PREVIOUS USES OF THIS MODEL
2013 BCS Title Game: Alabama 28 Notre Dame 7
2014 Sugar Bowl: Alabama Ohio State pick 'em (34-34)
2015 Cotton Bowl: Alabama 31 Michigan State 10 (I fudged it to 17 because I couldn't believe it)
2016 Title Game: Alabama 27 Clemson 17 (got the score wrong but we were up by 12 with seconds left)
Super Bowl XLIX: Seattle 28 New England 24 (hey, if Pete Carroll hadn't phoned Les Miles......)
Super Bowl XL: Carolina 28 Denver 23
2016 Peach Bowl: Alabama 30 Washington 16
2017 CFPNCG: Alabama 31 Clemson 17
Super Bowl XLI: New England 31 Atlanta 27
2018 SECCG: Alabama 38 Georgia 24 (note: model showed 38-28)
2018 Playoff: Clemson 35 Notre Dame 20
2018 Playoff: Alabama 54 Oklahoma 35 (note: model showed 53-34)
2019 Rose Bowl: Washington vs Ohio St (rated a toss-up, I chose Washington, 28-24)
========================
This is the closest stats model based look I've ever done. Ever.
When I say "corrected PPG" or corrected anything, I've removed "cupcake games" that skew the stats. Also - in the case of Texas A/M and LSU, I ONLY counted REGULATION points, not the nonsense that gave a false idea later. Indeed, I only count one overtime because things go crazy after that point.
CORRECTED STATS
Alabama scores 45.9 ppg and surrenders 15.9. If you remove the anomaly of Oklahoma, Alabama surrenders 14.1 ppg. The Tide holds opponents an average of 13 points below their normal average. The Alabama offense ON AVERAGE scores 16.95 ppg above what opponents normally yield.
Clemson scores 44.5 ppg and surrenders 13.9 ppg. Removing Syrcause lowers Clemson's defensive surrender to above 12.8 ppg. On average, the Tigers score 14.6 ppg above what opponents surrender and holds them 19.5 ppg below what they usually get.
The sets Alabama's projected points total for an average performance between 26 and 30 points and Clemson's between 30 and 33 points. This assumes ALL THINGS ARE EQUAL, which they are not. At least - not exactly.
CAVEATS
Of course, there's a problem in evaluating the Alabama numbers. The Tide's numbers from most of the season are from THREE QUARTERS of a game, not four. Of course, Chase Brice did play in most games, but he wasn't throwing much save for the Syracuse game, where he relieved Lawrence after the stellar QB was removed from the game via concussion. If anything, Clemson's running numbers may be inflated since neither head coach has a reputation for running up scores on hapless opponents.
Clemson only surrendered 26 points twice - to A/M and South Carolina, a game that was never in serious doubt after halftime. Alabama surrendered 26 or more points three times: Arkansas, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Arkansas, of course, was two late scores against the fourth string, and the OU game was still 15 points below what the Sooners were averaging. Alabama also had four games where the opponents scored either once or not at all while Clemson had six of those.
Then there's the problem of the strength of schedule. To be honest, SoS is way overblown at this point of the season. A team finessing its way through an easy flower garden usually has several close calls if they're not very good. Clemson only had two, one due to QB injury and the other early in the year on the road in a very tough venue at Kyle Field. However, the SEC does have the edge in the conference match ups this year with a 6-3 record. Of course, 2 of the 3 wins are from Clemson while 2 of the 6 losses are from South Carolina. The problem in this evaluation is that Virginia beat South Carolina with greater ease than Clemson and nobody in his right mind thinks UVA is better than the Tigers.
The teams have nearly the same number of penalties but Alabama's have been more severe, losing nearly 100 yards more. Clemson is plus 3 in the turnover margin for the year, Alabama is plus 8.
But then there's the question of the Clemson secondary as well as the Alabama secondary.
If you throw out the obvious anomaly with Oklahoma, the team that had the most success against Alabama in 2018 was Georgia. What did Georgia do?
They threw the ball 40 times, completing 25 - for 301 yards.
They rushed the ball 39 times for 153 yards.
In short, Georgia had an almost perfect mix of runs and passes and owned Alabama for most of the afternoon. Of course, Alabama's performance was hampered by an injury to Tua and a poorly thrown ball on the first possession that had the effect of losing 7 points. Georgia kept the ball for 35 minutes. Clemson's running game is better than Georgia's statistically. Clemson's passing offense is also substantially better than Georgia's.
The catch, of course, is Tua is not hobbling as he was in the UGA game.
The team that came closest to beating Clemson, of course, was Texas A/M. What did the Aggies do? Kellen Mond had a field day throwing the ball. Indeed, were it not for two Aggie turnovers, they would have won. While it is correct to not draw too much from Clemson's OFFENSE from that game, the fact Lawrence or Bryant wasn't the sole starter really has nothing to do with the defense giving up 430 yards passing to a guy who AVERAGED 223 ypg passing in his OTHER games.
And that - I believe is going to be the key arbiter to outcome of the game.
Look over the season:
Ga Tech only threw eight passes thanks to D.A. Baxter's run on all downs approach.
Eric Dungey averaged 217 in his other games but got 250 and nearly beat the Tigers.
Kellen Mond has been covered.
On the flip side, they did quite well against Ryan Finley and Ian Book.
Clemson has faced one passing attack (NC State) statistically close to Alabama and manhandled them while surrendering a lot to two others. Alabama has faced three passing offenses better than Clemson (Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Mizzou) and manhandled two while containing the third.
The key to the game is the Clemson running attack. If they can rush for more than 150 yards, the Tigers will win the game.
