expected him to have better numbers.

OU average opponent defensive rank is just above 70. Meanwhile, UA opponents rank an average of just above 54. Both are biased by some bad defenses, but in this case, UA much more so than OU. UA had Ole Miss and Lousiville, which if removed dropped our average to ~39. OU had TTU and UCLA, but removing those only drops their average to ~63.

The point of all of this is to point out that not only did Tua have his entire year against a consistently better set of defenses than Murray, but the so called "closing the gap" can be directly traced to the fact that Tua faced his hardest challenges at the end of the season, while Murray saw no appreciable difference at the end. (notable by the average of the last 4 games being statistically the same, or worse, as the rest of the season)

I doubt that anyone that reads this votes for the Heisman, and I suspect I'm preaching to the choir, but I wish someone in a pundit chair would notice this information.

cbi1972 · Dec 5, 2018

UAinAthens said:
OU average opponent defensive rank is just above 70. Meanwhile, UA opponents rank an average of just above 54.

Criticism of offensive statistics in light of pitiful defense is warranted, but you have to be careful.

Taking the mean of ordinal numbers produces results that cannot be usefully compared.

Playing teams ranked #1 and #100 would not be expected to produce the same results as playing teams ranked #50 and #51.

Superdad · Dec 5, 2018

It matters to me, but I don't count. I think the problem is that Fox and ESPN start yapping about who they think should win it late in the year, so anybody else in the running has an uphill climb. They did it with the Stanford players the years Ingram and Henry won it, they did it with Griffin and Matthieu the year Richardson should have won it and they've done it again this year. Without all of their cheerleading for Murray, Tua would still be the run away favorite to win. In my opinion.

KrAzY3 · Dec 5, 2018

cbi1972 said:
Criticism of offensive statistics in light of pitiful defense is warranted, but you have to be careful.

He didn't even bring into play the fact that Oklahoma's offensive system is biased towards big quarterback numbers.

Murray is supposedly having this amazing season right? Yet, it's only 6th all time in passing yards and TDs at Oklahoma. Basically, it's what you'd expect from a good Oklahoma quarterback under this system. Meanwhile Tua, while playing a lot less than others have, is breaking Alabama records (and historically Alabama has had far better quarterbacks than Oklahoma).

RedWave · Dec 5, 2018

cbi1972 said:
Criticism of offensive statistics in light of pitiful defense is warranted, but you have to be careful.

Taking the mean of ordinal numbers produces results that cannot be usefully compared.

Playing teams ranked #1 and #100 would not be expected to produce the same results as playing teams ranked #50 and #51.

Further, it is difficult to compare the quality of two teams' defense when they play against completely different offenses as well. I agree the Big 12 defenses rank really poorly nationally and give up a lot of points compared to who Alabama has played all year. But can we automatically assume that Miss St, for example, would still be ranked #3 if they were playing against a full slate of Big 12 teams? I do not think they would fare as well. I do buy in that the defenses we faced are tougher, but I am not fully convinced that at least part of the lower ranking of the Big 12 defenses isn't caused somewhat by the Big 12 offenses they face.

UAinAthens · Dec 5, 2018

cbi1972 said:
Criticism of offensive statistics in light of pitiful defense is warranted, but you have to be careful.

Taking the mean of ordinal numbers produces results that cannot be usefully compared.

Playing teams ranked #1 and #100 would not be expected to produce the same results as playing teams ranked #50 and #51.

I agree I'm only scratching the surface of the math. But differences this big are obvious. The overall rankings are suspect as well, although taken as a whole the errors can be reduced. For example, the best defense OU supposedly played was Army at 11th. But I don't really believe that Army has a top 20 defense, they don't have the athletes. They play keep away with their offense, and they play a weaker schedule for the most part. I also believe that LSU and AU defenses are better than their rank, again, playing SEC foes as opposed to other.

But I think we are in agreement, Murray's numbers are inflated compared to Tua's based on the defenses he got to play (or not play against).

81usaf92 · Dec 5, 2018

To play devil’s advocate. If the heisman is truly the MVP award and Murray and Tua are the two front runners, you have to ask “ could Austin Kendall or Jalen Hurts got their teams where they are right now?” For Jalen I say yes, but Austin Kendall I say there would be atleast 4 losses.

Point is while Tua is very important to Alabama’s success, I think KM is even more important to his. I think many here are still raw about how AJ was treated by scouts and non southerner media, and finally wants people to start to recognize our QBs as more than what they do. I get it, but Tua just had a bad game at the wrong time and was in competition with a ridiculously talented QB that puts up a lot of points on a NC contender team.

