Where Things Stand in the SEC

RTR91 · Feb 27, 2019

With three games remaining, time to start looking at the SEC standings better to get an idea of seeding.

After the win last night, Alabama sits at 8-7 in conference play. Alabama is - at worse - a 9 seed as long as it doesn't go 0-3 to end the season.

The top three seed are all but locked in with UT, UK, and LSU. Then, things get interesting.

Ole Miss: 9-5
Mississippi State: 9-6
South Carolina: 9-6
Florida: 8-6
Alabama: 8-7
Auburn: 7-7

Alabama holds the tiebreaker over two of those teams, split with one, lost to one, and has a second game against the fifth one.

The remaining schedule is key.

Tonight:

UT @ Ole Miss
Florida @ Vandy
Auburn @ UGA

Saturday:

LSU @ Alabama
Ole Miss @ Arkansas
UK @ UT
South Carolina @ Missouri
Mississippi State @ Auburn
Vandy @ TAMU
UGA @ Florida

3/5:

South Carolina @ TAMU
Auburn @ Alabama
Mississippi State @ UT
UK @ Ole Miss

3/6:

Missouri @ UGA
LSU @ Florida
Arkansas @ Vandy

3/9:

UT @ Auburn
UGA @ South Carolina
TAMU @ Mississippi State
Florida @ UK
Ole Miss @ Missouri
Alabama @ Arkansas
Vandy @ LSU

The best thing for Alabama is to go 3-0 and let the chips fall. Other than that obvious answer, how do you see it playing out?

JBama_in_PCOLA · Feb 27, 2019

A big win against LSU would go a long way. Bama always plays ranked teams tough plus we have them at home, including Auburn.

day-day · Feb 27, 2019

I don't really want to know the tiebreaker formulas right now; only when it becomes a factor. So many things have to right for Bama to get to number 4 spot. The game against Auburn is the only game in the next three in which Bama can directly impact the standings of the teams in the pack.

Unless I'm missing something there is no interaction remaining for any of the teams in the pack except AU plays Bama and MSU.

imauafan · Feb 27, 2019

Out of those teams USC has the easiest schedule, Mizzou, UGA, and aTm although 2 of those games are on the road but they *should* be the favorite in all of those games. LSU, AU, and Arky are all games that we will need to be playing our best to win but they are all games that we can win if we play up to our ability.

CajunCrimson · Feb 27, 2019

I think the hardest of the three is that Hell-Hole in Arkansas.

I think we push LSU to the wire and get revenge against Auburn. That game was pure adrenaline and got away from us fast. I think in T-Town it's a different situation.

I think we go 2-1 -- losing to Arkansas

We may need the extra game.....by not being a top 4 seed

CrimsonForce · Feb 27, 2019

The only scenario that would surprise me is if we go 3-0 to close out the season. I think 1-2 is most likely with the next likeliest being 0-3. We will be an underdog in every game..

CrimsonForce · Feb 27, 2019

So who should we be pulling for tonight? I'm assuming Tennessee to beat Ole Miss, Georgia to beat Auburn and Vanderbilt to beat Florida? Seems like that would push us up equal to or over Auburn and Vanderbilt and one game close to Ole Miss..

Bama-94-00 · Feb 27, 2019

Bama needs to get 2 of these last 3 games, in my opinion. That'll probably take wins over AU and Ark.

RTR91 · Feb 27, 2019

CrimsonForce said:
So who should we be pulling for tonight? I'm assuming Tennessee to beat Ole Miss, Georgia to beat Auburn and Vanderbilt to beat Florida? Seems like that would push us up equal to or over Auburn and Vanderbilt and one game close to Ole Miss..

Yep.

Alabama's needs at the moment (working with best case scenario of Alabama finishing 2-1 or 3-0):

Ole Miss to lose two or three of its last four
State to lose two or all of its final three
South Carolina to lose at least one of its final three
Florida to lose at least two (preferably three because it would help Alabama's NCAA chances)
Auburn to go 0-4 just because we don't want Auburn to win ever (really need them 2-2)

TiderJack · Feb 27, 2019

CrimsonForce said:
The only scenario that would surprise me is if we go 3-0 to close out the season. I think 1-2 is most likely with the next likeliest being 0-3. We will be an underdog in every game..

I will be surprised if we are an underdog to the Barn. LSU may be favored but it won't be a large line. However, I am leaning toward 1-2 also but 2-1 or 3-0 would not shock me. 0-3 would be the only record that would shock me.

CrimsonForce · Feb 27, 2019

TiderJack said:
I will be surprised if we are an underdog to the Barn. LSU may be favored but it won't be a large line. However, I am leaning toward 1-2 also but 2-1 or 3-0 would not shock me. 0-3 would be the only record that would shock me.

How would 0-3 be surprising when we fall apart in February every year? We're playing 1 really good team and 2 other quality teams. We will have to bring our A performance in every game or we will lose. How many times under CAJ have we played an A game 3 times in a row? I hope we win all 3 but realistically we're more likely to lose all 3 then win all 3. My prediction is 1-2 or 0-3. Guess we just disagree because the biggest shock to me would be going 3-0..

