Just visited a betting website and saw where BAMA opened as a 7 pt favorite and now the line is down to mostly 5 pts and one Casino has BAMA as 4.5 pt favorite. I won't bet on the game and think the game will be extremely close. Clemson's competition has just not been good enough to really gauge how good they really are, although they are really good. Just thought I'd share.
Betting line is moving toward Clemson.
- Thread starter melvinm
- Start date
Thought it opened at -6.5 and it’s closing at -4.5?[emoji848]
Bama is notorious for not covering.
Bama is notorious for not covering.
Clemson looked dominant against ND late, and Alabama looked gassed late in the Oklahoma game on D. Also, read where "smart" money thinks Clemson's D will give Tua trouble much like Ga did. No way it seems smart to bet against Bama. Tua looks healthy now. I imagine the late money will pour in on the Tide. Look for the line to be closer to 7 than 5 at kickoff.
I believe Tua is much healthier than he was against UGA...............I wouldn't bet on the game either, but I don't think Clemson has faced a QB like Tua either. Both teams are pretty evenly matched
The line moving from 7 down to 5 in favor of Bama means more of the gambling public are putting their bets on Clemson to either win outright or beat the spread. If the money was increasing on the Bama side then the line would go up.
Regardless, I would never bet the line on Alabama as a favorite. Never.
Regardless, I would never bet the line on Alabama as a favorite. Never.
The money is mostly coming in on Bama but the line is falling because Vegas is worried that late pro money is gonna come in on Clemson.
I believe it would be 100% factual to say that Clemson has not faced a team like Alabama on either side of the ball. It seems obvious that there are some great athletes at Clemson but they have not been tested physically since the first game at TAMU. The pundits can talk and talk and talk but no one knows how this is going to match up until kick off.
You must be plugged in to some serious bookmakers. I’ll readily admit that I’m not. So in other words, you’re basically saying that the bookies are themselves ‘gambling’ by artificially moving the point spread figure down hoping to equalize on the late bets? Seems pretty risky for guys that are notorious for making out like bandits no matter who wins.
Mond for TAM would be the closest thing, and he threw for 430 yards & 3 TDs against him so IMO that bodes well for Tua.
Actually they talked about that on ESPNU radio earlier today. Evidently more individual bettors going with Bama but a number of big money bettors going with Clemson, so total $$ bet favors them.
Me either. Las Vegas was built on the backs of losers, not winners. I work too hard for what little money that I do earn now to gamble it away. I just happen to know how a lot of works from watching my granddad when I was growing up bet on everything from poker to ballgames.
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"Also, read where "smart" money thinks Clemson's D will give Tua trouble much like Ga did."
Only if smart money believes Clemson injures Tua early in the game. I guess lightning could strike twice but it could also strike Trevor and Clemson....Scissorcuse anyone? Then where would smart money be on?? Trevor's backup or Jalen!! If only smart money knew!!!
So, it seems like a lot of you aren't betters. Let me explain what has happened. (I've been a gambler for about 20 years on sports.)
FIRST: The initial line at 6.5 was seeing no action except 1) some fans and 2) the usual lookey loos that pop up for whatever major sport event of the week there is to bet on.
So after not seeing the action expected, the bookies shaved 1.5 from the spread. Got a little action but not what was expected. Part of the problem was bettors going, "what changed? No suspensions, injuries, etc that we didn't know about already, but the lines dropped. And if it's dropped, then I wonder if it'll drop again."
All the injuries/suspensions were already known when the line was originally made and bookies don't make lines based on them "thinking" a guy will make it back from an injury.
SECOND: STILL not seeing the expected action they said, "screw it, let's load the boat/ drag the bottom" aka put out a spread so gorgeous they not only will it pull in a whole wave of casual bettors, it'll be too good for big money to turn down.
So I'm casual fan little money. Anything under 2 field goals spread is hard to pass up.
So I'm big money. Saban never covers big spreads in big games (excuse this entire season where he destroyed the spreads even as they got ridiculous.) Clemons so good they're sure to keep it at just a FG plus some. Right?
At the end of the day Vegas wants to attract money, and that's what they did. Usually as soon as the spreads announced you'll see 30% or so of all the bets made within three first 48 hours. This year....under 15%, even with a day remaining.
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FIRST: The initial line at 6.5 was seeing no action except 1) some fans and 2) the usual lookey loos that pop up for whatever major sport event of the week there is to bet on.
So after not seeing the action expected, the bookies shaved 1.5 from the spread. Got a little action but not what was expected. Part of the problem was bettors going, "what changed? No suspensions, injuries, etc that we didn't know about already, but the lines dropped. And if it's dropped, then I wonder if it'll drop again."
All the injuries/suspensions were already known when the line was originally made and bookies don't make lines based on them "thinking" a guy will make it back from an injury.
SECOND: STILL not seeing the expected action they said, "screw it, let's load the boat/ drag the bottom" aka put out a spread so gorgeous they not only will it pull in a whole wave of casual bettors, it'll be too good for big money to turn down.
So I'm casual fan little money. Anything under 2 field goals spread is hard to pass up.
So I'm big money. Saban never covers big spreads in big games (excuse this entire season where he destroyed the spreads even as they got ridiculous.) Clemons so good they're sure to keep it at just a FG plus some. Right?
At the end of the day Vegas wants to attract money, and that's what they did. Usually as soon as the spreads announced you'll see 30% or so of all the bets made within three first 48 hours. This year....under 15%, even with a day remaining.
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I don't know why they call it "smart" money. I don't bet, just find it interesting their seems to be a science behind it. They obviously don't factor in Tua's injury in the Ga game as being the reason for his struggles. We will find out soon. But if Bama plays their best game, they win. I wouldn't bet hoping a team doesn't play its best.
"Also, read where "smart" money thinks Clemson's D will give Tua trouble much like Ga did."
Only if smart money believes Clemson injures Tua early in the game. I guess lightning could strike twice but it could also strike Trevor and Clemson....Scissorcuse anyone? Then where would smart money be on?? Trevor's backup or Jalen!! If only smart money knew!!!
I agree. Their competition just does not measure up to ours. But I think they will play us tough. It comes down to the one that wants it the most.
:BigA:
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