No.Anyone think trump dumps pence if the Dems run a minority or female for either President or Vice President?
We already have a dead man in the White House.That would be interesting.......
You want to know what's more likely?Why I think Trump may not run for re-election:
It's just a theory I have. Anything, of course, can happen.
We all know the president has a ginormous ego. While I feel he really enjoys being POTUS and along with that campaigning, I also think the time may come when he says "Screw it - I'm done!"
He can do that because he isn't a politician by trade. He has options and they are quite different than most of who we consider to be politicians.
I also never understood with so much time left before 2020 everyone seems to take it for granted he would run for re-election. Then you toss in the Mueller investigation and I think that leaves the future a bit in the air.
It wouldn't surprise me either way - but gotta leave the door open for what could happen
I would say he doesn't just win, but he probably has a landslide victory. I just think he has a very united, committed, and excited base. While the Democrats are still fighting over how to properly cook eggs, instead of worrying about the guy stealing their eggs out of the henhouse.I think Trump runs and - and I take no joy in this - he's the odds on favorite right now. The economy is booming, and we are not in a shooting war with body bags coming home. Sure, you can call Trump a liar (accurately) but guess what? People are people - and how long do you think it's going to take Trump to find a lie(s) his opponent told IF the opponent actually tries that old "I'm the honest person in this race."
Crane’s sex life made Trump look like a virgin.We already have a dead man in the White House.
The two considerations that I would add to your analysis are the facts that North Korea is likely to become a bigger more difficult problem. Bolton has been an advocate for war with North Korea and Iran for decades and I am not sure that Trump is in control of that at all.You want to know what's more likely?
Trump trailing in the polls a week before the election and then announcing he's withdrawing because "the game is rigged."
I fully expected that to happen last time. Everyone be honest - would it have surprised you if Trump withdrew on the Sunday before the election and THEN announced that he and Hillary had cooked up the whole thing to clear her path to the White House? (I'm not saying this would have been or was true - I'm saying him claiming it should not surprise anyone).
Trump is not Bob Dole or Walter Mondale or Barry Goldwater. Those men - whatever their flaws - knew they were going to lose, but they understood that they had an obligation to the Congressional supporters and the party that nominated them to fake it and act like they thought they had a chance and to minimize damage down ballot.
Donald Trump has zero loyalty to anyone, including any of his wives. He's the kind of guy that would quit and blame a rigged game, make up an absolutely insane charge against the opponent - and then demand his Justice Dept investigate the "fraud perpetrated on the American people."
I think Trump runs and - and I take no joy in this - he's the odds on favorite right now. The economy is booming, and we are not in a shooting war with body bags coming home. Sure, you can call Trump a liar (accurately) but guess what? People are people - and how long do you think it's going to take Trump to find a lie(s) his opponent told IF the opponent actually tries that old "I'm the honest person in this race."
But here is the problem with Biden... He will instantly be the favorite amongst the super delegates. You would probably say "what's the problem with that?". The issue is that a huge portion of the excitement within the the democratic base is now leaning toward the Bernie side, and despise mainstreamers like Biden as much as they do conservatives. This is one of my big issues with this huge field of candidates. The mainstreamers are going to unite behind 1 candidate, while the far lefters are going to be choosing between 5-10 different candidates. Once those voters see that Biden leading through the 1st 5 states, and getting help from the SD then they are going to call "foul" instead of blaming all these morons for polluting the ballot. The same Bernie Busters will stay at home again. Does that ensure a Trump victory? No, but it is probably going to be another nail bitter.With the floods in the Midwest and the loss of grain sales to China the farm belt is not doing well at all economically. Republicans will likely win in the traditional red states but not without doing something to address farmer concerns and right now there is no funding to rebuild the dykes and no agreement with China.
With his unfavorable ratings would we expect Trump to win Wisconsin or Pennsylvania against Biden? This is the opponent that concerns him the most. If we put Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the blue column then it appears the race is for Florida and it will be close with any of the top polling Democratic candidates. Admittedly Biden is not popular with the progressives here but we will see it play out one way or the other.
I'll be blunt - I think Col Bone Spurs is too cowardly to ever actually pull the trigger on anything.The two considerations that I would add to your analysis are the facts that North Korea is likely to become a bigger more difficult problem. Bolton has been an advocate for war with North Korea and Iran for decades and I am not sure that Trump is in control of that at all.
The average voter doesn't understand this. I'm not arguing at all with your points.With the floods in the Midwest and the loss of grain sales to China the farm belt is not doing well at all economically. Republicans will likely win in the traditional red states but not without doing something to address farmer concerns and right now there is no funding to rebuild the dykes and no agreement with China.
Biden would likely carry PA since he's actually from Scranton. And tbf - Hillary probably could have carried Wisconsin had she, you know, not colluded with the Russians to not go there.With his unfavorable ratings would we expect Trump to win Wisconsin or Pennsylvania against Biden? This is the opponent that concerns him the most. If we put Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the blue column then it appears the race is for Florida and it will be close with any of the top polling Democratic candidates. Admittedly Biden is not popular with the progressives here but we will see it play out one way or the other.
