Early thoughts on Clemson
- Thread starter bamacpa
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Trevor Lawrence is going to be harder to deal with than Kyler Murray if we don’t get pressure on him. Trevor is kinda like Jake Fromm. Etienne is a hell of a running back.
If we make the same dumb mistakes as we did against Oklahoma then we are going to be in a dog fight. If we play our best game and they play theirs then we beat them by 2 scores. Clemson is where they are for a reason, and they are better than they were last year. Hopefully we can get to Lawrence early and often and coast to 18. But I’m predicting a 6-10 point victory
If we make the same dumb mistakes as we did against Oklahoma then we are going to be in a dog fight. If we play our best game and they play theirs then we beat them by 2 scores. Clemson is where they are for a reason, and they are better than they were last year. Hopefully we can get to Lawrence early and often and coast to 18. But I’m predicting a 6-10 point victory
That goes without saying - any quality QB is going to be a problem if you give them time. It is a good thing that Alabama is not going to give him time.
Bama's weakness is lack of depth on D. They were obviously fatigued in the second half. Need to build a lead on Clemson also. I don't think Clemson's O line is a good as the Sooners so that will help. But Clemson is playing very well. so Bama better clean up their game some in this one.
Two things led t that fatigue - the time off and the temp/humidity. Neither of those will be a problem in Cali.
Is Texas A&M the toughest team Clemson has played all year? I’d say yes. If so, the gap in talent and speed is going to be profound. They have good on good in practice but it’s not the same. Play our game and to our ability and Bama wins.
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I would throw out the Notre Dame game from a Clemson D perspective. Under Kelly Notre Dame often has a quality OL but this was not one of their stronger units. This was a physical mismatch up front. Maybe if they could bring back the 2017 OL for this game then it could've been a contest. It was telling that in a big moment (4th down in 2nd quarter) Clemson was more than happy to put a LB/S hybrid on ND's best WR Miles Boykin in the slot AND he was trailing him step for step on a slot fade concept THEN defended the pass! This was an across the board mismatch and games like this are for the partisans to make youtube highlight reels not for analysis.
The Lawrence suspension was no big deal versus Notre Dame but I believe it looms large for this matchup. Clemson's DBs have been burned a bunch this season. Venables likes to load the box up and work line games and stunts to isolate his rushers in one on ones. He'll leave his DBs on islands, force you to pass, and bet he'll make you throw it away or take a sack before they get burned. Unsurprisingly, the best job we've done against their defense was in 2015 when Coker was playing his best ball late in the season. 2016 and 2017 were noted struggles for passing game consistency and accordingly Venables did a pretty good job of giving his offense a chance to win (31 and 24 points). Because of Lawrence being out we will run well enough to force Venables to stay true to his scheme and load up the box. If we can block up those blitzes then we're gonna get explosive plays. This game hinges on Tua's ankle/knee being 100% because we're gonna need some extension/secondary offense at times.
I think Notre Dame did show some positive things for us w/r/t to Clemson's offense. Until they started having back seven guys drop out of the game, they were frustrating Lawrence a bit. Other than one complete front bust that led to an Etienne long TD run, Clemson was mostly contained on the ground. They're still not quite blueblood level on the offensive front for whatever reason. Good but not great would be my prognosis. Notre Dame's lacking depth on defense really became the sticking point as Clemson harassed the replacements due to injuries for several long TD throws. Notre Dame did a poor job with Renfrow on 1st/3rd downs too. It is hard to cover him because they do a good job of moving him around to matchup on backers if you're zoning and leveraging option routes if you just stick a nickel corner on him in man coverage. Confusing Lawrence and getting deflections at the LOS seems to be the key for defending these possession throws.
The key for this game is how we matchup with their 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE/H-B, 3 WR). This is their preferred base personnel grouping to operate out of for runs or passes. If we can contain their run with 6 as we have in each matchup thus far then mix coverages on Lawrence then I think we can force him into bad throws assuming we can collapse the pocket on him. He's a good runner but he's not Kyler Murray. He'll probably bust us on a scramble a few times but I don't see 111 yards rushing in his future.
My early prediction is Alabama 35 Clemson 20. I think Tua throws for 4 TDs again. Most of them will probably be long throws. His completion percentage will be about his average but we have a few drives killed by sacks or holds forced by their DL. We run for about 150 yards as a team. Jacobs and N. Harris are the top performers though neither has a big game by yardage.
Clemson made the smart move to Lawrence with this game in mind but I think Saban's noted success against Freshmen quarterbacks will continue next week. He'll play well but have a few 3rd downs where he doesn't make a good throw and maybe a huge turnover that results in a score.
