AAF may fold

81usaf92 said:

To reiterate NCAA basketball is the dirtiest sport in college. So why would they leave the states when they are getting absurd amount of unregulated money.

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College football and college basketball are not going to be dramatically different. Cam Newton was really well compensated, as were several Ole Miss players, etc...

That aside, it's still simpler than that. College athletics are remarkably well funded, to the tune of hundreds of millions annually being spent in excess of revenue. This carries over to the point that it's not just the best development league for NBA and NFL talent, but for almost every sport there is. Just watch the Olympics, there's plenty of these sports in which people can go pro, yet athlete after athlete, from all over the world mind you, went to various colleges in the United States. The best athletes in most sports, from all over the world come through college athletics here.

That's not coincidence, they come here for a reason, even if they're not getting paid. It is because the resources being made available to them are superior to what they get elsewhere, it is as simple as that in many cases. If you want to see the flip side, take a look at the Ball brother's catastrophic European tour. That's what it looks like when guys decide to ditch the college route.

Saban actually made some statements earlier about people leaving college too earlier, how that's not a good business decision. Think about it the other way, what happens if you go the Ball brothers route? You end up competing with more experienced players, and you look inept and over your head. College athletics actually incubates and protects these guy's development. The constant players leaving due to lack of eligibility (and yes some going pro early) creates a churn that opens up playing time. That doesn't exist in professional leagues where a career can exceed 15 years and where you're not just competing against teenagers and people in their early 20s, but against veterans.

Think about all the 5 stars that went to Alabama that were not an immediate successes, what happens in the XFL? They'd wash out immediately, having lost their amateur status and then what? How many guys are going to gamble their entire careers on that? Not too many, because they're going to make good business decisions for the most part.

I'll try not to derail this further, but the some of the same things that undid the AAF are also why forgoing college for these sort of leagues is not a good idea (and not necessarily something the NFL wants, I think I alluded to some of these things a while ago in the other thread). They have more fans, they can outspend these semi-pro leagues, and they are far better at creating superstars.

KrAzY3 said:

College football and college basketball are not going to be dramatically different. Cam Newton was really well compensated, as were several Ole Miss players, etc...

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If the XFL survives more than 2 years with the ability to have elite 18 year old players then I guarantee you that the NCAAF will be more honest to what really happens behind closed doors in terms of pay for play. Lets face it, Ole Miss wasn't penalized for paying players, they were penalized for making it obvious.

KrAzY3 said:

That aside, it's still simpler than that. College athletics are remarkably well funded, to the tune of hundreds of millions annually being spent in excess of revenue. This carries over to the point that it's not just the best development league for NBA and NFL talent, but for almost every sport there is. Just watch the Olympics, there's plenty of these sports in which people can go pro, yet athlete after athlete, from all over the world mind you, went to various colleges in the United States. The best athletes in most sports, from all over the world come through college athletics here.

That's not coincidence, they come here for a reason, even if they're not getting paid. It is because the resources being made available to them are superior to what they get elsewhere, it is as simple as that in many cases. If you want to see the flip side, take a look at the Ball brother's catastrophic European tour. That's what it looks like when guys decide to ditch the college route.

Saban actually made some statements earlier about people leaving college too earlier, how that's not a good business decision. Think about it the other way, what happens if you go the Ball brothers route? You end up competing with more experienced players, and you look inept and over your head. College athletics actually incubates and protects these guy's development. The constant players leaving due to lack of eligibility (and yes some going pro early) creates a churn that opens up playing time. That doesn't exist in professional leagues where a career can exceed 15 years and where you're not just competing against teenagers and people in their early 20s, but against veterans.
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Nice rant, but how does this relate to an 18 year old that has financial issues and hates school?

KrAzY3 said:

I'll try not to derail this further.

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This is all we do in the offseason so I don't think its a huge issue

KrAzY3 said:

, but some of the same things that undid the AAF are also why forgoing college for these sort of leagues is not a good idea .

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Maybe for well paying P5 teams, but what about that guy that is 6-5 265 pounds in the middle of nowhere in Coosa County Alabama that has really been lost by Auburn and Alabama in recruiting? There are many people in this state alone that are probably better athletes and students than the ones on Alabama and Auburn that are just looked at because of where they went to highschool that are left with offers from UNA, USA, and UAB. Are you really going to tell me that those teams give more exposure than what the XFL will?