PREDICTION
Alabama 30 (with a missed PAT)
Clemson 28
2013 BCS Title Game: Alabama 28 Notre Dame 7
2014 Sugar Bowl: Alabama Ohio State pick 'em (34-34)
2015 Cotton Bowl: Alabama 31 Michigan State 10 (I fudged it to 17 because I couldn't believe it)
2016 Title Game: Alabama 27 Clemson 17 (got the score wrong but we were up by 12 with seconds left)
Super Bowl XLIX: Seattle 28 New England 24 (hey, if Pete Carroll hadn't phoned Les Miles......)
Super Bowl XL: Carolina 28 Denver 23
2016 Peach Bowl: Alabama 30 Washington 16
2017 CFPNCG: Alabama 31 Clemson 17
Super Bowl XLI: New England 31 Atlanta 27
2018 SECCG: Alabama 38 Georgia 24 (note: model showed 38-28)
2018 Playoff: Clemson 35 Notre Dame 20
2018 Playoff: Alabama 54 Oklahoma 35 (note: model showed 53-34)
2019 Rose Bowl: Washington vs Ohio St (rated a toss-up, I chose Washington, 28-24)
========================
This is the closest stats model based look I've ever done. Ever.
When I say "corrected PPG" or corrected anything, I've removed "cupcake games" that skew the stats. Also - in the case of Texas A/M and LSU, I ONLY counted REGULATION points, not the nonsense that gave a false idea later. Indeed, I only count one overtime because things go crazy after that point.
CORRECTED STATS
Alabama scores 45.9 ppg and surrenders 15.9. If you remove the anomaly of Oklahoma, Alabama surrenders 14.1 ppg. The Tide holds opponents an average of 13 points below their normal average. The Alabama offense ON AVERAGE scores 16.95 ppg above what opponents normally yield.
Clemson scores 44.5 ppg and surrenders 13.9 ppg. Removing Syrcause lowers Clemson's defensive surrender to above 12.8 ppg. On average, the Tigers score 14.6 ppg above what opponents surrender and holds them 19.5 ppg below what they usually get.
The sets Alabama's projected points total for an average performance between 26 and 30 points and Clemson's between 30 and 33 points. This assumes ALL THINGS ARE EQUAL, which they are not. At least - not exactly.
CAVEATS
Of course, there's a problem in evaluating the Alabama numbers. The Tide's numbers from most of the season are from THREE QUARTERS of a game, not four. Of course, Chase Brice did play in most games, but he wasn't throwing much save for the Syracuse game, where he relieved Lawrence after the stellar QB was removed from the game via concussion. If anything, Clemson's running numbers may be inflated since neither head coach has a reputation for running up scores on hapless opponents.
Clemson only surrendered 26 points twice - to A/M and South Carolina, a game that was never in serious doubt after halftime. Alabama surrendered 26 or more points three times: Arkansas, Georgia, and Oklahoma. Arkansas, of course, was two late scores against the fourth string, and the OU game was still 15 points below what the Sooners were averaging. Alabama also had four games where the opponents scored either once or not at all while Clemson had six of those.
Then there's the problem of the strength of schedule. To be honest, SoS is way overblown at this point of the season. A team finessing its way through an easy flower garden usually has several close calls if they're not very good. Clemson only had two, one due to QB injury and the other early in the year on the road in a very tough venue at Kyle Field. However, the SEC does have the edge in the conference match ups this year with a 6-3 record. Of course, 2 of the 3 wins are from Clemson while 2 of the 6 losses are from South Carolina. The problem in this evaluation is that Virginia beat South Carolina with greater ease than Clemson and nobody in his right mind thinks UVA is better than the Tigers.
The teams have nearly the same number of penalties but Alabama's have been more severe, losing nearly 100 yards more. Clemson is plus 3 in the turnover margin for the year, Alabama is plus 8.
But then there's the question of the Clemson secondary as well as the Alabama secondary.
If you throw out the obvious anomaly with Oklahoma, the team that had the most success against Alabama in 2018 was Georgia. What did Georgia do?
They threw the ball 40 times, completing 25 - for 301 yards.
They rushed the ball 39 times for 153 yards.
In short, Georgia had an almost perfect mix of runs and passes and owned Alabama for most of the afternoon. Of course, Alabama's performance was hampered by an injury to Tua and a poorly thrown ball on the first possession that had the effect of losing 7 points. Georgia kept the ball for 35 minutes. Clemson's running game is better than Georgia's statistically. Clemson's passing offense is also substantially better than Georgia's.
The catch, of course, is Tua is not hobbling as he was in the UGA game.
The team that came closest to beating Clemson, of course, was Texas A/M. What did the Aggies do? Kellen Mond had a field day throwing the ball. Indeed, were it not for two Aggie turnovers, they would have won. While it is correct to not draw too much from Clemson's OFFENSE from that game, the fact Lawrence or Bryant wasn't the sole starter really has nothing to do with the defense giving up 430 yards passing to a guy who AVERAGED 223 ypg passing in his OTHER games.
And that - I believe is going to be the key arbiter to outcome of the game.
Look over the season:
Ga Tech only threw eight passes thanks to D.A. Baxter's run on all downs approach.
Eric Dungey averaged 217 in his other games but got 250 and nearly beat the Tigers.
Kellen Mond has been covered.
On the flip side, they did quite well against Ryan Finley and Ian Book.
Clemson has faced one passing attack (NC State) statistically close to Alabama and manhandled them while surrendering a lot to two others. Alabama has faced three passing offenses better than Clemson (Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Mizzou) and manhandled two while containing the third.
The key to the game is the Clemson running attack. If they can rush for more than 150 yards, the Tigers will win the game.
PREDICTION
Alabama 30 (with a missed PAT)
Clemson 28
