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  1. #27
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    Re: 2020 Rep POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    I said this in some other thread, but there is no way that trump doesn't run for re-election. If he announced he was not going to seek re-election the SDNY would not have enough paper to print indictments and subpoenas for him and his children.
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  2. #28
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    Re: 2020 Rep POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by selmaborntidefan View Post
    We already have a dead man in the White House.
    Crane’s sex life made Trump look like a virgin.


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  3. #29
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    Re: 2020 Rep POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by selmaborntidefan View Post
    You want to know what's more likely?

    Trump trailing in the polls a week before the election and then announcing he's withdrawing because "the game is rigged."

    I fully expected that to happen last time. Everyone be honest - would it have surprised you if Trump withdrew on the Sunday before the election and THEN announced that he and Hillary had cooked up the whole thing to clear her path to the White House? (I'm not saying this would have been or was true - I'm saying him claiming it should not surprise anyone).


    Trump is not Bob Dole or Walter Mondale or Barry Goldwater. Those men - whatever their flaws - knew they were going to lose, but they understood that they had an obligation to the Congressional supporters and the party that nominated them to fake it and act like they thought they had a chance and to minimize damage down ballot.

    Donald Trump has zero loyalty to anyone, including any of his wives. He's the kind of guy that would quit and blame a rigged game, make up an absolutely insane charge against the opponent - and then demand his Justice Dept investigate the "fraud perpetrated on the American people."

    I think Trump runs and - and I take no joy in this - he's the odds on favorite right now. The economy is booming, and we are not in a shooting war with body bags coming home. Sure, you can call Trump a liar (accurately) but guess what? People are people - and how long do you think it's going to take Trump to find a lie(s) his opponent told IF the opponent actually tries that old "I'm the honest person in this race."
    The two considerations that I would add to your analysis are the facts that North Korea is likely to become a bigger more difficult problem. Bolton has been an advocate for war with North Korea and Iran for decades and I am not sure that Trump is in control of that at all.

    With the floods in the Midwest and the loss of grain sales to China the farm belt is not doing well at all economically. Republicans will likely win in the traditional red states but not without doing something to address farmer concerns and right now there is no funding to rebuild the dykes and no agreement with China.

    With his unfavorable ratings would we expect Trump to win Wisconsin or Pennsylvania against Biden? This is the opponent that concerns him the most. If we put Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the blue column then it appears the race is for Florida and it will be close with any of the top polling Democratic candidates. Admittedly Biden is not popular with the progressives here but we will see it play out one way or the other.

    The economy and markets are running on fumes now. Energy prices are already up significantly due to Iran sanctions (A Trump tax in addition to the tariffs and farm penalty) Debt and debt service is enormous levels in all public and private sectors! Can he manage to pump more air into the balloon?

    If he does manage another four years my guess it that he would leave office as one of the most unpopular Presidents (ever?).

  4. #30
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    Re: 2020 Rep POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by UAH View Post

    With the floods in the Midwest and the loss of grain sales to China the farm belt is not doing well at all economically. Republicans will likely win in the traditional red states but not without doing something to address farmer concerns and right now there is no funding to rebuild the dykes and no agreement with China.

    With his unfavorable ratings would we expect Trump to win Wisconsin or Pennsylvania against Biden? This is the opponent that concerns him the most. If we put Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the blue column then it appears the race is for Florida and it will be close with any of the top polling Democratic candidates. Admittedly Biden is not popular with the progressives here but we will see it play out one way or the other.
    But here is the problem with Biden... He will instantly be the favorite amongst the super delegates. You would probably say "what's the problem with that?". The issue is that a huge portion of the excitement within the the democratic base is now leaning toward the Bernie side, and despise mainstreamers like Biden as much as they do conservatives. This is one of my big issues with this huge field of candidates. The mainstreamers are going to unite behind 1 candidate, while the far lefters are going to be choosing between 5-10 different candidates. Once those voters see that Biden leading through the 1st 5 states, and getting help from the SD then they are going to call "foul" instead of blaming all these morons for polluting the ballot. The same Bernie Busters will stay at home again. Does that ensure a Trump victory? No, but it is probably going to be another nail bitter.

    Biden is the best candidate to take down the Don, but picking him is only slightly better than picking Hillary in 2016. I don't have any faith Bernie or Warren could do the job whatsoever, Buttgieg and Kamala I don't think will win anything because of the over populated field, and all the others are not worth mentioning.
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  5. #31
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    Re: 2020 Rep POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by UAH View Post
    The two considerations that I would add to your analysis are the facts that North Korea is likely to become a bigger more difficult problem. Bolton has been an advocate for war with North Korea and Iran for decades and I am not sure that Trump is in control of that at all.
    I'll be blunt - I think Col Bone Spurs is too cowardly to ever actually pull the trigger on anything.

