Best Case and Worst Case scenario predictions

spidermayin

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Dec 4, 2018
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So, I have these predictions I do where I think of what would happen if things go really good for us and what would happen if things don't go so good. These predictions can be serious, or they can be tongue in cheek.

Best Case Scenario for Alabama: We win the toss and choose to go on offense first. We have a fairly time consuming drive and score a touchdown. Oklahoma gets the ball and we stuff them on first down because they do the unexpected and call a straight run play. A tipped pass at the line forces a third and long and we are able to sack Kyler Murray to force a three and out. This sets the tone for the rest of the game. We get a quick touchdown on our second drive. 75 yard catch and run on the slant by Waddle. Kyler tries a long pass on their next drive, but it's intercepted. We get another quick score to extend the lead to 21-0 and it's early in the second. Oklahoma is able to sustain several successful TD drives, but the damage has already been done and we are too far ahead.

Score: Alabama 63 Oklahoma 31

Worst Case Scenario for Alabama: Oklahoma wins the toss. They nickle and dime us to get a few first downs. Kyler breaks a long TD run. The Oklahoma defense is pretty pumped. They are able to sack Tua on first down because he is holding on to the ball too long. We fumble on the second down play and Oklahoma recovers in our territory. Kyler gets a TD pass on the second down play by rolling to his right. There is a bust in coverage, so the guy is wide open. This result of this scenario will play out a lot like the Ole Miss game in 2015, but much more high scoring. We are able to rally a few times, but several big plays by Oklahoma's offense keeps us just behind.

Score: Oklahoma 55 Alabama 49
 

B1GTide

TideFans Legend
Apr 13, 2012
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IMO, Alabama's worst case scenario that does not include 5 turnovers is a narrow win.
 

JustNeedMe81

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Sep 30, 2011
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So, I have these predictions I do where I think of what would happen if things go really good for us and what would happen if things don't go so good. These predictions can be serious, or they can be tongue in cheek.

Best Case Scenario for Alabama: We win the toss and choose to go on offense first. We have a fairly time consuming drive and score a touchdown. Oklahoma gets the ball and we stuff them on first down because they do the unexpected and call a straight run play. A tipped pass at the line forces a third and long and we are able to sack Kyler Murray to force a three and out. This sets the tone for the rest of the game. We get a quick touchdown on our second drive. 75 yard catch and run on the slant by Waddle. Kyler tries a long pass on their next drive, but it's intercepted. We get another quick score to extend the lead to 21-0 and it's early in the second. Oklahoma is able to sustain several successful TD drives, but the damage has already been done and we are too far ahead.

Score: Alabama 63 Oklahoma 31

Worst Case Scenario for Alabama: Oklahoma wins the toss. They nickle and dime us to get a few first downs. Kyler breaks a long TD run. The Oklahoma defense is pretty pumped. They are able to sack Tua on first down because he is holding on to the ball too long. We fumble on the second down play and Oklahoma recovers in our territory. Kyler gets a TD pass on the second down play by rolling to his right. There is a bust in coverage, so the guy is wide open. This result of this scenario will play out a lot like the Ole Miss game in 2015, but much more high scoring. We are able to rally a few times, but several big plays by Oklahoma's offense keeps us just behind.

Score: Oklahoma 55 Alabama 49
I think Bama has deferred to opponents on coin toss often?
 

Nolan

Hall of Fame
Jul 4, 2006
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To speak to the coin toss exclusively, this is definitely the kind of game and opponent for which you take the ball first. No sense in putting KM on the field any sooner than you have to.
 

CajunCrimson

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Mar 13, 2001
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To speak to the coin toss exclusively, this is definitely the kind of game and opponent for which you take the ball first. No sense in putting KM on the field any sooner than you have to.
I think Saban defers.....that way you make sure you get the ball to start the 3rd -- and avoid any huge momentum shifts by having OU close out the 2nd Q and start the 3rd.

Plus if you stop them on the first drive, it might be over.
 

JustNeedMe81

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I think Saban defers.....that way you make sure you get the ball to start the 3rd -- and avoid any huge momentum shifts by having OU close out the 2nd Q and start the 3rd.

Plus if you stop them on the first drive, it might be over.
You want to see what they would do, and adjust on second series. If we score coming out of halftime, it can affect them mentally...
 

tusks_n_raider

Hall of Fame
May 13, 2009
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I want KM on the field right off the bat.

I've watched him all year and while he IS an elusive runner he's going to be forced to throw into TIGHT Windows. Windows that he hasn't consistently had to make throws in all year. I'm not even remotely afraid of this guy.

They will score some points..... probably anywhere from 27 to 37 would be my guess. They WILL NOT drop 50+ on this Defense. They would need several TO's for points or OT to reach that type of output.

My Mindset is 100% on the Best Case scenario. If anything else happens we will deal with it post-game.

Right now though I can only see our Defense being ANGRY and out to prove a point...... and our WR's/IRV will be running in Ocean sized Zones with Tua dropping dimes right on them ALL NIGHT with OU defenders flopping all over the field missing tackles like they have ALL SEASON.

Good luck tackling Josh Jacobs too. He might have an MVP night if Tua doesn't.
 

B1GTide

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Apr 13, 2012
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If winning or losing the coin toss is going to decide this game, Alabama isn't nearly as good as we think that they are. Forget who has the ball first, or who scores first. What matter is who plays better over the course of the entire game, and I find it hard to believe that the Sooners are capable of outperforming Alabama over the course of an entire game. At some point, that poor defense is going to fold - possibly from the first snap.
 

deliveryman35

Hall of Fame
Jul 26, 2003
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Imo there is a path to victory for Oklahoma but it will involve unforced errors and assistance from us. Could it happen? Absolutely. Would I bet on it happening this time? No.
 

selmaborntidefan

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Mar 31, 2000
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I will ruin my later statistical prediction:

we're going to win, 54-38.

They're likely to score on the first drive, possibly the second as well.

This isn't facing Georgia seven days after facing Auburn. This will be the best coach of his generation having four weeks to figure out how to defense an incredibly awesome college quarterback (and athlete). Remember that them scoring 38 would still be double digits below what they normally score.


OU can win if any or all of the following happen:
- Tide players take it for granted they're going to win (unlikely but possible)
- Alabama uncharacteristically turns the ball over (see 2015 Ole Miss or wth 2013 OU)
- key injuries to key personnel (see Bo Scarborough 2016)
- OU learns how to tackle better and play pass defense in the last four weeks (highly unlikely but possible)
- Lincoln Riley outgames Saban (only Urban Meyer and maybe Dabo the second time have shown the ability to do this so far; Spurrier was pretty good at it)
 

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