The XFL doing this probably wont have a significant impact on the P5, but it will probably have some impact on non P5 schools

I wonder how the XFL will weather a young kid sustaining a gruesome career ending injury and the media and public bemoan the kid not getting at least an education while playing.

Nothing has been said about the structure off the field afforded to players. What is the XFL going to offer in the way of structure off the field to keep these kids out of trouble? DUIs, drugs, or sexual abuse incidents involving would be college age adults will probably do more to undermine the XFL not to mention the outstanding medical care and fitness training players receive in college. Its doubtful the XFL will pay the players enough for them to actually hire that talent around them personally.

If the XFL does get off the ground, I think everyone will start to realize the true benefits of pursuing the sport as a student first rather than just focusing on the money.

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81usaf92 said:

Maybe for well paying P5 teams, but what about that guy that is 6-5 265 pounds in the middle of nowhere in Coosa County Alabama that has really been lost by Auburn and Alabama in recruiting?

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The XFL won't go after him either.

That's the biggest point in all of this. That's why I alluded to 5 stars. The XFL can choose basically from anyone not in the NFL right? They don't have that many teams, spots are fairly limited. Why on earth would they for instance forgo the type of guys we see in the Senior Bowl, or someone who played pre-season NFL in favor of a high school kid that the SEC didn't want?

The high school kids that the XFL would have on their radar are going to be the 5 star, high 4 star type recruits. The guys with the big offer lists, they can't find room for a Javier Arenas who barely got a major offer, almost quit football, and had to learn to be a defensive back in college. They can't take on projects, the type of guys they'd go after would be Leonard Fournette, and in turn guys like Fournette would understand that if they're not an instant success in the XFL or any hypothetical semi-pro league, their career is basically over. They're not going to have the luxury of redshirting, of waiting until their 4th or 5th year to really show development. The XFL isn't going to keep shelling out money for that.

That's also a huge advantage of college that gets overlooked. Colleges can't really just cut someone for not performing, people look at what they see as lack of compensation, but often overlook that college is just about the only place I can think of where someone is going to get 5 full years to perform before his time is up. Professional leagues have to be able to cut people, and even if they have to keep writing a check, they're not going to occupy a roster spot for someone that's not performing at all, they can't afford to.

Let's give an example, Skyler DeLong was seen as a big hot shot punter, one of it not the best coming out of high school right? So let's pretend the XFL signs him. He goes out, and fails to perform. His career is over at that point, that's the end of it. He won't get another season, or years to sort it out. Professionals have to perform, and only leagues where they are heavily invested in a young player on a long contract do they really have the patience to let someone develop. The XFL will never make that sort of investment because they know even if someone does become truly great they'll just move on.

KrAzY3 said:

The XFL won't go after him either.

That's the biggest point in all of this. That's why I alluded to 5 stars. The XFL can choose basically from anyone not in the NFL right? They don't have that many teams, spots are fairly limited. Why on earth would they for instance forgo the type of guys we see in the Senior Bowl, or someone who played pre-season NFL in favor of a high school kid that the SEC didn't want?

The high school kids that the XFL would have on their radar are going to be the 5 star, high 4 star type recruits. The guys with the big offer lists, they can't find room for a Javier Arenas who barely got a major offer, almost quit football, and had to learn to be a defensive back in college. They can't take on projects, the type of guys they'd go after would be Leonard Fournette, and in turn guys like Fournette would understand that if they're not an instant success in the XFL or any hypothetical semi-pro league, their career is basically over. They're not going to have the luxury of redshirting, of waiting until their 4th or 5th year to really show development. The XFL isn't going to keep shelling out money for that.

That's also a huge advantage of college that gets overlooked. Colleges can't really just cut someone for not performing, people look at what they see as lack of compensation, but often overlook that college is just about the only place I can think of where someone is going to get 5 full years to perform before his time is up. Professional leagues have to be able to cut people, and even if they have to keep writing a check, they're not going to occupy a roster spot for someone that's not performing at all, they can't afford to.

Let's give an example, Skyler DeLong was seen as a big hot shot punter, one of it not the best coming out of high school right? So let's pretend the XFL signs him. He goes out, and fails to perform. His career is over at that point, that's the end of it. He won't get another season, or years to sort it out. Professionals have to perform, and only leagues where they are heavily invested in a young player on a long contract do they really have the patience to let someone develop. The XFL will never make that sort of investment because they know even if someone does become truly great they'll just move on.