    I'm of course speaking of right now. And as Bush 1991 proved - it's a LONG way to Election Day. By no means would I argue the Democrats have "no chance." Indeed, of the four previous popular vote losers who were President, three lost the next time and the other one narrowly escaped by one state (Ohio).



    Quote Originally Posted by UAH View Post
    With the floods in the Midwest and the loss of grain sales to China the farm belt is not doing well at all economically. Republicans will likely win in the traditional red states but not without doing something to address farmer concerns and right now there is no funding to rebuild the dykes and no agreement with China.
    The average voter doesn't understand this. I'm not arguing at all with your points.

    Quote Originally Posted by UAH View Post
    With his unfavorable ratings would we expect Trump to win Wisconsin or Pennsylvania against Biden? This is the opponent that concerns him the most. If we put Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the blue column then it appears the race is for Florida and it will be close with any of the top polling Democratic candidates. Admittedly Biden is not popular with the progressives here but we will see it play out one way or the other.
    Biden would likely carry PA since he's actually from Scranton. And tbf - Hillary probably could have carried Wisconsin had she, you know, not colluded with the Russians to not go there.


    Quote Originally Posted by UAH View Post
    The economy and markets are running on fumes now. Energy prices are already up significantly due to Iran sanctions (A Trump tax in addition to the tariffs and farm penalty) Debt and debt service is enormous levels in all public and private sectors! Can he manage to pump more air into the balloon?

    If he does manage another four years my guess it that he would leave office as one of the most unpopular Presidents (ever?).
    Well, I don't know any more on that score than anyone else does. I've just seen too many politicians dead to rights who got re-elected.

    Muskie led Nixon in late 1971....and didn't win the nomination.
    Carter led Reagan by 25 in spring 1980.
    Mondale actually led Reagan in October 1983.
    Bush couldn't possibly lose in January 1992.
    Clinton and Dole were tied in October 1995.
    And do I even need to talk about the polls of 2016?

    The thing I'll point out is that this total collapse has to happen before the election to matter. Obama won in large part due to the 2008 market crash in September combined with McCain's inept way of trying to say the crash didn't happen.


    Now - contra 81 - I don't see any kind of landslide simply because this is not the country where that can happen anymore. No candidate has topped 400 EVs since Bush in 1988, and the country was so different then that you have to remember Bush won California AND New Jersey AND Illinois.....none of which Trump has a prayer of winning.
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    Re: 2020 Rep POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by UAH View Post

    If he does manage another four years my guess it that he would leave office as one of the most unpopular Presidents (ever?).

    Let's see.....

    Obama was the worst President ever
    Bush 43 was
    Clinton was
    Reagan was
    Carter was
    Nixon was

    Every single President re-elected to a second term in my lifetime (plus Carter) has been disparaged as "the worst ever" while still in office. For the record, I don't think ANY of these people is the worst ever, though an argument could be made for Nixon and Carter. This country had a series of empty suits in the White House between Andy Jackson and Abe Lincoln, most of whom did nothing to try and prevent the Civil War that we eventually endured.

    Trump MIGHT be the worst ever....or he might not. I will take the phrase that George Will hung on Clinton at the end of his eight years: he was not the worst President we've ever had, but he was the worst human being elected President we ever had.

    I'll throw in with that one on Trump right here and now (as the worst human being).
    My New Year's resolution for 2019 is this year I'm not going to drink anymore. I'm not going to drink any less, either.

    I was married for 25 years, but if I'd killed her on the honeymoon, I'd have been out in less than 20.

    Butch Jones has richly earned his title, The Archbishop of Talentbury

    After reading all the horrible things drinking will do to you....I gave up reading.

  7. #33
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    Re: 2020 Rep POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 81usaf92 View Post
    But here is the problem with Biden... He will instantly be the favorite amongst the super delegates. You would probably say "what's the problem with that?". The issue is that a huge portion of the excitement within the the democratic base is now leaning toward the Bernie side, and despise mainstreamers like Biden as much as they do conservatives. This is one of my big issues with this huge field of candidates. The mainstreamers are going to unite behind 1 candidate, while the far lefters are going to be choosing between 5-10 different candidates. Once those voters see that Biden leading through the 1st 5 states, and getting help from the SD then they are going to call "foul" instead of blaming all these morons for polluting the ballot. The same Bernie Busters will stay at home again. Does that ensure a Trump victory? No, but it is probably going to be another nail bitter.

