Predicting a championship: 1000-yard rusher

rgw · Jan 19, 2019

Leading Rusher by Season

2007: Terry Grant, 891 yards
2008: Glenn Coffee, 1347 yards
2009: Mark Ingram, 1658 yards
2010: Mark Ingram, 816 yards
2011: Trent Richardson, 1583 yards
2012: Eddie Lacy, 1322 yards
2013: TJ Yeldon, 1163 yards
2014: TJ Yeldon, 932 yards
2015: Derrick Henry, 1986 yards
2016: Damien Harris, 986 yards
2017: Damien Harris, 1000 yards
2018: Damien Harris, 876 yards

Only twice in the seasons where Alabama didn't win the national championship (oh the humanity!) did a rusher eclipse the 1000 yard mark. In the CFP era, we have lost in the playoffs each time where we failed to produce a 1000-yard rusher.

Is it time for the fanbase to strike the RTDB banners for 2019? I think so. Najee Harris should be our star of the offense next year if we want to win the national title. If that is the case then our #1 overall pick QB will pick people apart in the games that matter.

KrAzY3 · Jan 19, 2019

During the 2017 season I started highlighting how a dominant running back was actually more important to Alabama's success than a highly rated quarterback (the best seasons by Alabama quarterbacks don't always end in championships, see 2013 AJ, 2014 Blake Sims and this year's Tua), the best seasons by Alabama running backs did. It's no coincidence that great passing does coincide with a less dominant running game. The more you throw, the less you run...

It isn't quite that simple though, I'd argue the type of running back is a factor to. You'll notice Damien Harris was the lead rusher two years Alabama didn't win, and TJ was the lead rusher in two years that Alabama didn't win. Though both are obviously talented, NFL caliber backs, neither were the Ingram/Richardson/Henry dominate a game physically type of runner.

So what's the key? A strong physical back that gets enough carries. Just look at Alabama trying to manage the red zone in the championship game, they didn't have that established physical running game to turn to when they needed it most. I'd add that I'm not saying you don't want good quarterback play, obviously you do. But you don't want to have to put the game in the hands of the quarterback.

CajunCrimson · Jan 19, 2019

rgw said:
Leading Rusher by Season

2007: Terry Grant, 891 yards
2008: Glenn Coffee, 1347 yards
2009: Mark Ingram, 1658 yards
2010: Mark Ingram, 816 yards
2011: Trent Richardson, 1583 yards
2012: Eddie Lacy, 1322 yards
2013: TJ Yeldon, 1163 yards
2014: TJ Yeldon, 932 yards
2015: Derrick Henry, 1986 yards
2016: Damien Harris, 986 yards
2017: Damien Harris, 1000 yards
2018: Damien Harris, 876 yards

Only twice in the seasons where Alabama didn't win the national championship (oh the humanity!) did a rusher eclipse the 1000 yard mark. In the CFP era, we have lost in the playoffs each time where we failed to produce a 1000-yard rusher.

Is it time for the fanbase to strike the RTDB banners for 2019? I think so. Najee Harris should be our star of the offense next year if we want to win the national title. If that is the case then our #1 overall pick QB will pick people apart in the games that matter.

Football has changed so much lately. We didn't lose the NC because we didn't have a 1000 yard rusher. Rushing was the one thing we did really well in that game. Otherwise all games (other that UGA) we had dominated everyone.

Don't think we need a 1000 yard rusher. We do need to be prepared for a championship game next time --

rgw · Jan 19, 2019

Well part of the reason I think we should be more run focused is due to Najee and Brian Robinson being the type of backs you can build a power run offense around successfully.

D. Harris and TJ Yeldon are fine backs but they were probably the two least imposing runners we’ve had as primary ball carriers. They’re 3rd down backs in the NFL, basically.

RTR91 · Jan 19, 2019

Harris had 1,037 yards in 2016.

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rgw · Jan 19, 2019

RTR91 said:
Harris had 1,037 yards in 2016.

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You're correct...maybe? ESPN has a weird bug in their new statistics UI. It shows up as 986 on the team stats page but shows 1040 if you click on Damien Harris's player stats page

RTR91 · Jan 19, 2019

rgw said:
You're correct...maybe? ESPN has a weird bug in their new statistics UI. It shows up as 986 on the team stats page but shows 1040 if you click on Damien Harris's player stats page

There’s something wrong because I’ve seen similar problems in recent weeks.