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The athlete I was referring to was Justin Tuck. Alabama and Auburn had no clue who he was until bob davie went to the wrong central high school. Bob said when he talked to him that he was only considering a place like UNA or a CC. It just shows there are diamonds in the rough that are missed because of what schools they played for. Had Tuck been a little West or east from Kellytown Alabama then he would’ve been a top 10 recruit in the state because he would’ve played at Sylacauga or Ben Russell who get tons of exposure.

Playing at UNA and USA on ESPN+ isn’t offering much exposure to those kids. Vince is rumored to have good negotiations with both ESPN and NBC. If getting to the NFL is the goal then maybe the XFL’s exposure is maybe the better route for players like that. This is assuming the XFL was to survive more than 2-3 years.

JDCrimson said:

I wonder how the XFL will weather a young kid sustaining a gruesome career ending injury and the media and public bemoan the kid not getting at least an education while playing.

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The same way they do now, forget about him. If Prothro doesn't make those catches vs Florida or the USM catch the media would have never followed him but he was a fan favorite so the media followed him until he was working at Regions Bank. He's the rare exception that stayed enrolled and got his degree, most kids would NOT do that, free scholarship or not.

81usaf92 said:

The athlete I was referring to was Justin Tuck. Alabama and Auburn had no clue who he was until bob davie went to the wrong central high school. Bob said when he talked to him that he was only considering a place like UNA or a CC. It just shows there are diamonds in the rough that are missed because of what schools they played for. Had Tuck been a little West or east from Kellytown Alabama then he would’ve been a top 10 recruit in the state because he would’ve played at Sylacauga or Ben Russell who get tons of exposure.

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His recruitment always surprised me. He was well known all over Talladega/Coosa Counties, so his story makes you wonder. I admit I never knew his true story though.

230kv_barehand said:

His recruitment always surprised me. He was well known all over Talladega/Coosa Counties, so his story makes you wonder. I admit I never knew his true story though.

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I grew up in Sylacauga, and I knew of him mostly as a basketball player. But then again he really wasn’t the story. It was more of the sideshow behemoth that was apart of the Gerald Wallace-Jemario moon wars between Childersburg and Coosa.

But had he been at Ben Russell or sylacauga he would’ve been on everyone’s radar because he would’ve played more serious competition with Birmingham and Montgomery schools. Coosa back then only played Talladega county and Chilton County schools

But it’s amazing that all it took was Bob Davie stopping at a gas station on HWY to ask “ how far to central high school ( he meant Central Phoniex)”. Wound up at a crap stadium with a bad septic problem across from a cemetery in the middle of nowhere and found a future 2 time super bowl winning player that no one outside of talladega and Coosa county ever heard of.

Can't see any of these upstart leagues surviving without HEAVY support from the NFL, Which I Can't See As A Likely Alternative When They - (The NFL) - Have The Colleges As Their Prime Source Of Talent)...!
It's been tried to many times, with the same results in the end...

81usaf92 said:

The athlete I was referring to was Justin Tuck. Alabama and Auburn had no clue who he was until bob davie went to the wrong central high school. Bob said when he talked to him that he was only considering a place like UNA or a CC. It just shows there are diamonds in the rough that are missed because of what schools they played for.

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Do we think there's anyway that a league like the XFL is going to invest the time and energy into finding them though? I mean the SEC has more resources than the XFL does, if he isn't on the SEC's radar I'm not sure the XFL is going to be able to dig him up either. It goes a bit further than that. While he did play at a big program, so that's a factor, Tuck redshirted and then played sparingly as a sophomore. So we're looking at a scenario where the XFL would need to find someone that they probably overlook, then be patient enough with him until he's ready, only for what would had to have been a brief XFL career.

The CFL doesn't like high school kids either, I've never seen a semi-pro football league that did, and I surmise the reason is it's just more sound financially to invest in someone that's already been developed and coached and proven he can play at a high level. Sure there are the Julio Jones and what not, but they're pretty rare, and that's still a gamble (because for every can't miss 5 star that turned out to be just that I can name one that in the least had slow development). I just can't see it aside from a few guys that are taking what is really an unnecessary risk. They're still just in the XFL until they can get a shot at the NFL, but they lose the safety net college eligibility gives a player.