    Biden is the best candidate to take down the Don, but picking him is only slightly better than picking Hillary in 2016. I don't have any faith Bernie or Warren could do the job whatsoever, Buttgieg and Kamala I don't think will win anything because of the over populated field, and all the others are not worth mentioning.
    Yes. I do see that as a big issue. Voters on the left sitting on their hands or voting for minor third party rather than make the practical step of forming a governing coalition and gaining political clout. This allows someone who lost the popular vote to sit in the WH who basically annihilates progressive interest.

  8. #34
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    Re: 2020 Rep POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by selmaborntidefan View Post
    Now - contra 81 - I don't see any kind of landslide simply because this is not the country where that can happen anymore. No candidate has topped 400 EVs since Bush in 1988, and the country was so different then that you have to remember Bush won California AND New Jersey AND Illinois.....none of which Trump has a prayer of winning.
    https://www.businessinsider.com/stat...ollege-votes-3

    This is my reason for "landslide". By creating this monster you have now unleashed the conservative voter in 5 huge Democratic states who have been sitting at home since 1984. Lets say Biden wins the DNC, and the same Bernie or busters stay at home. Remember there is enough registered Republicans in New York, Illinois, California, Maryland, and Massachusetts to change the popular vote. Trump wasn't that far off from it in 2016, and don't think for a second that he is incapable of swinging it with all of these new conservative voters in dominated democratic states . By definition if he was to win the popular vote (like W did on his 2nd try) it would be a landslide electoral victory because all of those states have pledged EC votes.
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  9. #35
    BamaNation Hall of Fame selmaborntidefan's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Rep POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by UAH View Post
    Yes. I do see that as a big issue. Voters on the left sitting on their hands or voting for minor third party rather than make the practical step of forming a governing coalition and gaining political clout. This allows someone who lost the popular vote to sit in the WH who basically annihilates progressive interest.
    As shocking as this is going to be....let me defend progressives here (a term that quite frankly is as meaningless as conservative or liberal these days).

    They have a dilemma on their hands right now. While I've never been a fan of Nancy Pelosi, I have to confess she has impressed me lately with her attempts to smack the party on both sides and push them towards something resembling the center. Their problem is the same problem the Republicans have (and will have in 2024 regardless): too many disparate opinions that shriek loudly about being the voice of the party.

    I think Pelosi is both a liberal AND a pragmatist - I think her thought (and many in the party) basically says, "Let's just get someone who can beat Trump and get him gone because we can worry about ideology later." I think several on this board have the same view.

    The problem is the people who are clones of AOC and think like her (note: I'm using her as an obvious point of reference) - they are SO SURE they will win in 2020 on the logic of "now that they've seen Trump in office, there's no way he'll win again so let's get a REAL hardcore socialist Green New Deal advocate." What's funny is that I'm old enough to remember that exact same line of reasoning (Pelosi's) with nominating John Kerry. Howard Dean - who admittedly came across as a bit of a nut - had to be stopped because he was going to ruin any chance they had at taking back either House. So the party threw in with Kerry, but their entire enthusiasm was "well, I'm not high on Kerry, but Bush has to go."

    And then Kerry lost. And then the hardcore libs who supported Dean got angry about it and basically said Kerry wasn't progressive enough. (It's the same argument the Repubs have every time they lose).

    What a lot of people don't realize - especially now - is that the Left was not all that high on Bill Clinton in 1992. This was a guy who actually left New Hampshire and assented to the execution of a lobotomized black man. Clinton was pro-death penalty, at the time he had a traditional Southern record on gun control (as in he wasn't for very much), he had a wretched environmental record (part of why he chose Gore), and he talked about how welfare recipients should show "responsibility" by finding work and offering training. Clinton could never have been the nominee in 1984 or 1988 with those positions (or - quite frankly - now). But then it became a case of "well, he can't be any worse to liberals than Bush has been" so many bought it. And Clinton WAS a good candidate on the stump, plus he was willing to lie about that middle class tax cut - and he had immunity on that one since Bush had infamously said "read my lips." My point? With the right candidate regardless of "how far left," maybe they can do it.


    I think Biden's problem is that he's been around too long, and he has a record that his opponents can shred in the primaries. Look at the fratricide going on right now......Biden is now somehow responsible for Anita Hill, and most of the people shooting their mouths off about that are not even old enough to know what all went on with that issue or the delicate political balance between racism and sexism (or the fact Hill's supposed star witness, Judge Susan Hoerchner, claimed Hill had accused "an unnamed supervisor" of harassment at a time she had yet to even meet Clarence Thomas).

    And btw - Biden came out of that hearing with a 63% approval rating for his handling of it. That means a lot of non-partisans and Republicans approved of what he did.
    My New Year's resolution for 2019 is this year I'm not going to drink anymore. I'm not going to drink any less, either.

