Stats Model Retrospective: 1993 Sugar Bowl

STONECOLDSABAN

All-American
Sep 21, 2007
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We were at the one and had penalties. That cost us four points.

That last TD would have made it 55 or 56 with a PAT.

So.....yeah.


WE cost ourselves, the model still holds.
That would have been just scary accurate if not for a few plays and I mean a few. I hope you got a good feeling/numbers about next Monday.
 

81usaf92

TideFans Legend
Apr 26, 2008
35,306
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South Alabama
One thing that confuses me is that Tubberville ( an assistant on Miami that year) said recently that Gino Torretta was the 3rd best QB on their roster. I’m trying to see his point
 

selmaborntidefan

TideFans Legend
Mar 31, 2000
36,432
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Remember, it attests to AVERAGE performance. If a team plays below or above par, it breaks down (which is why Notre Dame only had 3 points when the model said 15.


PAST USES OF THE MODEL
2013 BCS Title Game: Alabama 28 Notre Dame 7
2014 Sugar Bowl: Alabama Ohio State pick 'em (34-34)
2015 Cotton Bowl: Alabama 31 Michigan State 10 (I fudged it to 17 because I couldn't believe it)
2016 Title Game: Alabama 27 Clemson 17 (got the score wrong but we were up by 12 with seconds left)
Super Bowl XLIX: Seattle 28 New England 24 (hey, if Pete Carroll hadn't phoned Les Miles......)
Super Bowl XL: Carolina 28 Denver 23 (I honestly thought this one was wrong, but I couldn't spot a switching variable anywhere)
2016 Peach Bowl: Alabama 30 Washington 16
2017 CFPNCG: Alabama 31 Clemson 17
Super Bowl XLI: New England 31 Atlanta 27

Alabama 38 Georgia 24 (the model actually showed 38-28, I deducted a variable based on the 20-point loss to LSU)
Clemson 35 Notre Dame 20 (well, they DID beat them by 15 or more)
Alabama 54 Oklahoma 35 (it spit out 53-34, but I figured they were more likely to have 5 TDs and that we would score six TDs, miss a PAT, and kick two FGs)


I'll run our numbers.....maybe tomorrow. I'm retro looking at 1991 Washington-Miami while watching the Aggies on one TV and the Calgary Flames on the other.
 

selmaborntidefan

TideFans Legend
Mar 31, 2000
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I ran it for the Rose Bowl.


It shows the following:

Ohio State's expected points range is: 29-32.
Washington's is: 28-29.

The game is on the West Coast. That's a point in Washington's favor.
It's Urban's last game. I think that's a point in their favor.

Oregon and Michigan State was an even match and a wash.


Washington's defense has only surrendered more than 24 points ONCE - and that was in overtime.

I'm going to lean towards Washington in this one, 28-24. But the model DOES call it a toss-up.
 

selmaborntidefan

TideFans Legend
Mar 31, 2000
36,432
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One thing that confuses me is that Tubberville ( an assistant on Miami that year) said recently that Gino Torretta was the 3rd best QB on their roster. I’m trying to see his point
He may have been right.

Torretta had much better receivers in 1992 than Frank Costa had in 1994.

Kevin Williams, Lamar Thomas, Horace Copeland >>>>>>>>>Chris Jones, AC Telison, Yatil Green

Torretta would be forgotten save for having won the Heisman. And Garrison Hearst should have won it that year.
 

tattooguy21

Suspended
Aug 14, 2012
3,615
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I ran it for the Rose Bowl.


It shows the following:

Ohio State's expected points range is: 29-32.
Washington's is: 28-29.

The game is on the West Coast. That's a point in Washington's favor.
It's Urban's last game. I think that's a point in their favor.

Oregon and Michigan State was an even match and a wash.


Washington's defense has only surrendered more than 24 points ONCE - and that was in overtime.

I'm going to lean towards Washington in this one, 28-24. But the model DOES call it a toss-up.
I just can't see that. Despite the numbers. I think this is a 40+ to -20 game in favor of Ohio State. Based off the, "win one for the gipper" formula.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 

selmaborntidefan

TideFans Legend
Mar 31, 2000
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I just can't see that. Despite the numbers. I think this is a 40+ to -20 game in favor of Ohio State. Based off the, "win one for the gipper" formula.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
And you may be right.



But if we hold to defense >>>>>> offense........Washington had a very underrated defense this year. And Ohio St has been known to have trouble with even some not so stellar defenses.


I'm not betting on the game, though, and I warn folks not to do it. Urban's last game is one that can go either way.

Pat Dye's last game saw Auburn play VERY good for a half in 1992 despite being 5-5. Same with Bill McCartney or Frank Beamer.


It really depends in large part on which Ohio St team shows up. The team that beat Michigan will win; the one that lost to Purdue and should have lost to Maryland will lose.
 

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