Different Realities: Discrepancies in Sooner & Tide Fans Viewpoints
- Thread starter Trjtrjtrj
- Start date
And that's silly talk. You're talking about a guy that was a true freshman with a coach that was switching QBs throughout the season. Kyler is not the same player that he was then, which is what B1G is making his comment on anyway.
And Bama beat 7 of the remaining 8 by 23 points or more, so unless you think OU's defense is going to magically become UGA in three weeks' time, this point falls flat.
Are you judging 2018 Murray based off of his efforts in a dysfunctional offense at aTm? That aTm team was a dumpster fire, and many QBs failed that year. The failures were on the coaching staff, not the players (IMO).
No. But he was in the SEC, didn't like how it was going, and Barnetted his way out of there and ended up in the land of rainbows and unicorns for offensive players. I don't totally blame him for wanting to go that way, but he did it because, at least in part, he couldn't beat Kyle Allen clearly for the job.
The missing point is the delta between what UGA can accomplish against Bama's defense, and what OU can accomplish against Bama's defense. If Sooners get their way, OU will be able to put lots of points on the board with explosive plays. They've been able to do that all year against lesser defenses. Sooners simply hope that trend continues.
Wait... Is this about Alabama's defense or OU's?
Because Alabama held Georgia 12 points below their season average and doubled up their points allowed average.
OU played five ranked teams this season - none of which have a great defense, and scored 37, 28, 45, 59, and 39 points (avg of 41.6 ppg). Even if you were to get 42 points on Bama, do you really think you defense will keep the #2 scoring offense in the country under 42?
I get that you want to believe, and yes, you have a chance, but the numbers don't lie - nor do they exist in a vacuum.
This is not a personal thing, I don't know you, but you (OU fans in general) seem to not want to put all of the pieces of the puzzle together. If it is a shootout (#1 & #2 offenses, so that's a legit possibility.), I'd take our chances every time. We will stop you more than you will stop us. Nobody wants to admit that. You put our offenses on the same level, as they should be. But then you totally disregard the huge chasm between our defenses. We will stop you more than you will stop us. At least twice, according to Vegas. 
DTC_003: on TideFans.com
DTC_003: on TideFans.com
Looking at numbers like that will not help him tell the story he wants to tell, so he chooses to look at the ones that do. I get that too. Why let things like facts get in the way of your perfectly good story?
Not to pile on, but according to stats that I have seen many times on several networks since the championship games, Fromm actually had the highest passer rating in college football the second half of the season. Georgia also has an equivalent rushing offense to that of the Sooners (separated by only 2.3 yards per game). And they did that against better defenses.
Now, I am not saying that the GA offense is as good as the Sooners, but don't act like their offense is inferior. They have a top 5 offense. Top 5.
What is with all the sooner fans joining this site? I don't think I have ever had the desire to join a site of a team Alabama was playing.
I am really not sure what the point is in saying that OU’s defense is better than 5 of Alabama’s opponents. Those 5 teams have atrocious defenses, and are known to have atrocious defenses. Want to hear a joke? Ole Miss plays defense. That OU’s defense might have performed better than 5 atrocious defenses is not evidence that OU’s defense isn’t atrocious as well.
Also not sure what relevance Tua’s completion percentage in his first P5 game has to anything. Let me guess, he threw 4 passes at the end of a game, had to throw one away, two drops, one catch or something? Our 3rd string QB had something like a 4,000 passer rating in a game this year. 1 pass, 1 80yd touchdown or something. 100% completion rating. That is a meaningless statistic.
OU can certainly win a shootout, especially if Tua has not recovered. But let’s not pretend that OU has a decent defense. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if we shrink the game on OU by running on them and keeping their O off the field. Because OU certainly won’t be able to keep Bama from scoring most drives.
Also not sure what relevance Tua’s completion percentage in his first P5 game has to anything. Let me guess, he threw 4 passes at the end of a game, had to throw one away, two drops, one catch or something? Our 3rd string QB had something like a 4,000 passer rating in a game this year. 1 pass, 1 80yd touchdown or something. 100% completion rating. That is a meaningless statistic.
