Politics: 2020 Dem POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

uafanataum said:

I am actually starting to give up on my candidate ( Butigieg). There is no way I see him winning the south so my hope was him doing well in the first few states to give him momentum. Based on the most recent poll he will come on 3rd or fourth place in Iowa. Its a real shame. I will not vote for Sanders and really do not want Biden to win either.

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If either is the DNC candidate vs. Trump, would you decide to sit out the election?

B1GTide said:

If either is the DNC candidate vs. Trump, would you decide to sit out the election?

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No. I will hold my nose I guess. I actually voted third party during the last election because I was against both major candidates. I was referring to the primary though. I originally planned to vote Butigieg. If he is in 4th place heading into Alabama though I am not sure I will. I will vote for any of the top candidates before Sanders in the primary though.

uafanataum said:

I am actually starting to give up on my candidate ( Butigieg). There is no way I see him winning the south so my hope was him doing well in the first few states to give him momentum. Based on the most recent poll he will come on 3rd or fourth place in Iowa. Its a real shame. I will not vote for Sanders and really do not want Biden to win either.

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I like him too.

Maybe @CharminTide will give us his thoughts on Mayor Pete's chances going forward.......

I wouldn’t put too much weight on minor polling movements right now. Iowa is a three way tie right now between Sanders, Biden, and Buttigieg, and I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them wins it. But Pete has consistently been pulling in the biggest crowds there, and he’s doing another primetime Fox News town hall there this weekend to reach the rural crowd that only watches one channel. He does much better with older voters than Sanders, and they tend to be a more reliable demographic.

I wouldn’t write him off so quickly.

B1GTide said:

Hillary Clinton started that and Gabbard is suing her for $50MM as a result. I hope that she wins.

Hillary is toxic and she is the reason that Trump is in office. She may well be the reason that he gets reelected. She is determined to run the DNC, and destroy anyone who she doesn't like. She is the Trump of the DNC.

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CharminTide said:

I wouldn’t put too much weight on minor polling movements right now. Iowa is a three way tie right now between Sanders, Biden, and Buttigieg, and I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them wins it. But Pete has consistently been pulling in the biggest crowds there, and he’s doing another primetime Fox News town hall there this weekend to reach the rural crowd that only watches one channel. He does much better with older voters than Sanders, and they tend to be a more reliable demographic.

I wouldn’t write him off so quickly.

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Well if he does well the first few primaries then I am voting for him. I doubt it will matter much in alabama but who knows.

The Pete campaign strategy seems to have been an all-in push on Iowa where he probably would naturally poll better so the early win in Iowa could give momentum.

Iowa is a very weird state both electorally and population wise. The caucus system makes "solid voters" and "2nd preference voters" a more important metric than simply a poll. Their electoral structure allows for a bit more movement than pure private ballot counting.

If Pete doesn't win this, he's cooked. He is not even polling as a viable candidate in some of the proceeding states leading up to Super Tuesday.

I don't think his problem with people 40 and under is because of homophobia. I think it is because he's a 30something with the politics of a boomer.

His problem with 40+ may very well be tacit or even explicit homophobia.

crimsonaudio said:

-snip-

But he's young. This isn't the last we'll see from him.

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Bazza said:

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You prefer old, orange men with a monster combover?

rgw said:

The Pete campaign strategy seems to have been an all-in push on Iowa where he probably would naturally poll better so the early win in Iowa could give momentum.

Iowa is a very weird state both electorally and population wise. The caucus system makes "solid voters" and "2nd preference voters" a more important metric than simply a poll. Their electoral structure allows for a bit more movement than pure private ballot counting.

If Pete doesn't win this, he's cooked. He is not even polling as a viable candidate in some of the proceeding states leading up to Super Tuesday.

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Apart from Biden and Sanders, anyone who doesn't win either IA or NH is done. Everyone else will need the bump in national recognition in order to contend.

Edit: Actually, let me be a little more nuanced.

Sanders is surging because he's consolidating leftist support from Warren. The moderate support is split between Biden, Pete, and Amy. If Sanders comes in first and one of those three moderates comes in second, they may start to consolidate support for later states. Right now the wide field benefits Sanders, and he's attacked Warren at exactly the right time. But if the field narrows and it's Sanders vs. one moderate, he'll have a more difficult time.

CharminTide said:

Right now the wide field benefits Sanders, and he's attacked Warren at exactly the right time.

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Forgive me but I think it is more accurate to say Warren is the one who launched the attack and it backfired. Warren was always a concession candidate for progressive who don't believe it is possible to win without conceding some to the center. Her backtracking on M4A combined with the incredibly unbelievable attack on Sanders that obviously traced back to her own mouth irreparably damaged her progressive credentials. Her campaign is a dead candidacy walking and likely to mostly benefit Sanders as progressive leaning voters have nowhere else to go.

I get the feeling this is going to come down to Biden/Buttigieg v. Sanders depending on Iowa. If Biden pulls under 15% in Iowa, he's in trouble too. Amy Klobuchar was not polling any better Andrew Yang before the mealy-mouthed girl power NYT endorsement. The only reason she's getting attention is the realization that Warren is sinking and they need someone who can get the single-issue women identity voters.

Bamaro said:

That's a sad but maybe correct assessment of our ridiculous primary system.

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I would have a lot more faith in the system if the nomination process actually made sense. Imagine a process by which we chose a governor based on who the people in Cullman County wanted.

Who wins the South wins the nomination. That’s why Sanders doesn’t have a chance in hell unless Warren gets out quick (which she won’t). Biden is probably going to win this by Super Tuesday.

81usaf92 said:

Who wins the South wins the nomination. That’s why Sanders doesn’t have a chance in hell unless Warren gets out quick (which she won’t). Biden is probably going to win this by Super Tuesday.

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I agree, but Bloomberg is throwing a wrench into all of that. We really have no idea how he will do.