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2019 Federal government shut down and the wall

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TIDE-HSV

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twofbyc said:
I see posts about “undecided” voters; undecided about what?
Voters aren’t undecided about Trump; not from any poll I’ve seen, in any number that isn’t almost totally insignificant.
I don’t think they’re undecided about anything right now; “divided” , maybe.
Republicans own this hostage taking, McConnell has shown he’s been neutered by Trump, Dems are still floundering around trying to see how they can come out ahead on this...while Rome burns.
Maybe substituting “ Independent “ for undecided might be more accurate, since those numbers are growing and the partisan bases of both parties seem to be firmly entrenched.



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Although there's overlap, I think they're two different groups. There is a large group of independents, among whom I count myself. I contributed to three campaigns - and displayed yard signs - for two Republicans and one Democrat, this past year. However, when it comes to Trump, I'm far from undecided, as anyone who's followed my posting here can see. 2020, IMO, will be decided mainly by two factors. For one, how many independents will vote again for Trump. Obviously, he didn't win solely with his base; not enough of them. Independents voted in droves for "change," disaffection with politicians, etc. At this point, I think he's lost most of them, and he losing more every day with the shutdown. To some degree, this is offset by the power of incumbency. The other factor is whether or not the Democratic nominee is attractive enough to motivate that base, particularly minorities, which didn't happen in 2016.

Further, I think that, if Trump loses, it will be because he failed to govern more from the center. It's time-honored in politics to do that. Your base will grit their collective teeth and vote for you. He has governed solely for his base. It will be interesting to see if it works. It may, if the shutdown doesn't do too much damage, like tip us into a recession, when combined with his 19th century economics, and the economy can stay artificially pumped-up until 2020...
 
CharminTide

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Poll: Shutdown, Russia drive Trump to all-time high disapproval

Nearly 6-in-10 voters — 57 percent — disapprove of Trump's job performance, compared to the 40 percent that approve. In addition, 54 percent of voters blame Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill for the government shutdown. Only 35 percent blame congressional Democrats...

Only 7 percent of voters said that they support dedicating funding to a border wall if it was the only way to end the government shutdown. That’s compared to 72 percent who oppose dedicating funding to a border wall if it was the only way.
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Bazza

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CharminTide said:
And why can't Trump and the GOP use this opportunity to "gain points with undecided voters" by either (1) signing the compromise bill that has passed both the House and Senate, or (2) re-opening the government now and negotiating on border security without holding federal workers hostage (which Trump had admitted that he's intentionally doing)?

The fact that you never suggest this make your allegiance pretty clear.
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Wrong. I like unconventional warfare in politics. I like unconventional thinking.

A concept lost among certain populations, I know.
 
CharminTide

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Trump is just so bad at this game.

House Democrats to offer Trump higher border security spending — but no wall

House Democrats are prepared to support new levels of border security funding, but not a wall, if President Trump agrees to reopen the government first, lawmakers and aides said Wednesday.

The proposal, which Democrats plan to put into a formal letter to Trump, will include border security improvements such as retrofitting ports of entry, new sensors and drones, more immigration judges and border patrol agents, and additional technology, among other measures.

The letter was not final and the exact figure Democrats will suggest was not yet determined, but aides said it would be higher than the levels Democrats have supported in the past, which have ranged from $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion. Some Democrats suggested they would even be willing to meet Trump’s request for $5.7 billion — as long as it goes for technology and other improvements, not the physical wall the president is seeking.

“If you look at all of the things that we’re proposing — more judges, more border patrol, this new technology — these are the kinds of things that we are gong to be putting forward, and I think that they can be done using the figure that the president has put on the table,” House Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) told reporters Wednesday. “If his $5.7 billion is about border security, then we see ourselves fulfilling that request, only doing it through what I like to call using a ‘smart wall’,” Clyburn said.
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CharminTide

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Let me just predict the next few weeks:

1. Pelosi refuses to allow a SOTU while the government is shut down.
2. McConnell (finally) permits a vote on a House CR that reopens the government for two weeks, but without wall or even border security funding.
3. It passes, Trump gives his SOTU, thinks he won.
4. CR runs out and we're back here once again.
5. Dems reinforce that all Trump's bluster about the pains of a shutdown being "for the good of the country" was just flippantly traded for an hour of TV time and nothing else.
6. Trump bleeds even more support as he tries the same routine on an audience that's already seen behind the curtain.
7. GOP eventually caves to pressure and overrides Trump's veto, party fractures and becomes even less effective.

tl;dr Trump thinks he's Tywin, is actually Joffrey. Pelosi is a shockingly effective mixture of Cersei and Tyrion. Schumer is, I dunno, Podrick.
 
92tide

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CharminTide said:
Let me just predict the next few weeks:

1. Pelosi refuses to allow a SOTU while the government is shut down.
2. McConnell (finally) permits a vote on a House CR that reopens the government for two weeks, but without wall or even border security funding.
3. It passes, Trump gives his SOTU, thinks he won.
4. CR runs out and we're back here once again.
5. Dems reinforce that all Trump's bluster about the pains of a shutdown being "for the good of the country" was just flippantly traded for an hour of TV time and nothing else.
6. Trump bleeds even more support as he tries the same routine on an audience that's already seen behind the curtain.
7. GOP eventually caves to pressure and overrides Trump's veto, party fractures and becomes even less effective.

tl;dr Trump thinks he's Tywin, is actually Joffrey. Pelosi is a shockingly effective mixture of Cersei and Tyrion. Schumer is, I dunno, Podrick.
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i've got one to add

8. endless hand-wringing while worrying about who the dems will nominate
 
DzynKingRTR

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CharminTide said:
tl;dr Trump thinks he's Tywin, is actually Joffrey. Pelosi is a shockingly effective mixture of Cersei and Tyrion. Schumer is, I dunno, Podrick.
Click to expand...
so you think Pelosi will bang her own brother and will kill an entire village that is against her to gain power and is a dwarf outcast that will kill her own father? Sounds about right.
 
C

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Bazza said:
Whether you agree with the premise here or not.....it's an interesting perspective......

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=639528253168520
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A more interesting perspective is the one that is conveniently forgotten in all of this where the Republicans had the presidency, congress and senate for two years and did nothing on building a physical wall. Yet once the Democrats had the majority in the house, and could be used as an attempted foil, did the wall become a priority.

Giving Trump the wall at this point, when it could have been achieved without compromise with the Democrats for the past two years, would be terribly stupid. This is yet another manufactured crisis that is par for the course on many dog whistle issues coming from the right. You can’t engender irrational hate and fear unless you have a villain. Without the Dems controlling at least one branch of the legislative or executive, there is no boogeyman except for themselves. Say what you will, Republicans understand their base. Trump essentially said that he would own the shutdown, would be glad to have a shutdown, yet now it is the Democrats who need to “grow up and negotiate” in the eyes his supporters.
 
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