OU can certainly win a shootout, especially if Tua has not recovered. But let’s not pretend that OU has a decent defense. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if we shrink the game on OU by running on them and keeping their O off the field. Because OU certainly won’t be able to keep Bama from scoring most drives.
Injuries, turnovers, game changing penalties. That's what can change everything.
I think most of us would probably put Oklahoma in the LSU tier in terms of how good they are. Their offense is far better than LSU, but their defense is far worse. They are nowhere near as balanced as Georgia. However, the magical formula for Oklahoma would be to exhaust the Alabama defense. If they can turn the Alabama defense into fourth quarter in the loss to Clemson Alabama defense (they gave up 21 that quarter and couldn't stop anything at the end) then that's the sort of thing that can completely change the game.
For starters, welcome to TideFans. I've only read your post and RTR91s, so maybe someone else addressed it and some of my points will be redundant.
However, I doubt it.
I don't think the consensus is he'll fold, but I hope you will understand the context.
For a decade now, we hear about every third game about how "Quarterback X" is the perfect antidote to Alabama's defense. We have lived through the canonizing as saint BEFORE the game of Tim Tebow (he lost the rematch), Colt McCoy (who only lasted five plays), Kirk Cousins (he got creamed), Cam Newton (who won but it was more of "Alabama implodes" than anything he did), Dennard Robinson (he lost), Johnny Manziel (1-1, and easily could have been either 0-2 or 2-0), Aaron Murray (he lost), Bo Wallace (1-1, and it was turnovers that saved the day for him), Dak Prescott (0-2), Chad Kelly (see Manziel), Greyson Lambert, Kyle Allen, Connor Cook, DeShaun Watson (who was just one pick play from being 0-2 himself - and he had a much better team around him), Trevor Knight (something about him shredding us in a Sugar Bowl that meant diddly at ATM), What's His Name Francois (out for the year), Jake Fromm, Jarrett Stidham (1-1), and Drew Lock (a 29-point loss).
Every single game CBS covers has Gary Danielson saying the magic phrase, "ya gotta have a hot quarterback" to beat Alabama. But if you delve into the numbers, you have to do more than just have a hot quarterback. You have to win the turnover battle and - in most cases - be able to either run the ball, stop the run or BOTH. With the exception of Stephen Garcia, who rumor has it experienced an out of body experience and morphed into Tom Brady for three hours, even those QBs who beat us were not able to do it by themselves. Manziel was bailed out by Big Mike Evans, who was tall enough to catch some of the reckless garbage JM2 threw up in desperation. Chad Kelly was bailed out by one of the most insane touchdown plays I've ever seen.
So please understand that while Murray may be this unique talent, we hear this AD NAUSEUM every single year, every single month of the football season. I'll grant it could make some fans complacent, but I don't think it will the players.
Just know that's the context.
And the reality is that the Big 12 hasn't fielded a national champion since 2005, so that does kind of give credence to the "no defense" suspicion, which I will address further down.
Oklahoma defense better than Ole Miss. I'll grant that's probably true.
But then I look at this:
Ole Miss 47 Texas Tech 27
OU 51 Texas Tech 46
So......OU's better defense gives up three additional scores?
And your offense is substantially better than Ole Miss (I seriously doubt we hold you to 7-10 points), but you only got 5 more points on Tech. Of course, that IS just one data point, and it was the first game of the season, so it would be wrong of me to place undue weight on the one game.
WVA 40 Vols 14
Alabama 58 Vols 21
So the same WVA team that scores 56 in a loss to OU gets only 40 against Tennessee so.....are the Vols' D THAT much better than WVA? The counterpoint that the Vols got 21 on our defense is undercut by the fact one of those scores was a pick six by the defense.
2) The hype machine began in earnest because the SEC won every national championship from 2006 to 2012, and an SEC team has played for the national championship 12 of the last 15 years (and another - Auburn in 2004 - went unbeaten but was shut out of any playoff).
3) Since 2000, the SEC is 44-29 against the Big 12 (.602) and THREE AND O in national championship showdowns, winning the last two by double digits. Only once since 2003 does the Big 12 have a year where they beat the SEC head to head more than they lost.