Well, I don't know any more on that score than anyone else does. I've just seen too many politicians dead to rights who got re-elected.The economy and markets are running on fumes now. Energy prices are already up significantly due to Iran sanctions (A Trump tax in addition to the tariffs and farm penalty) Debt and debt service is enormous levels in all public and private sectors! Can he manage to pump more air into the balloon?
If he does manage another four years my guess it that he would leave office as one of the most unpopular Presidents (ever?).
If he does manage another four years my guess it that he would leave office as one of the most unpopular Presidents (ever?).
Yes. I do see that as a big issue. Voters on the left sitting on their hands or voting for minor third party rather than make the practical step of forming a governing coalition and gaining political clout. This allows someone who lost the popular vote to sit in the WH who basically annihilates progressive interest.But here is the problem with Biden... He will instantly be the favorite amongst the super delegates. You would probably say "what's the problem with that?". The issue is that a huge portion of the excitement within the the democratic base is now leaning toward the Bernie side, and despise mainstreamers like Biden as much as they do conservatives. This is one of my big issues with this huge field of candidates. The mainstreamers are going to unite behind 1 candidate, while the far lefters are going to be choosing between 5-10 different candidates. Once those voters see that Biden leading through the 1st 5 states, and getting help from the SD then they are going to call "foul" instead of blaming all these morons for polluting the ballot. The same Bernie Busters will stay at home again. Does that ensure a Trump victory? No, but it is probably going to be another nail bitter.
Biden is the best candidate to take down the Don, but picking him is only slightly better than picking Hillary in 2016. I don't have any faith Bernie or Warren could do the job whatsoever, Buttgieg and Kamala I don't think will win anything because of the over populated field, and all the others are not worth mentioning.
https://www.businessinsider.com/sta...n-2019-it-has-three-electoral-college-votes-3Now - contra 81 - I don't see any kind of landslide simply because this is not the country where that can happen anymore. No candidate has topped 400 EVs since Bush in 1988, and the country was so different then that you have to remember Bush won California AND New Jersey AND Illinois.....none of which Trump has a prayer of winning.
As shocking as this is going to be....let me defend progressives here (a term that quite frankly is as meaningless as conservative or liberal these days).Yes. I do see that as a big issue. Voters on the left sitting on their hands or voting for minor third party rather than make the practical step of forming a governing coalition and gaining political clout. This allows someone who lost the popular vote to sit in the WH who basically annihilates progressive interest.
https://www.businessinsider.com/sta...n-2019-it-has-three-electoral-college-votes-3
This is my reason for "landslide". By creating this monster you have now unleashed the conservative voter in 5 huge Democratic states who have been sitting at home since 1984. Lets say Biden wins the DNC, and the same Bernie or busters stay at home. Remember there is enough registered Republicans in New York, Illinois, California, Maryland, and Massachusetts to change the popular vote. Trump wasn't that far off from it in 2016, and don't think for a second that he is incapable of swinging it with all of these new conservative voters in dominated democratic states . By definition if he was to win the popular vote (like W did on his 2nd try) it would be a landslide electoral victory because all of those states have pledged EC votes.
Yes. I do see that as a big issue. Voters on the left sitting on their hands or voting for minor third party rather than make the practical step of forming a governing coalition and gaining political clout. This allows someone who lost the popular vote to sit in the WH who basically annihilates progressive interest.
He's plumping this morning via tweets for the Fed to cut interest rates - in the middle of a boom. Enough Harrison Cain's and he can probably win that war. And then - "I won't be here anyway"...The two considerations that I would add to your analysis are the facts that North Korea is likely to become a bigger more difficult problem. Bolton has been an advocate for war with North Korea and Iran for decades and I am not sure that Trump is in control of that at all.
With the floods in the Midwest and the loss of grain sales to China the farm belt is not doing well at all economically. Republicans will likely win in the traditional red states but not without doing something to address farmer concerns and right now there is no funding to rebuild the dykes and no agreement with China.
With his unfavorable ratings would we expect Trump to win Wisconsin or Pennsylvania against Biden? This is the opponent that concerns him the most. If we put Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in the blue column then it appears the race is for Florida and it will be close with any of the top polling Democratic candidates. Admittedly Biden is not popular with the progressives here but we will see it play out one way or the other.
The economy and markets are running on fumes now. Energy prices are already up significantly due to Iran sanctions (A Trump tax in addition to the tariffs and farm penalty) Debt and debt service is enormous levels in all public and private sectors! Can he manage to pump more air into the balloon?
If he does manage another four years my guess it that he would leave office as one of the most unpopular Presidents (ever?).
I think Bernie fans and TYT supporters are already gearing up not to vote unless the candidate is Bernie...I think Pelosi is both a liberal AND a pragmatist - I think her thought (and many in the party) basically says, "Let's just get someone who can beat Trump and get him gone because we can worry about ideology later." I think several on this board have the same view.
I agree, Bill and I am one of the several on Tidefans who agree with this view. Nothing is more important, IMO than removing Trump from the WH. To me it is quite simple, if Biden or another moderate candidate gets the Dems nomination then the AOC and Bernie crowds have three options, vote for Biden(or other moderate Dem) or Trump or sit at home and not vote which would be a vote for Trump. I do believe the time for ideology is after the scourge in the WH is back in NYC dealing with the SDNY.