Kyler and Tua both deserve the heisman, but I think Kyler is going to win it. Which I’m perfectly fine with.

KrAzY3 · Dec 5, 2018

81usaf92 said:
For Jalen I say yes, but Austin Kendall I say there would be atleast 4 losses.

Where would Oklahoma be without Josh Heupel? Where would Oklahoma be without Jason White? Where would Oklahoma be without Sam Bradford? Where would Oklahoma be without Baker Mayfield? Where would Oklahoma be without Kyler Murray?

At some point it gets old because there is clearly more than one of those guys, and they still keep sending them to New York.

81usaf92 · Dec 5, 2018

KrAzY3 said:
Where would Oklahoma be without Josh Heupel? Where would Oklahoma be without Jason White? Where would Oklahoma be without Sam Bradford? Where would Oklahoma be without Baker Mayfield? Where would Oklahoma be without Kyler Murray?

At some point it gets old because there is clearly more than one of those guys, and they still keep sending them to New York.

Well again year by year basis. Tell me who SHOULD have won those 3 races. I think I’ve explained that the heisman is a year by year award not an overall career award. Aside from Sam Bradford vs Tim Tebow (3rd place), no one has made anywhere of a strong argument that Baker or White didn’t deserve it the years they won it.

FWIW the 1st two had great defenses from what I recall, but only Larry Fitzgerald challenged White who was in the big east.

PA Tide Fan · Dec 5, 2018

I wish Heisman candidates were judged by voters the same way teams are judged by the CFP Committee. Here's my example:

Question: Why was UCF not chosen a Top 4 team?
Answer: The committee felt they didn't face the same level of competition as the Top 4 they chose.

Now if that logic was used to pick the Heisman winner the question would be:

Why should Murray NOT win the award?
Answer: Because he didn't face the same level of defense as Tua.

81usaf92 · Dec 5, 2018

PA Tide Fan said:
I wish Heisman candidates were judged by voters the same way teams are judged by the CFP Committee. Here's my example:

Question: Why was UCF not chosen a Top 4 team?
Answer: The committee felt they didn't face the same level of competition as the Top 4 they chose.

Now if that logic was used to pick the Heisman winner the question would be:

Why should Murray NOT win the award?
Answer: Because he didn't face the same level of defense as Tua.

The award has always been a media award and that’s not changing especially with the media shut out of the CFP.

81usaf92 · Dec 5, 2018

FWIW I think Tua will win the 1st place votes but will lose it by the 2nd place votes. I think his only avenue of winning is not to be 4th in the mid Atlantic votes and get the lion share of the former heisman votes.

RTR91 · Dec 5, 2018

81usaf92 said:
FWIW I think Tua will win the 1st place votes but will lose it by the 2nd place votes. I think his only avenue of winning is not to be 4th in the mid Atlantic votes and get the lion share of the former heisman votes.

This would require enough voters have him behind Kyler AND Haskins. I can't see that happening.

81usaf92 · Dec 5, 2018

RTR91 said:
This would require enough voters have him behind Kyler AND Haskins. I can't see that happening.

Mid Atlantic could have Grier higher. Unlikely but possible

KrAzY3 · Dec 5, 2018

81usaf92 said:
Well again year by year basis. Tell me who SHOULD have won those 3 races. I think I’ve explained that the heisman is a year by year award not an overall career award. Aside from Sam Bradford vs Tim Tebow (3rd place), no one has made anywhere of a strong argument that Baker or White didn’t deserve it the years they won it.

I'm aware of how the Heisman works... all too well.

That aside, you want go from making a case for Murray (devil's advocate, I know) to talking about 3 races. I'm not talking about 3 races, I'm talking about 5.

Heupel should not have finished second in my opinion. You've already addressed Tebow vs. Bradford, where Tebow was clearly the more impactful player. I've already said though that Bryce Love deserved more consideration, was he any less deserving than Mayfield? I don't think so. 2,118/8.1/19. That's completely legit.

But, truth be told I think Eli Manning deserved the Heisman over White. Look up the stats, yes Jason White had marginally better stats, but this is Big 12 vs. SEC. Who was more impactful though? With Eli Ole Miss was 10-3, without him Ole Miss was 4-7. So we're clear here, the most losses Oklahoma has had since 99 has been 8. So Eli Manning was absolutely, without question a better quarterback than Jason White and he absolutely without question had a bigger impact on his team (a criteria you established). Eli would handily won if he was the one playing for Oklahoma..