4) The argument has NEVER been that Vanderbilt would beat Oklahoma or Texas.
The argument has ALWAYS been that you cannot take any team out of their current surroundings and make them play the SEC in conference schedule and expect them to maintain the same record. There have been a few OU teams through the years that would have won the SEC if they played there (1985 and 2000 are two easy examples). Let me further illustrate the point:
Neither OU (nor anyone else) has to:
a) go to Auburn
b) host Alabama in a home game seven days later
c) go to Baton Rouge
d) play their arch rivals
You have to admit that's a pretty killer schedule, right? From 1959 to 1991 that was the schedule Mississippi State played all but twice. On 5 or 6 occasions they had either a Tulane or Memphis or USM thrown in, but they faced that usually murderer's row for over three decades. (and, of course, you invert those every other year, but that's the point).
What about this one?
a) host the Aggies
b) on the road at UGA
c) off week or cupcake
d) on the road at Alabama
That's been Auburn's schedule most every year since ATM came to the SEC.
Will Muschamp is no Urban Meyer, and he coached Florida in 2014.
Botch Jones, the Archbishop of Talent-Bury, coached Tennessee all those seasons.
And it's no accident that they won the division when their West opponents were ATM (who, oh yeah, they'd played almost every year the previous two decades) and Arkansas, who was plummeting under Brett Bielema.
And btw.....that ATM team you're suggesting had an EASIER time in the SEC in 2012 also blew out the Sooners, 41-13, in the Cotton Bowl.
TBF - I think the conference argument needs tweaking anyway and let's be honest - much of the SEC is riding our coattails nowadays anyway. I'll grant that point.
The biggest problem as I see it - and one that still stuns me - is that a program that boasts some of the all-time greatest defenses with players like the Boz and the Selmon brothers has guys that can't even tackle. It's not just that it's nothing but an offense, but the fact that OU IN ALMOST EVERY GAME gives up MORE points on defense than the opponent averages on offense.
I've never run into anything like that when calculating stats. Usually once the cupcake games are subtracted, we SUBTRACT ppg average on every side of the ball. OU is the first team I've ever seen that if the opponent scores 30 ppg, they'll get 37 against OU.
And there's one other thing - the supposed unstoppable juggernaut we keep hearing about. Some Sooner fans - no reflection on present company - seem to have some incredibly selective amnesia when it comes to football games. "Oh, we hung 48 points on Georgia!" No, you didn't. You scored 31 points in a great half, the teams went in and adjusted and the OFFENSE had ONE TOUCHDOWN after halftime.
"Oh, our offense can't be stopped! We hung 45 on Alabama!"
No, you didn't. Your offense - aided by FOUR TURNOVERS scored 38, and the defense scored on a fumble at the end of the game. Yes, the Sooners scored 45 points, and yes, that's more than Alabama usually surrenders - but this ain't the 1983 Cornhuskers against the Washington Generals.
Make no mistake - you're going to score some points. Barring a repeat performance of the 2012 BCSNCG, you're going to score some points on our defense. Tide fans who think this is going to be a 54-7 whacking are likely to be disappointed. But when I see repeated comments like "well, Arkansas got 31 so we'll get at least 40," I'm dealing with ignorance that cannot be undone.
That's as dumb as "but Army" when it comes to analyzing OU.
However, I doubt it.
I don't think the consensus is he'll fold, but I hope you will understand the context.
For a decade now, we hear about every third game about how "Quarterback X" is the perfect antidote to Alabama's defense. We have lived through the canonizing as saint BEFORE the game of Tim Tebow (he lost the rematch), Colt McCoy (who only lasted five plays), Kirk Cousins (he got creamed), Cam Newton (who won but it was more of "Alabama implodes" than anything he did), Dennard Robinson (he lost), Johnny Manziel (1-1, and easily could have been either 0-2 or 2-0), Aaron Murray (he lost), Bo Wallace (1-1, and it was turnovers that saved the day for him), Dak Prescott (0-2), Chad Kelly (see Manziel), Greyson Lambert, Kyle Allen, Connor Cook, DeShaun Watson (who was just one pick play from being 0-2 himself - and he had a much better team around him), Trevor Knight (something about him shredding us in a Sugar Bowl that meant diddly at ATM), What's His Name Francois (out for the year), Jake Fromm, Jarrett Stidham (1-1), and Drew Lock (a 29-point loss).
