How long will UGA put up with Kirby if 2019 ends in a failure?

CaliforniaTide · Dec 20, 2018

81usaf92 said:
I think my point was that Kirby was hired for a specific reason and that was to win a NC, and be better than Mark Richt. Neither has been accomplished.Kirby's 1st 3 years is identical to Richt's 1st 3 years and Kirby had more talent in the cupboard. But intrestingly enough Richt's last 3 years he was 27-11 only 4 games inferior to Kirby. When stats like these are visible to everyone there tends to come a high water mark very quickly in a fanbase in which if the goal isn't reached the next year they start to turn on that coach. Look at Michigan and Harbaugh.

I think my question is "If he doesn't achieve the goal or atleast beat Bama next year, does the UGA fanbase start to look at him more critically than they do and stop looking at him like we look at CNS?" I personally think Kirby has 5 years regardless, but I do think the excitement (don't know if that is the best choice of wording) over him in the UGA fanbase is going to take a serious hit if he doesn't seal the deal next year. Especially with Florida and Tennessee becoming more relevant in each year.

I do think it's a little different with Kirby being an alum of the school. I get the impression that right now, UGA fans feel like it will be "their turn", much like when Alabama beat Florida in the 2009 SECCG. They have to beat Alabama though for that comparison to even work. Like others have said, if they keep losing the super-big games, or keep losing to Alabama in those super-big games, it'll be a lot harder to stomach than a precipitous fall from the top. How long he has as the HC at UGA, I have no clue. Things and moods can change on an instant.

rgw · Dec 20, 2018

Mark Richt got 15 years off 2 SEC titles and a few other teams that finished the season just short of their goals.

The wheels would have to fall off badly for Smart to give fired before the mid-2020s I guess.

Tidetwin · Dec 20, 2018

I think any coach that recruits top echelon athletes will eventually experience a "2010" year. It comes with success.
To Kirby's credit he recruits like a demon and his teams are so much tougher than UGA teams (eg: Richt teams) of the past. Granted, his learning curve as a coach is formidable and he has made some bonehead mistakes. But I think most all of us can agree that Georgia football is in a much better place now because of him.

teamplayer · Dec 20, 2018

81usaf92 said:
All I’ve heard from UGA fans is how 2019 is “The Year”. But what if Georgia Georgia’s again? I mean you can forgive them for the hardest schedule in the country, but UGA on paper might be the most loaded and most experienced team in the nation.

Kirby has the same exact record as Richt in his first 3 years, and has lost 2 highly rated QBs because of Fromm ( granted Fromm is a NFL talent himself). But it seems UGA fans are backing themselves in a do or die season for 2019. I think most of it is because they fear Mullen and Pruitt are going to be serious contenders in the next few years in the east.

More or less my question is “ if Kirby doesn’t get it done next year, will Georgia fans start to question if he will ever get it done and start to look at him as Marc Richt 2.0 instead of Vince Dooley 2.0?”

Other than the one national title, I would argue that Richt had more success than Dooley, and they were very close to getting another SEC and most likely a national title in 2012. Anyway, I think the UGA folks have their guy right now. Kirby is bringing in more talent each and every year. He already has an SEC title and a playoff victory and national title game appearance. I think he would have to really stink it up next year for them to have any concerns. With the talent he is bringing in, they are clearly setting themselves up to be the next king of the SEC when Saban retires. I hope he falls on his face, but he keeps on bringing in the talent to stay at the top.

bamaga · Dec 20, 2018

The REC Will make sure things are handled. I heard at the local chapter meeting, that plans are in the works to hire a new NCAA president to replace Emmert, and put in place rules changes that will be favorable for the next decade of sustained success!

graydogg85 · Dec 20, 2018

Kirby has done very well at UGA thus far, much better that I expected. I thought it was a crazy move to fire Richt and hire Kirby, to be honest. Considering he had no head coaching experience, I kind of expected Kirby to be Will Muchamp at Florida, 2.0. But he’s proven me wrong thus far and has made a lot of the right moves. Time will tell if he will end up being appreciably better than Richt in overall success - but you can say this, his teams play sounder, more disciplined and are clearly better coached on the whole than a lot of Richt’s squads. Richt often seemed to win in spite of a lot of those things.

uafanataum · Dec 21, 2018

UGA plays Florida, Notre Dame, and TAMU next year. I do not think they win all 3. Then if they play Bama in the SECCG again and lose that's another 11-2 season. I think the murmurs start then.

BAMAVILLE · Dec 21, 2018

uafanataum said:
UGA plays Florida, Notre Dame, and TAMU next year. I do not think they win all 3. Then if they play Bama in the SECCG again and lose that's another 11-2 season. I think the murmurs start then.