KrAzY3 said:

Do we think there's anyway that a league like the XFL is going to invest the time and energy into finding them though? I mean the SEC has more resources than the XFL does, if he isn't on the SEC's radar I'm not sure the XFL is going to be able to dig him up either. It goes a bit further than that. While he did play at a big program, so that's a factor, Tuck redshirted and then played sparingly as a sophomore. So we're looking at a scenario where the XFL would need to find someone that they probably overlook, then be patient enough with him until he's ready, only for what would had to have been a brief XFL career.

The CFL doesn't like high school kids either, I've never seen a semi-pro football league that did, and I surmise the reason is it's just more sound financially to invest in someone that's already been developed and coached and proven he can play at a high level. Sure there are the Julio Jones and what not, but they're pretty rare, and that's still a gamble (because for every can't miss 5 star that turned out to be just that I can name one that in the least had slow development). I just can't see it aside from a few guys that are taking what is really an unnecessary risk. They're still just in the XFL until they can get a shot at the NFL, but they lose the safety net college eligibility gives a player.

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Did you ever consider that the kid could find the XFL instead for 200k for 3 years since everyone passed on them? It’s not going to hurt the P5 but choosing between non P5 and better exposure and a decent pay check is a realistic scenario.

81usaf92 said:

Did you ever consider that the kid could find the XFL instead for 200k for 3 years since everyone passed on them? It’s not going to hurt the P5 but choosing between non P5 and better exposure and a decent pay check is a realistic scenario.

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There's a little failure to communicate I think.

They don't get to just choose the XFL, the XFL has to choose them first. I'll entertain the notion that the XFL would have a shot at D2 kids and some of these overlooked guys, but I'm not seeing the incentive to XFL would have to opening up a roster spot to them.

I think the SEC will have more teams right? On top of that the SEC can teams accommodate 85 scholarship players, so the total number of slots available to the SEC will probably double what the XFL has, and we're just talking the SEC, there's still the other power conferences.

So, space in the XFL will be rather limited, there's not a whole lot of roster spots to go around. While the SEC has a limited pool of college eligible players to go after, the XFL has a far more vast number of players available, they can sign anyone not in the NFL basically. So, how do they end up deciding to give some guy that's a project a shot out of high school, someone even the SEC passed on? The XFL won't redshirt guys, their three year contracts will dictate immediate results, they've just got no incentive to do anything other than to sign guys they believe can be instant contributors.

There's really only a narrow sliver of guys who might actually be better served by the XFL who the XFL would also want to sign.

I watched a little of the AAF games. The competition level wasn't all that bad. A lot of journeymen NFL players, and guys who might not have gotten their shot yet at the big time.

I hate it that these leagues appear and disappear every few years. And for cities like Birmingham, Memphis and San Antonio, just another tease from their dreams of one day having an NFL franchise.

We have seen this movie so many times. I (for one) would like a diversion this time of year. Golf, hockey, baseball aren't my favorite spectator sports.

Its On A Slab said:

I watched a little of the AAF games. The competition level wasn't all that bad. A lot of journeymen NFL players, and guys who might not have gotten their shot yet at the big time.

I hate it that these leagues appear and disappear every few years. And for cities like Birmingham, Memphis and San Antonio, just another tease from their dreams of one day having an NFL franchise.

We have seen this movie so many times. I (for one) would like a diversion this time of year. Golf, hockey, baseball aren't my favorite spectator sports.

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San Antonio not having an NFL team is a real head scratcher but San Diego and St. Louis are too. I'd love to see another league make it just to stick it to the NFL.

Suppose some high school star decides to take the money and go to the XFL. Then at the end of the season, the league pulls the plug. Now the guy has no job and no chance to go to the NFL r two years.

Or what if he suffers a severe injury and can never play again At least in college he can finish his education. Think the XFL will help out in that situation?

I think there is a portion of kids that are being overlooked. What about kids that can't get into college because of grades, or test scores? Kids that either put in no effort in school or had un-diagnosed learning disabilities. They may not be educated enough to go to college but they put their heart and soul into sports. I saw this first hand with my older brother. He was being recruited by Louisville but he passed because he knew he couldn't make it in college. He spent his entire life preferring the ease of remedial classes instead of putting in effort. People couldn't keep up with him on the football field because he cared about it. How many kids have you seen in high school sports that you felt was one of the best you had seen but they never went anywhere?

https://twitter.com/abc/status/1116762294518800384

RTR91 said:

https://twitter.com/abc/status/1116762294518800384

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Oh Lord, now they playing with other peoples money!! This is going to get real nasty!

Meanwhile, 44 have moved on to the NFL.