I think Bloomberg is going to hurt Sanders and Warren in the MW and NE to the point that can’t win. Biden should sweep the south and coast to the nomination especially with the lion share of Super delegates.
Politics: 2020 Dem POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread
- Thread starter Bamaro
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You are guessing - we are all guessing. He has a ton of $$$, and that can swing votes amazingly fast.
From what I've gathered, not nearly as much as you'd think. The primary systems are kinda rigged to near undemocratic which is the real threat to Sanders.
Letting the conservative tail wag the progressive dog would be disaster for the DNP. That disaster is a continuation of the last 40 or more years of center to right of center Dem leadership that cannot repel the pull rightward from the increasingly radicalized GOP.
Letting the conservative tail wag the progressive dog would be disaster for the DNP. That disaster is a continuation of the last 40 or more years of center to right of center Dem leadership that cannot repel the pull rightward from the increasingly radicalized GOP.
The South and Mid Atlantic decide primaries while the Midwest picks corn and freezes in the cold. There are more delegates up for grabs in Alabama, Georgia, and Florida than nearly the entire Mid west combined.
The progressives can tout the Mid and Pacific West’s all they want, but doing so ignores the game’s strategy.
The progressives can tout the Mid and Pacific West’s all they want, but doing so ignores the game’s strategy.
Two things are certain - it takes a continuous flow of $$$ into a campaign to keep it going, and the only way to keep the money coming in is for the voters to believe the candidate has a chance of winning.
What does that mean? If a candidate has a large enough bank roll (talking HUGE here), he/she can withstand losses in Iowa and New Hampshire as long as they are close. But by the time the 3rd and 4th primaries (NV & SC) are over, you have your field established. Super Tuesday costs a fortune. 15 primaries across a huge geography means candidates who did not do well in the first 4 weeks are already out of money - or drained so much that they cannot afford Super Tuesday.
So, yeah, 4 states winnow the field. Only a few candidates will be left on March 1st, and we will already know who is running against Trump before March 3rd.
It is really impressive that people continue to insist the pull of the center can effectively repel the increasingly radicalized right in the US. I have a theory why this is the case. It is better to say something plainly false by the prior 50+ years of evidence but insist it will be different this time than just admit you're basically fine with the unjust order of things but don't like that a dumb, brutish, non-smooth operator is the president. A lot of stuff Trump has taken the most crap over have existed to some extent for several presidencies. The problem isn't what America is doing to asylum seekers, foreign countries, people in need of social welfare, etc...the problem is Aaron Sorkin's President isn't the one in charge of doing it. My feel for people over 40 - at least the ones that actually vote (mostly top 10% income earners) - is that what they want most from the political theater is the consent to feel okay in their relative comfort despite a realization of just how that sausage is made. The GOP is too naked with that process and it makes that 40+ centrist feel uncomfortable with themselves. They just want to know it is okay for them to keep on doing and voting for the things that will destroy this country and the planet (for humanity at least) but will let them ride off into the sunset.
Bernie would've been more likely to beat Trump in 2016 than Hillary Clinton. He certainly would not have lost the entire Rust Belt to Trump.
I think that your information is flawed. I checked a few sources, and this is what I find of people who answer:
All Americans - 48% left of center, 39% right of center, 11% in the center
Millennials - 54% left, 33% right, 12% center
Gen X - 48% left, 37% right, 13% center
Boomers - 44% left, 44% right, 9% center
Those older than Boomers - 41% left, 48% right, center 8%
So, the harsh reality - only the very old are a conservative majority. The vast majority of Americans consider themselves to be left of center.
You have to get those people out to vote, and the younger you are, the less likely you are to vote. Get the lazy youth of America off their bums and into the poll booths
I think the conundrum there is the self-identification problem. I know plenty of people who say they're as left as they come but when you interrogate their beliefs they're just not particularly left.
I'd say I'm just about the only actual leftist that posts on this board. Anyone who wants Bloomberg, Biden, or Buttigieg as president ain't no damn leftist. Lol
I'd say I'm just about the only actual leftist that posts on this board. Anyone who wants Bloomberg, Biden, or Buttigieg as president ain't no damn leftist. Lol
Maybe you just don't understand how broad a range politics encompasses. I agree that Bloomberg and Biden are centrists, not progressives - they clearly are not conservatives, but either could have success in the GOP in the right states. The others would never be accepted by the GOP.
Then again, you are a democratic socialist, so maybe no one is far enough left?
DemSoc's are not even that particularly far left. Probably more analogous to something like Britain Labour Party at their height of power in postwar era.
I think the center is a dead end for stopping the GOP from turning this country into fascist state that will ultimately get "dealt with" by the rest of the world.
I think the center is a dead end for stopping the GOP from turning this country into fascist state that will ultimately get "dealt with" by the rest of the world.
If Russia and China have not been "dealt with", the US certainly will not be. They have been running openly fascist governments for a long, long time.
And, yes, Democratic Socialist are way left of center.
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Not trying to argue semantics but:
The Midwest, as defined by the federal government, comprises the states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
Very well let’s make another attempt with that In mind. Take areas in the MW in which Bernie is doesn’t not a chance in hell in winning (Ohio and Illinois), and the combination of Florida, Alabama, and Georgia offset or trump all of the MW with a lot more states to spare in which Bernie is going to get slammed in
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