I can see that bein the case. They honestly would have to lose 2 games in the SEC East for it to really have significant impact. That would mean they would most likely miss the SEC championship all together. Will it happen? I doubt, it but anything is possible.

uafanataum · Dec 21, 2018

BAMAVILLE said:
I can see that bein the case. They honestly would have to lose 2 games in the SEC East for it to really have significant impact. That would mean they would most likely miss the SEC championship all together. Will it happen? I doubt, it but anything is possible.

I doubt they lose 2 games in the SEC East. This year was Kentucky's best year. I think their coach may be onto something but it will be much like that year Mullen got Mississippi State ranked number 1 for a few weeks. They fell off the next year. So UGA should roll over Kentucky next year. Pruitt needs a few more years at UT to make them challenging. I honestly think if UGA had 2 SEC losses next year that one of them will come from the west. My original post I believe they lose one out of the three : their toughest SECE opponent (Florida ) ,their toughest SECW opponent (TAMU) or their toughest OOC opponent (Notre Dame). Then they lose to Bama on the SECCG making them 11-2 2 years consecutively. It would be really great of they lose to TAMU because that would mean they lost to all SECW opponents not names Auburn (LSU, TAMU and Alabama twice) 2 years in a row. Can you imagine the narrative?

PA Tide Fan · Dec 21, 2018

If Georgia keeps winning the SEC East I think Kirby will be fine. His teams have come closer to beating Bama than any of Saban's other former assistants. He must just stay away from making silly play calls at the wrong time. Since he played at Georgia I think they will be more patient with him than an outsider.

BamaInBham · Dec 21, 2018

UAH said:
I believe it would be great if CNS would grow someone as an heir apparent similar to Jimbo at FSU. Obviously that worked for a time. It is likely way too early but someone like Enos could be groomed to play a larger role over a number of years and could be paid adequately to not feel the pressure of greener pastures. The obvious positive to this is avoiding the major cultural change that occurs when an outsider comes in with his own staff.

Recognizing that this has been historically difficult to accomplish in actual practice.

No, no, no :smile:. You have to get someone who has "proven" by doing it at another program. You can't become a great coach by osmosis. You have to have what it takes and find the right circumstances. Very, very few have what it takes. Nick Saban is smarter and more driven and more focused in aggregate than probably any coach has ever been. Bama must have an AD that knows what he is doing and is backed, not controlled, by the admin and boosters. No 'coach in waiting'.

Ole Man Dan · Dec 22, 2018

The shelf life of Kirby depends on how much longer Coach Saban coaches.
If Kirby fails it will be in comparison to Coach Saban.
(That has processed a lot of good coaches)

Probius · Dec 22, 2018

uafanataum said:
UGA plays Florida, Notre Dame, and TAMU next year. I do not think they win all 3. Then if they play Bama in the SECCG again and lose that's another 11-2 season. I think the murmurs start then.

If UGA fans start to complain about an 11-2 record, they will need to have their program taken away from them.

uafanataum · Dec 22, 2018

Probius said:
If UGA fans start to complain about an 11-2 record, they will need to have their program taken away from them.

Mark Richt was dismissed and he was on a 4 game winning streak including beating rivals Auburn and Georgia Tech. He was only 9-3 that year but still, there is a big difference between complaints and dismissal. UGA fans are a bit over the top.

Tideflyer · Dec 22, 2018

Ole Man Dan said:
The shelf life of Kirby depends on how much longer Coach Saban coaches.
If Kirby fails it will be in comparison to Coach Saban.
(That has processed a lot of good coaches)

Never say never, but I personally don`t believe that Kirby would entertain the idea of coming back to Bama upon CNS` retirement. Having said that, I think he`s well on the way to making the question moot even if he did.

Probius · Dec 22, 2018

uafanataum said:
Mark Richt was dismissed and he was on a 4 game winning streak including beating rivals Auburn and Georgia Tech. He was only 9-3 that year but still, there is a big difference between complaints and dismissal. UGA fans are a bit over the top.

Yes, UGA fans are definitely over the top. I think Richt was dismissed mainly because UGA was failing to win a really down SEC east. Missouri won the division two years in a row and then got ran out of the stadium by Auburn and Bama. A really average Florida team won the division two years in a row and then showed twice in a row that they had no chance of beating Bama. UGA fans started asking why they couldn't win a bad SEC east. As long as UGA keeps dominating the east, Kirby's job should be safe.

12Namath12 · Dec 22, 2018

Sorry Jawja fans...Kirby is NO Nick.

selmaborntidefan · Dec 22, 2018

uafanataum said:
Mark Richt was dismissed and he was on a 4 game winning streak including beating rivals Auburn and Georgia Tech. He was only 9-3 that year but still, there is a big difference between complaints and dismissal. UGA fans are a bit over the top.

Mark Richt had also been coaching there for 15 years. They played four teams in 2015 that won more than 7 games.

They lost to three of them and got blown out in two of them. (The other was Georgia Southern, nothing to boast about).