    I was married for 25 years, but if I'd killed her on the honeymoon, I'd have been out in less than 20.

    Butch Jones has richly earned his title, The Archbishop of Talentbury

    After reading all the horrible things drinking will do to you....I gave up reading.

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    Re: 2020 Rep POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 81usaf92 View Post
    https://www.businessinsider.com/stat...ollege-votes-3

    This is my reason for "landslide". By creating this monster you have now unleashed the conservative voter in 5 huge Democratic states who have been sitting at home since 1984. Lets say Biden wins the DNC, and the same Bernie or busters stay at home. Remember there is enough registered Republicans in New York, Illinois, California, Maryland, and Massachusetts to change the popular vote. Trump wasn't that far off from it in 2016, and don't think for a second that he is incapable of swinging it with all of these new conservative voters in dominated democratic states . By definition if he was to win the popular vote (like W did on his 2nd try) it would be a landslide electoral victory because all of those states have pledged EC votes.

    OK, I see what you're saying, but I doubt this attempt is even legal anyway.
    My New Year's resolution for 2019 is this year I'm not going to drink anymore. I'm not going to drink any less, either.

    I was married for 25 years, but if I'd killed her on the honeymoon, I'd have been out in less than 20.

    Butch Jones has richly earned his title, The Archbishop of Talentbury

    After reading all the horrible things drinking will do to you....I gave up reading.

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    Re: 2020 Rep POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by UAH View Post
    Yes. I do see that as a big issue. Voters on the left sitting on their hands or voting for minor third party rather than make the practical step of forming a governing coalition and gaining political clout. This allows someone who lost the popular vote to sit in the WH who basically annihilates progressive interest.

    Well tbf, I doubt Biden would be seen as trying to stack the deck in the primaries or Convention. Surely he's not dumb enough to actually have that stuff in an email somewhere a la Debbie Schultz.....(someone mark this post for a year from now.....)
    My New Year's resolution for 2019 is this year I'm not going to drink anymore. I'm not going to drink any less, either.

    I was married for 25 years, but if I'd killed her on the honeymoon, I'd have been out in less than 20.

    Butch Jones has richly earned his title, The Archbishop of Talentbury

    After reading all the horrible things drinking will do to you....I gave up reading.

  12. #38
    Senior Administrator TIDE-HSV's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Rep POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    Quote Originally Posted by UAH View Post
    The two considerations that I would add to your analysis are the facts that North Korea is likely to become a bigger more difficult problem. Bolton has been an advocate for war with North Korea and Iran for decades and I am not sure that Trump is in control of that at all.

    With the floods in the Midwest and the loss of grain sales to China the farm belt is not doing well at all economically. Republicans will likely win in the traditional red states but not without doing something to address farmer concerns and right now there is no funding to rebuild the dykes and no agreement with China.

    With his unfavorable ratings would we expect Trump to win Wisconsin or Pennsylvania against Biden? This is the opponent that concerns him the most. If we put Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the blue column then it appears the race is for Florida and it will be close with any of the top polling Democratic candidates. Admittedly Biden is not popular with the progressives here but we will see it play out one way or the other.

    The economy and markets are running on fumes now. Energy prices are already up significantly due to Iran sanctions (A Trump tax in addition to the tariffs and farm penalty) Debt and debt service is enormous levels in all public and private sectors! Can he manage to pump more air into the balloon?

    If he does manage another four years my guess it that he would leave office as one of the most unpopular Presidents (ever?).
    He's plumping this morning via tweets for the Fed to cut interest rates - in the middle of a boom. Enough Harrison Cain's and he can probably win that war. And then - "I won't be here anyway"...
    Last edited by TIDE-HSV; April 21st, 2019 at 06:58 PM.
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  13. #39
    BamaNation Hall of Fame GrayTide's Avatar
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    Re: 2020 Rep POTUS candidate catch all discussion thread

    I think Pelosi is both a liberal AND a pragmatist - I think her thought (and many in the party) basically says, "Let's just get someone who can beat Trump and get him gone because we can worry about ideology later." I think several on this board have the same view.


    I agree, Bill and I am one of the several on Tidefans who agree with this view. Nothing is more important, IMO than removing Trump from the WH. To me it is quite simple, if Biden or another moderate candidate gets the Dems nomination then the AOC and Bernie crowds have three options, vote for Biden(or other moderate Dem) or Trump or sit at home and not vote which would be a vote for Trump. I do believe the time for ideology is after the scourge in the WH is back in NYC dealing with the SDNY.
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    "The past is never dead. It's not even past." William Faulkner

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