Every single game CBS covers has Gary Danielson saying the magic phrase, "ya gotta have a hot quarterback" to beat Alabama. But if you delve into the numbers, you have to do more than just have a hot quarterback. You have to win the turnover battle and - in most cases - be able to either run the ball, stop the run or BOTH. With the exception of Stephen Garcia, who rumor has it experienced an out of body experience and morphed into Tom Brady for three hours, even those QBs who beat us were not able to do it by themselves. Manziel was bailed out by Big Mike Evans, who was tall enough to catch some of the reckless garbage JM2 threw up in desperation. Chad Kelly was bailed out by one of the most insane touchdown plays I've ever seen.
So please understand that while Murray may be this unique talent, we hear this AD NAUSEUM every single year, every single month of the football season. I'll grant it could make some fans complacent, but I don't think it will the players.
Just know that's the context.
And the reality is that the Big 12 hasn't fielded a national champion since 2005, so that does kind of give credence to the "no defense" suspicion, which I will address further down.
Ok, let's look at that.
Oklahoma defense better than Ole Miss. I'll grant that's probably true.
But then I look at this:
Ole Miss 47 Texas Tech 27
OU 51 Texas Tech 46
So......OU's better defense gives up three additional scores?
And your offense is substantially better than Ole Miss (I seriously doubt we hold you to 7-10 points), but you only got 5 more points on Tech. Of course, that IS just one data point, and it was the first game of the season, so it would be wrong of me to place undue weight on the one game.
WVA 40 Vols 14
Alabama 58 Vols 21
So the same WVA team that scores 56 in a loss to OU gets only 40 against Tennessee so.....are the Vols' D THAT much better than WVA? The counterpoint that the Vols got 21 on our defense is undercut by the fact one of those scores was a pick six by the defense.
The flaw in this reasoning is thinking the pass rushes of Texas and Alabama are equivalent. Texas is still recovering from their near terminal illness of Charlie Strongitis, so this in and of itself is likely overstated.
I agree with you that it's possible to overstate the minimal points data we have.
1) Missouri dropped by 8-5 to 5-7 their first year in the SEC. They went from 5-4 to 2-6 in conference games.
2) The hype machine began in earnest because the SEC won every national championship from 2006 to 2012, and an SEC team has played for the national championship 12 of the last 15 years (and another - Auburn in 2004 - went unbeaten but was shut out of any playoff).
3) Since 2000, the SEC is 44-29 against the Big 12 (.602) and THREE AND O in national championship showdowns, winning the last two by double digits. Only once since 2003 does the Big 12 have a year where they beat the SEC head to head more than they lost.
4) The argument has NEVER been that Vanderbilt would beat Oklahoma or Texas.
The argument has ALWAYS been that you cannot take any team out of their current surroundings and make them play the SEC in conference schedule and expect them to maintain the same record. There have been a few OU teams through the years that would have won the SEC if they played there (1985 and 2000 are two easy examples). Let me further illustrate the point:
Neither OU (nor anyone else) has to:
a) go to Auburn
b) host Alabama in a home game seven days later
c) go to Baton Rouge
d) play their arch rivals
You have to admit that's a pretty killer schedule, right? From 1959 to 1991 that was the schedule Mississippi State played all but twice. On 5 or 6 occasions they had either a Tulane or Memphis or USM thrown in, but they faced that usually murderer's row for over three decades. (and, of course, you invert those every other year, but that's the point).
What about this one?
a) host the Aggies
b) on the road at UGA
c) off week or cupcake
d) on the road at Alabama
That's been Auburn's schedule most every year since ATM came to the SEC.
But why did Mizzou win those two championships?
Will Muschamp is no Urban Meyer, and he coached Florida in 2014.
Botch Jones, the Archbishop of Talent-Bury, coached Tennessee all those seasons.