Richt didn't get fired because he lost to Alabama in 2012, his team was an underdog.

He got fired because:
a) he lost to Ron Zook (not Spurrier) and blew a national title shot in 2002
b) he lost to Ron Zook in 2003
c) he played two SEC opponents with 10 wins in 2004 and lost both
d) his team didn't even show up to play the 2006 Sugar Bowl against WVA, a game that built RRod's reputation beyond believability
e) he lost to both Vandy and Kentucky in 2006
f) that bush league celebration against Florida in 2007 and probably having the best team in the SEC yet didn't even make the title game
g) playing two good teams - Alabama and Florida - and getting blown off the map by both after starting the year as a title contender in 08
h) losing 9 of 15 games during a period of 2010 and 11
i) losing to Vandy in 13 and then blowing the Auburn game with defenders that enabled the Prayer at Jordan Hare
j) losing to two average SEC East teams (7 wins) each in 2014 despite probably being the best team in the division
k) not just losing to Alabama as the only favorite over the Tide but getting blown off the field in 2015

Take just two or three of those things away and - even without the national title - he's still in Athens.

Ever look at Richt's record against FBS teams with ten or more wins (e.g. pretty good to really good teams)?

Try 14-26, and one of those wins was against unbeaten Hawaii in 2007. At one point they lost 12 of 14 to good teams, and the two wins were over Hawaii and rival Ga Tech, which is about like USC beating Stanford.

What I'm saying is that Georgia fans learned over 15 years that while he was running up some pretty good numbers against the Little Sisters of the Poor that frequent the SEC East, he basically lost 2/3 of the time he played even minimally good teams.

Kirby Smart is 3-3 against ten-win plus teams, and two of those three losses are last minute losses to the national champs and a playoff team that may wind up national champs.

If Kirby can go .500 or better against really good teams, he will be there a long time.

uafanataum · Dec 22, 2018

selmaborntidefan said:
Mark Richt had also been coaching there for 15 years. They played four teams in 2015 that won more than 7 games.

They lost to three of them and got blown out in two of them. (The other was Georgia Southern, nothing to boast about).

Richt didn't get fired because he lost to Alabama in 2012, his team was an underdog.

He got fired because:
a) he lost to Ron Zook (not Spurrier) and blew a national title shot in 2002
b) he lost to Ron Zook in 2003
c) he played two SEC opponents with 10 wins in 2004 and lost both
d) his team didn't even show up to play the 2006 Sugar Bowl against WVA, a game that built RRod's reputation beyond believability
e) he lost to both Vandy and Kentucky in 2006
f) that bush league celebration against Florida in 2007 and probably having the best team in the SEC yet didn't even make the title game
g) playing two good teams - Alabama and Florida - and getting blown off the map by both after starting the year as a title contender in 08
h) losing 9 of 15 games during a period of 2010 and 11
i) losing to Vandy in 13 and then blowing the Auburn game with defenders that enabled the Prayer at Jordan Hare
j) losing to two average SEC East teams (7 wins) each in 2014 despite probably being the best team in the division
k) not just losing to Alabama as the only favorite over the Tide but getting blown off the field in 2015

Take just two or three of those things away and - even without the national title - he's still in Athens.

Ever look at Richt's record against FBS teams with ten or more wins (e.g. pretty good to really good teams)?

Try 14-26, and one of those wins was against unbeaten Hawaii in 2007. At one point they lost 12 of 14 to good teams, and the two wins were over Hawaii and rival Ga Tech, which is about like USC beating Stanford.

What I'm saying is that Georgia fans learned over 15 years that while he was running up some pretty good numbers against the Little Sisters of the Poor that frequent the SEC East, he basically lost 2/3 of the time he played even minimally good teams.

Kirby Smart is 3-3 against ten-win plus teams, and two of those three losses are last minute losses to the national champs and a playoff team that may wind up national champs.

If Kirby can go .500 or better against really good teams, he will be there a long time.

Well I guess I stand corrected. If you just look at Richts record and accomplishments he looks pretty good, but I guess if you break it down further he is not that good.
One thing I will say that Smart gas going for him: his teams play tougher and more disciplined than Richts. He has the same w/l record through his first 3 years but my eyes tell me his teams are better. I feel the same way comparing Jimbos A&M team versus Sumlin.

81usaf92 · Dec 22, 2018

uafanataum said:
Well I guess I stand corrected. If you just look at Richts record and accomplishments he looks pretty good, but I guess if you break it down further he is not that good.
One thing I will say that Smart gas going for him: his teams play tougher and more disciplined than Richts. He has the same w/l record through his first 3 years but my eyes tell me his teams are better. I feel the same way comparing Jimbos A&M team versus Sumlin.

But UGA fans are getting bothered by him being 0-3 vs the SECW on the road ( all blowouts)

How long will UGA put up with Kirby if 2019 ends in a failure?

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