Having said that, do I have a big issue with a couple Oklahoma QBs winning a Heisman? Not really. I have a big issue with FOUR winning a Heisman. I have a big issue with the fact that a school that had Namath, Stabler (he deserved real consideration in 67) and Starr has 0 quarterbacks with Heisman trophies and the school that has yet to produce one truly great quarterback gets QB after QB sent to New York. The only reason that's happening is because the system they run and the defenses they play allow for ridiculous numbers. It means that someone like Jason White looks better than Eli Manning, even though any idiot knows who the better QB is. It also seems to make Murray look better than Tua, to some... when one is a baseball player and the other is a football player.

It's absurd, and to make it as clear as possible, yes I think Eli, and Tebow, and Tua are and were more deserving! The problem is they played in the SEC and not for Oklahoma...

cbi1972 · Dec 5, 2018

Where did the idea come from that the Heisman was an MVP award? It should not matter what your team would have accomplished without you. For those of you saying Alabama would still be undefeated and therefore Tua's impact is less, I challenge you to find another player who has transformed the nature of an offense as completely as Tua has. Nick Saban, who has up to this point always preached about offensive balance, is now trusting the instincts of a young quarterback, and asking reporters why it matters if you score with a pass or a run. That's an incredible accomplishment that would be on par with Oklahoma suddenly shutting teams out by playing field position on the back of a pass rushing sack machine of a defensive end.

"They play a lot of sink. They play a lot of stuff where you're going to throw the ball, so if they’re going to play it, we’re going to throw it,” Saban said. “It don’t matter. I don’t care how we score. Do you get points for running more than passing? ... It don’t matter to me."

B1GTide · Dec 5, 2018

cbi1972 said:
Where did the idea come from that the Heisman was an MVP award?

It is not - never has been.

81usaf92 · Dec 5, 2018

KrAzY3 said:
I'm aware of how the Heisman works... all too well.

That aside, you want go from making a case for Murray (devil's advocate, I know) to talking about 3 races. I'm not talking about 3 races, I'm talking about 5.

Heupel should not have finished second in my opinion. You've already addressed Tebow vs. Bradford, where Tebow was clearly the more impactful player. I've already said though that Bryce Love deserved more consideration, was he any less deserving than Mayfield? I don't think so. 2,118/8.1/19. That's completely legit.

But, truth be told I think Eli Manning deserved the Heisman over White. Look up the stats, yes Jason White had marginally better stats, but this is Big 12 vs. SEC. Who was more impactful though? With Eli Ole Miss was 10-3, without him Ole Miss was 4-7. So we're clear here, the most losses Oklahoma has had since 99 has been 8. So Eli Manning was absolutely, without question a better quarterback than Jason White and he absolutely without question had a bigger impact on his team (a criteria you established). Eli would handily won if he was the one playing for Oklahoma..

Having said that, do I have a big issue with a couple Oklahoma QBs winning a Heisman? Not really. I have a big issue with FOUR winning a Heisman. I have a big issue with the fact that a school that had Namath, Stabler (he deserved real consideration in 67) and Starr has 0 quarterbacks with Heisman trophies and the school that has yet to produce one truly great quarterback gets QB after QB sent to New York. The only reason that's happening is because the system they run and the defenses they play allow for ridiculous numbers. It means that someone like Jason White looks better than Eli Manning, even though any idiot knows who the better QB is. It also seems to make Murray look better than Tua, to some... when one is a baseball player and the other is a football player.

It's absurd, and to make it as clear as possible, yes I think Eli, and Tebow, and Tua are and were more deserving! The problem is they played in the SEC and not for Oklahoma...

In your opinion, but Kyler is clearly as deserving as Tua. Without Kyler they just don’t win all of those shootouts. This isn’t as egregious as you are trying to make it out to be. I know you are sore about AJ being labeled all those years about being a game manager and not getting the respect many Bama fans thought he deserved, but this is the equivalent of the NFL MVP. It’s a what have you done for me lately award and “who is most valuable to my team” award. Tua’s heisman dreams probably ended the second Jalen won the SECCG.

FTR I truly hope Tua wins it, but Kyler Murray is still deserving of the award as well.

KrAzY3 · Dec 5, 2018

81usaf92 said:
but Kyler is clearly as deserving as Tua.

Nope, nope, nope, seriously not even close.

Haskins is closer to Murray than Murray is to Tua. I mean go ahead and give UCF the national championship while you're at it, since how you perform relative to the competition you face doesn't mean anything to you.

Apparently it's all just an empty stats award. UCF is undefeated, Murray has a rating of 205, that's three whole points higher than Tua, case closed. Who cares if Murray didn't have to play great defenses and UCF didn't have to plays great teams. Gives them their trophies already.

CajunCrimson · Dec 5, 2018

Kyler wouldn’t survive the preseason NFL. Baseball is th much smarter path.

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