And it's no accident that they won the division when their West opponents were ATM (who, oh yeah, they'd played almost every year the previous two decades) and Arkansas, who was plummeting under Brett Bielema.
And btw.....that ATM team you're suggesting had an EASIER time in the SEC in 2012 also blew out the Sooners, 41-13, in the Cotton Bowl.
TBF - I think the conference argument needs tweaking anyway and let's be honest - much of the SEC is riding our coattails nowadays anyway. I'll grant that point.
The biggest problem as I see it - and one that still stuns me - is that a program that boasts some of the all-time greatest defenses with players like the Boz and the Selmon brothers has guys that can't even tackle. It's not just that it's nothing but an offense, but the fact that OU IN ALMOST EVERY GAME gives up MORE points on defense than the opponent averages on offense.
I've never run into anything like that when calculating stats. Usually once the cupcake games are subtracted, we SUBTRACT ppg average on every side of the ball. OU is the first team I've ever seen that if the opponent scores 30 ppg, they'll get 37 against OU.
And there's one other thing - the supposed unstoppable juggernaut we keep hearing about. Some Sooner fans - no reflection on present company - seem to have some incredibly selective amnesia when it comes to football games. "Oh, we hung 48 points on Georgia!" No, you didn't. You scored 31 points in a great half, the teams went in and adjusted and the OFFENSE had ONE TOUCHDOWN after halftime.
"Oh, our offense can't be stopped! We hung 45 on Alabama!"
No, you didn't. Your offense - aided by FOUR TURNOVERS scored 38, and the defense scored on a fumble at the end of the game. Yes, the Sooners scored 45 points, and yes, that's more than Alabama usually surrenders - but this ain't the 1983 Cornhuskers against the Washington Generals.
Make no mistake - you're going to score some points. Barring a repeat performance of the 2012 BCSNCG, you're going to score some points on our defense. Tide fans who think this is going to be a 54-7 whacking are likely to be disappointed. But when I see repeated comments like "well, Arkansas got 31 so we'll get at least 40," I'm dealing with ignorance that cannot be undone.
That's as dumb as "but Army" when it comes to analyzing OU.
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Georgia scored 28 points on Alabama's defense - with the help of two turnovers from a team that doesn't normally turn the ball over. But that 28 points was also double digits below their season average, even corrected with the cupcake games (like APSU, me alma mater) removed. It was also a GEORGIA crowd IN GEORGIA led by a coach who recruited the seniors for Alabama playing in the game and had coached them as freshmen. While I don't pretend this turned Kirby Smart into Bill Belichick, he most certainly had more familiarity with the strengths and weaknesses of the longer term members of the defense than he would have had if he had not been said coach.
I'm expecting a high-scoring game, I'll put up a prediction in another 7-10 days. I've compiled the data, but I've been too tired after work to do much about it.
Fromm had a rating of 163.8 over the last half of the season (last 7 games) and Murray had a rating of 191.2 over that same span.
The average opponent defense UGA faced over that span was 24.3 using FootballOutsiders S&P+, and OU faced an average 28.8 defense (lower is better).
I just went back and looked at the Army game and the two Texas games. Not an X's and O's guy but I did not see anything revolutionary with the Oklahoma offense and I was surprised that I did not see any signs of a superman outfit on Murray. In fact I came away not very impressed with the type of football being played.
Difficult to rate 9-4 Texas but they played Oklahoma straight up and beat them once. A good Army team who was beaten soundly by Duke and played an otherwise non noteworthy schedule took them to overtime.
With no disrespect to the Big 12 visitors here it is very difficult to assess the wide open look that these football games have in comparison to those played in Clemson, Alabama, Georgia etc. where there are great athletes on the defensive side of the ball.
The point is that saying OU is the worse defense in history is probably a little misleading. The fact is many teams are statistically worse than OU's season including some of Bama's schedule.
I hold Tua in the highest regard -- no slight intended at him at all. My point is that freshman QBs may not show their true capabilities until they've had some P5 game experience. Rather, I was trying to support the notion that it MIGHT be misleading to judge Texas Tech's offensive proficiency based on the first game of the season in which Texas Tech started a new freshman QB.
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