RTR91 · Feb 27, 2019

CrimsonForce said:
How would 0-3 be surprising when we fall apart in February every year? We're playing 1 really good team and 2 other quality teams. We will have to bring our A performance in every game or we will lose. How many times under CAJ have we played an A game 3 times in a row? I hope we win all 3 but realistically we're more likely to lose all 3 then win all 3. My prediction is 1-2 or 0-3. Guess we just disagree because the biggest shock to me would be going 3-0..

Arkansas being on the road makes it more questionable than it should be. They are the opposite of South Carolina - strong early start and be crap in conference play.

As far as falling apart in February, here's the breakdown for those not familiar:

2016: 6-2 (0-2 in March)
2017: 3-5 (1-1 in March)
2018: 3-4 (0-1 in March and ended on a 5 game losing streak)
2019: 4-4

BAMAVILLE · Feb 27, 2019

RTR91 said:
Yep.

Alabama's needs at the moment (working with best case scenario of Alabama finishing 2-1 or 3-0):

Ole Miss to lose two or three of its last four

State to lose two or all of its final three

South Carolina to lose at least one of its final three

Florida to lose at least two (preferably three because it would help Alabama's NCAA chances)

Auburn to go 0-4 just because we don't want Auburn to win ever (really need them 2-2)

I agree with this one ... I hate we didn't take advantage of getting the wins we needed against TAMU, LSU and MSU. They would have gave us more cushion but hindsight is 20/20 at times. I think if we go 2-1 we're in. I would rather just go in and win all three to be honest.

BamaMike05 · Feb 27, 2019

RTR91 said:
Yep.

Alabama's needs at the moment (working with best case scenario of Alabama finishing 2-1 or 3-0):

Ole Miss to lose two or three of its last four

State to lose two or all of its final three

South Carolina to lose at least one of its final three

Florida to lose at least two (preferably three because it would help Alabama's NCAA chances)

Auburn to go 0-4 just because we don't want Auburn to win ever (really need them 2-2)

We pretty much have to go 3-0 to get the 4 seed in the conference tourney.

Also, on the other hand, with Ole Miss and Tennessee, a few Ole Miss wins in a row and we have ourselves another Quad 1 win.

I would definitely prefer us being the 4 seed, however. I’m just saying another Quad 1 win wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

TiderJack · Feb 27, 2019

CrimsonForce said:
How would 0-3 be surprising when we fall apart in February every year? We're playing 1 really good team and 2 other quality teams. We will have to bring our A performance in every game or we will lose. How many times under CAJ have we played an A game 3 times in a row? I hope we win all 3 but realistically we're more likely to lose all 3 then win all 3. My prediction is 1-2 or 0-3. Guess we just disagree because the biggest shock to me would be going 3-0..

We do just disagree. I have said in several threads that winning creates momentum and confidence and I think with us winning our last two games and with the tournament on the line I would be surprised if we went 0-3. We may lose to LSWho since they are a very good team (that we played tough on their court earlier in the year) and Ark on the road but losing to the Barn at home after they embarrassed us earlier this year on Senior day would surprise me big time.

imauafan · Feb 27, 2019

TiderJack said:
We do just disagree. I have said in several threads that winning creates momentum and confidence and I think with us winning our last two games and with the tournament on the line I would be surprised if we went 0-3. We may lose to LSWho since they are a very good team (that we played tough on their court earlier in the year) and Ark on the road but losing to the Barn at home after they embarrassed us earlier this year on Senior day would surprise me big time.

Senior day is this coming Saturday against LSU, not the following Tuesday against AU.

TiderJack · Feb 27, 2019

imauafan said:
Senior day is this coming Saturday against LSU, not the following Tuesday against AU.

Ah. I thought it was the last home game but I guess it is the last Saturday home game.

RTR91 · Feb 27, 2019

TiderJack said:
Ah. I thought it was the last home game but I guess it is the last Saturday home game.

Was a change this year. Heard Chris Stewart talking about it today on the radio.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

edwd58 · Feb 27, 2019

I think the game we most likely will not win is aubarn. We don't match up well with them and we can't keep up if the game gets into the +70 scoring range as we just don't shoot well enough - especially 3's or FT's. We lost by 21 at their place and I don't think playing at Coleman makes up that much of a difference. I wouldn't mind being totally off base here but I just don't see us winning.

beatthemtigers · Feb 27, 2019

edwd58 said:
I think the game we most likely will not win is aubarn. We don't match up well with them and we can't keep up if the game gets into the +70 scoring range as we just don't shoot well enough - especially 3's or FT's. We lost by 21 at their place and I don't think playing at Coleman makes up that much of a difference. I wouldn't mind being totally off base here but I just don't see us winning.

They whooped us at their home last year too, then we got revenge in the SEC tourney. I feel like it’s a 60/40 chance of winning the Auburn and Ark games but a 40/60 with LSU

Where Things Stand in the SEC

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