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bamamick · Jan 19, 2019

Heard this being discussed yesterday on local radio, that Najee was more likely to be a feature back next year than what we have been seeing.

Rtr

Bama-94-00 · Jan 19, 2019

Having a dominate rusher means your line does more run blocking and should be better in short yardage situations. Bama was just average in short yardage this past season due to big plays passing and less chances/less need for sustained drives.

TideFan in AU · Jan 19, 2019

I'm not sure Damien's comparison to TJ is a fair one. He was never given the opportunity to take a game over. In fact, he would often seem to getting into a rhythm and get pulled out of the game. He ended his career with a higher YPC than anybody except Eddie Lacy and had over 100 less carries than Henry and Ingram and 70 less than Richardson in 4 years than those guy did in 3 years. Rarely ever did Damien ever get a lot of carries in games that were still in question against tiring defenses like the other guys did. 2 of his years he watched Jalen take a lot of carries and this year he was in a 3 player rotation that didn't allow anybody any real numbers.

That said, I can't say I'm excited about seeing Najee be the guy next year. He averaged 6.7 YPC this year, which is better than any RB we've had in the Saban era with over 100 carries in a season.

PA Tide Fan · Jan 19, 2019

Very interesting stat. Looking at Clemson's two championship wins against us in 2016 Clemson had Wayne Gallman rush for 1133 yards during the season and the season we just completed had Travis Etienne rush for 1658 yards.

rgw · Jan 19, 2019

I think Damien Harris had issues with endurance/stamina. He really couldn't sustain speed like some of our other backs which led to him getting chased down on some breakout runs where he ought to have made it to the endzone. He got chased down from behind against Citadel this year. It was definitely a thing. He seemed to get banged up as the season wore on, so durability was possibly a rotational concern for the staff too. Two of the three seasons where he was the starter ended with the guy behind him getting more snaps than him in most games by the end of the season (Bo in 2016 and Jacobs in 2018).

SkullDuckery · Jan 19, 2019

A healthy Bo in 2016 equals a championship. It was clear Harris could not produce like Bo did against Clemson.

teamplayer · Jan 19, 2019

CajunCrimson said:
Football has changed so much lately. We didn't lose the NC because we didn't have a 1000 yard rusher. Rushing was the one thing we did really well in that game. Otherwise all games (other that UGA) we had dominated everyone.

Don't think we need a 1000 yard rusher. We do need to be prepared for a championship game next time --

Sure, we ran well between the 20s, but there were multiple situations where picking up a yard or two in the red zone could have made that a completely different game. I'm not saying we have to have a 1,000 yard rusher, but I do hope we put more bash and less flash in our offense next year.
More Bash/Less Flash
That would make a good t-shirt.

rgw · Jan 19, 2019

2013, 2014, and 2018 had a problem with getting a tough yard in situational offense.

CoastGhost · Jan 19, 2019

teamplayer said:
Sure, we ran well between the 20s, but there were multiple situations where picking up a yard or two in the red zone could have made that a completely different game. I'm not saying we have to have a 1,000 yard rusher, but I do hope we put more bash and less flash in our offense next year.
More Bash/Less Flash
That would make a good t-shirt.

I don't recall us giving the run much of an opportunity inside the 20, maybe just a poor memory.

CoachJeff · Jan 19, 2019

SkullDuckery said:
A healthy Bo in 2016 equals a championship. It was clear Harris could not produce like Bo did against Clemson.

That’s not true.

Are you Steve Sarkisian? He certainly thought that. That’s why he abandoned the run and cost Bama the 2016 title.

deliveryman35 · Jan 19, 2019

I think Trey Sanders will rush for 1000 yds before Najee Harris does. Outside of that, I agree with the basic premise of the thread. We perform best when we’ve had a bruising, down-hill runner like Ingram, Richardson, and Henry.

TideFan in AU · Jan 19, 2019

deliveryman35 said:
I think Trey Sanders will rush for 1000 yds before Najee Harris does. Outside of that, I agree with the basic premise of the thread. We perform best when we’ve had a bruising, down-hill runner like Ingram, Richardson, and Henry.

Najee rushed for 783 yards on only 118 carries this year. That's less than 8 carries a game and 6.7 YPC. I'm thinking he might be able squeak out 1000 next year.

teamplayer · Jan 19, 2019

CoastGhost said:
I don't recall us giving the run much of an opportunity inside the 20, maybe just a poor memory.

Yeah, they stuffed us on several short yardage situations inside the 20.

Predicting a championship: 1000-yard rusher

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