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Politics: 2020 Dem POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

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CharminTide

CharminTide

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Well Iowa’s new app was a disaster.

Bernie is projecting confidence, and Buttigieg is claiming that he won the most state delegates (based on reports from their respective precinct captains who have the results). Meanwhile, we still wait for actual numbers.
 
CharminTide

CharminTide

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Well Pete is claiming victory in emails and on twitter and no other campaign is really contradicting him, so I'll just post the "victory" speech while we wait for confirmation.

 
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92tide

92tide

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81usaf92 said:
Look it may be that gem from yesterday about making the Soviet United States of America, me being sick, or maybe just watching the Super Halftime so I may be a little slow.... but are we really trying to equate Trump’s election tampering to the DNC’s super delegates and rules?!?! Because if we are then we are in serious denial or trouble because they are even remotely close to the same thing.
Click to expand...
"we" aren't, certain people are.
 
CharminTide

CharminTide

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Lots of pundits hating on the caucus system last night and today. The benefit of the caucus system is that it mimics ranked choice voting. If you support a nonviable candidate, you're forced to realign. IMO, that's pretty important in a field of 11 candidates. Otherwise a very polarizing candidate with a dedicated base (like Sanders) has a distinct advantage over a unifying candidate (like Buttigieg). And selecting the latter is very, very important to party viability.

That said, you could just institute ranked choice voting and get 90% of the benefit with 0% of the hassle. If Iowa's caucus does get replaced, I hope it's not with a simple/traditional ballot.
 
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CharminTide

CharminTide

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Sanders might have caught a big break with this reporting delay.

1. He was a perceived lock and he doesn't appear to have won.

2. Sanders did quite poorly among women and voters over 45. That's been a consistent feature of his polling, so no surprise. Folks talk about POC being important to the Democratic party, but so are women and so are older, reliable voters. And that trend crosses racial lines. That's incredibly dangerous, and makes him one of the weaker general election candidates.

3. Based on the limited data we have, Sanders had arguably the worst showing of second alignments compared to first (of major candidates), meaning he cannot effectively unite the party.

4. Sanders' entire electability argument is that he doesn't need to win over moderates or independents because they're going to turn out so many new disenfranchised voters, and that simply didn't happen. Numbers were consistent with 2016 and way, way down from 2008.
 
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chanson78

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I stayed up pretty late hoping that Iowa would quit tripping over itself.

I think there are a few things we learned from last night.

1. Way more people have an idea of what a caucus is.
2. There is one less software company in the world.
...
3. Trump Fans now have a new DNC conspiracy
 
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NationalTitles18

NationalTitles18

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CharminTide said:
Sanders might have caught a big break with this reporting delay.

1. He was a perceived lock and he doesn't appear to have won.

2. Sanders did quite poorly among women and voters over 45. That's been a consistent feature of his polling, so no surprise. Folks talk about POC being important to the Democratic party, but so are women and so are older, reliable voters. And that trend crosses racial lines. That's incredibly dangerous, and makes him one of the weaker general election candidates.

3. Based on the limited data we have, Sanders had arguably the worst showing of second alignments compared to first (of major candidates), meaning he cannot effectively unite the party.

4. Sanders' entire electability argument is that he doesn't need to win over moderates or independents because they're going to turn out so many new disenfranchised voters, and that simply didn't happen. Numbers were consistent with 2016 and way, way down from 2008.
Click to expand...
Sanders is the only one that has a chance and anyway he's the only worthy candidate.
 
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B1GTide

B1GTide

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I find it very hard to believe that the application had the kind of issues reported early this morning. They suggest that people were able to log in to report results in their districts, and that there were no problems there, but that the results were not tabulating properly. If this is true, a developer with 5 minutes of experience could have found and corrected the problematic formula and fixed the problem.

I don't know what happened, but I don't trust what they are saying right now. Sounds like they have a totally broken app that was not properly tested - though how that could happen in this era is beyond me. I believe that the issue is DNC incompetence, and no matter how this sorts itself out, that is a huge win for Trump as this process gets under way. HUGE WIN
 
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B1GTide

B1GTide

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The primary system is the reason that so many incumbent presidents get reelected. While one party rips itself apart, they other party unifies behind their guy. While one party spends money fighting among themselves to win a nomination, the other party spends all of its money trying to win the election.

The only presidents elected to office who lost in an attempt to get reelected in our lifetime - Carter and Bush Sr. Both were dealing with economic recessions during the election process, and our economy is decidedly not in a recession.

The DNC needs to get its act together. They already had a very steep hill to climb, and this makes it steeper. People are not talking about the impeachment today - they are talking about the train wreck in Iowa.
 
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