Politics: 2020 Dem POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread - Page 111
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  1. #1431
    BamaNation Hall of Fame 81usaf92's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Dem POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by CharminTide View Post
    538 Iowa analysis shows the narrative that Sanders would've carried (and thus can carry) the midwest is dubious at best. White midwestern voters prefer (1) Warren, followed closely by (2) Harris and Buttigieg. Since these are supposed to be "his" people, that's a bad sign for Bernie.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...siasm-problem/
    What is the saying? "Iowa picks corn while New Hampshire picks Presidents". The thing with the midwest is mostly what one considers the midwest. Do you consider everything north of oklahoma, everything west of illinois, and everything east of Utah? or do you lump illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, Missouri, and Michigan in there too? Alot of Bernie fanatics keep on saying he does well in the MW because of his Iowa, Nebraska, and Colorado numbers, but fail to realize that the MW as a whole is far more centrist than leftist. Strong numbers in a small region of small states dont negate delegates won in Milwaulkee, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, St Louis, and Kansas City who vote far more like the Southeast and Northeast than they do like the Pacific West.
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  2. #1432

    Re: 2020 Dem POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by CharminTide View Post
    Gillibrand drops out.
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  3. #1433
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    Re: 2020 Dem POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 81usaf92 View Post
    What is the saying? "Iowa picks corn while New Hampshire picks Presidents". The thing with the midwest is mostly what one considers the midwest. Do you consider everything north of oklahoma, everything west of illinois, and everything east of Utah? or do you lump illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, Missouri, and Michigan in there too? Alot of Bernie fanatics keep on saying he does well in the MW because of his Iowa, Nebraska, and Colorado numbers, but fail to realize that the MW as a whole is far more centrist than leftist. Strong numbers in a small region of small states dont negate delegates won in Milwaulkee, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, St Louis, and Kansas City who vote far more like the Southeast and Northeast than they do like the Pacific West.




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  4. #1434
    BamaNation Hall of Fame 81usaf92's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Dem POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Go Bama View Post




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    Here is the reason progressives and Bernites should just toss the MW strategy. In an one on one primary like 2016, with two political polar opposites (in terms of party), you should run away with the regions you are said to be strong in.





    While 7 to 5 looks great, you have to look at two things.

    1) this isn't the EC, this is the primary voting process in which winning is based on delegates, and delegates won is determined by population and percentage of the votes. Point is Sanders won 38 delegates in Nebraska and Kansas combined for taking nearly 65% of the vote, but Clinton taking just Alabama gave her 53. If you really want to see how worthless this strategy is, Bernie took 415 delegates from the Midwest (22% of his entire delegate count) while Hillary took 141 delegates from Florida (5% of her entire delegate count) for taking 64% of the vote. Basically Hillary was losing by 1-2 percent in most of MW losses in highly populated areas and just trouncing him in the SE, MATL, Texas, and much of the NE.


    2) any advantage the progressives seem to have in the MW is going to be split between Sanders and Warren, while establishment candidates are probably going to get the numbers they expect.


    More or less to win, Sanders is going to have to stop acting like the MW is this valuable item just because Nebraska and Kansas people believe he is the smartest guy on the planet.
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    Re: 2020 Dem POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread


  6. #1436
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    Re: 2020 Dem POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 81usaf92 View Post
    What is the saying? "Iowa picks corn while New Hampshire picks Presidents". The thing with the midwest is mostly what one considers the midwest. Do you consider everything north of oklahoma, everything west of illinois, and everything east of Utah? or do you lump illinois, Wisconsin, Ohio, Missouri, and Michigan in there too? Alot of Bernie fanatics keep on saying he does well in the MW because of his Iowa, Nebraska, and Colorado numbers, but fail to realize that the MW as a whole is far more centrist than leftist. Strong numbers in a small region of small states dont negate delegates won in Milwaulkee, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, St Louis, and Kansas City who vote far more like the Southeast and Northeast than they do like the Pacific West.
    Bernie did well in IA and NE because those were caucus states.

    The caucuses are the most undemocratic process I can think of....save for the Electoral College.

    I participated in the NE caucuses and my impression was that it's organized chaos. Far from being anything close to a democratic process. Just a bunch of yelling and rabble-rousing. Most people in NE didn't understand the process, and stayed home. Which left room for the Free Stuffers to drown out any semblance of a free and fair assembly.

    NE dropped the caucuses for 2020. Thank Allah.

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