The Lawrence suspension was no big deal versus Notre Dame but I believe it looms large for this matchup. Clemson's DBs have been burned a bunch this season. Venables likes to load the box up and work line games and stunts to isolate his rushers in one on ones. He'll leave his DBs on islands, force you to pass, and bet he'll make you throw it away or take a sack before they get burned. Unsurprisingly, the best job we've done against their defense was in 2015 when Coker was playing his best ball late in the season. 2016 and 2017 were noted struggles for passing game consistency and accordingly Venables did a pretty good job of giving his offense a chance to win (31 and 24 points). Because of Lawrence being out we will run well enough to force Venables to stay true to his scheme and load up the box. If we can block up those blitzes then we're gonna get explosive plays. This game hinges on Tua's ankle/knee being 100% because we're gonna need some extension/secondary offense at times.
I think Notre Dame did show some positive things for us w/r/t to Clemson's offense. Until they started having back seven guys drop out of the game, they were frustrating Lawrence a bit. Other than one complete front bust that led to an Etienne long TD run, Clemson was mostly contained on the ground. They're still not quite blueblood level on the offensive front for whatever reason. Good but not great would be my prognosis. Notre Dame's lacking depth on defense really became the sticking point as Clemson harassed the replacements due to injuries for several long TD throws. Notre Dame did a poor job with Renfrow on 1st/3rd downs too. It is hard to cover him because they do a good job of moving him around to matchup on backers if you're zoning and leveraging option routes if you just stick a nickel corner on him in man coverage. Confusing Lawrence and getting deflections at the LOS seems to be the key for defending these possession throws.
The key for this game is how we matchup with their 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE/H-B, 3 WR). This is their preferred base personnel grouping to operate out of for runs or passes. If we can contain their run with 6 as we have in each matchup thus far then mix coverages on Lawrence then I think we can force him into bad throws assuming we can collapse the pocket on him. He's a good runner but he's not Kyler Murray. He'll probably bust us on a scramble a few times but I don't see 111 yards rushing in his future.
My early prediction is Alabama 35 Clemson 20. I think Tua throws for 4 TDs again. Most of them will probably be long throws. His completion percentage will be about his average but we have a few drives killed by sacks or holds forced by their DL. We run for about 150 yards as a team. Jacobs and N. Harris are the top performers though neither has a big game by yardage.
Clemson made the smart move to Lawrence with this game in mind but I think Saban's noted success against Freshmen quarterbacks will continue next week. He'll play well but have a few 3rd downs where he doesn't make a good throw and maybe a huge turnover that results in a score.
So I’m assuming yes, but the 3 players will be suspended for the title game as well? I saw something about an appeal process, so I didn’t know what exactly that meant. But IMO, Dexter’s absence will be felt much more in this game against us than it was against ND.
Yes, they will be suspended for this game as well. Dexter is a big loss for Clemson, mainly because of depth though Dexter was the starter for a reason.
Bingo. Same here. Unless ND's DL is a top 2-3 unit (I have no idea), there's no reason to suspect that Bama won't be able to get consistent pressure as well. And I believe we'll actually make tackles behind the line of scrimmage as opposed to ND, who seemed to be be playing 'two-below' with Lawrence.
They go from 1.7 YPC to 3.0 YPC without him on the field. He is their best run stopper, and it isn't close.
What is the appeal process for? I guess I’m just used to hearing about appeals in the NFL more than in college FB.
ND is #36 in team sacks - Alabama is #6. ND is #64 in TFL - Alabama is # 18. Not sure about QB pressures, but Alabama is clearly better at getting in the backfield and disrupting an offense than ND.
There have been times when players could prove that they did not take the substance - that their positive result came from something else. It is very rare, as most players are guilty as charged because you are guilty if you took a product that had the substance, even if it was not on the label.
There's no appeal for this that will happen before next week if at all. His A and B sample failed. It is cut and dry here. He's serving 6 games minimum if not a full calendar year of competition.
Didn't you basically say that about Oklahoma?
When the dust settles, Georgia will have been the best team Bama faced all year.
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I'll give you better on the offensive side on the ball though the amount is up for debate.
On the defensive side of the ball, however...
Do me a favor and go down the list of potential defensive starters for this game and show me the starters you guys have that are better than last year's. 'Cause I'm not seeing it.
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And not getting nearly the credit he deserves for it.
Look at the highest rated passers is the country, you'll see:
1. Tua
2. Murray
3. Fromm
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